Baseball Predictions - August 13, 2008

While we hit with our 4-unit play, we finished just 1-2 yesterday. Today we are back with a stacked card of six plays.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Baltimore at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland -104 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.9)

This game is about who's hot and who's not. The Birds certainly aren't the hot team coming into this one. They have dropped three straight including the first two in this series. They have given up 35 runs over the three games so the bullpen is a mess and overworked, having logged 13 innings of work over the three games. Jeremy Guthrie has pitched over his head of late, but his only outing against the Tribe in his career left him with a 40.50 ERA. OUCH! Anthony Reyes came out of the pen to make his first start of the season and allowed just a single run on the road against Toronto in 6.1 innings. The Indians’ bats have caught fire and with that has come a five-game winning streak. We will ride them while they are hot at home against the O's.

The Cubs had a bad stretch that saw them go 15-18. The before and after tells the real story of this team and that team went 57-29, and currently on a 13-5 run since the bad streak. They have now also won their last five on the road. Rich Harden was brought in to add another ace to the staff and has proven two things in his career. First - he generally doesn't stay health. However, the second is that when he does, he is 37-20 in his career and he simply wins games. He is now on a team that wins a lot of games and pitching better than he has his entire career with an ERA of 2.27. Jorge Campillo has become the ace of the Braves’ staff, but is that good enough on a bad team against a very good team? The answer is found in this stat. The Braves just don't hit enough and are a major-league worst 6-24 in one-run games. In a game where runs may be at a premium, which side would you rather be on? Our choice is the Cubs in game two.

The Nationals had their good run when they went on a mini tear winning six of seven games. The before and after shows more about the reality of this team as they were 4-19 leading into the streak and 0-5 coming out of it, or 4-24 all together. The fact is that this team simply does not win many games. They have also been unable to find the win column period against a team with a winning record where they are now 0-13 the last 13 times they have met a team over .500. The Nats have been just 4-15 in Jason Bergman's 19 starts on the season. The Mets’ starting pitching has been very good, but the pen has crashed and burned several games, but even the Mets’ pen was able to shut down the punchless Nats last night. We like them here as well in game 2.

The White Sox have limped into the dog days of August, and have watched their lead in the AL Central reduced to the slimmest of margins - just a half game ahead of the surging Twins. That margin has been reduced due to a lackluster 13-15 stretch the Sox have posted over the last month or so. Throw in a Mark Buehrle that has struggled all season, just 11-12 in his starts with the White Sox, and a recent 7.16 ERA over his last three starts and you have a recipe for an upset. Throw into that mix the fact that the Royals have feasted on LHP to the tune of a 22-16 mark against a woeful 32-48 mark against RHP, and the dog has some life in this contest as well as value. With all that to offer, and in this hefty price range, the dog has its day in Chicago. The Royals get the call.

This game doesn't make a lot of sense to us. The Rays are for real, and with just 40 or so games left, a fade is not likely. Once a part of wildcard talk and discussions the A’s sent Harden to the NL, and sent their fans home disappointed in 21 of their last 25 games. So now they are favored by a decent margin over the second-best team in the AL? It is only happening because the cap says Rays. If it said Boston or New York, with the record of the Rays, what would be the moneyline here? That is exactly why there is value here! It may also be because of Justin Duchscherer who has a 2.51 ERA, but that hasn't been made recently. He has never worked more than 96 innings in a big league uniform, and his total has reached 132. Since he reached the 100-inning mark his ERA went from 1.82 to 4.83! Do you think he is hitting the wall? We do, and we will ride the Rays with a load of value in this one.

The Dodgers have not gotten the type of year out of Brad Penny as they did last year, but his numbers are a bit distorted as he carries a king-size 5.66 ERA into this one. Penny had a bad shoulder and tried to pitch through it and got torched for several games, but he returned in his early-season form, and last year's form, by allowing just one run in five innings. We expect the value to be the greatest on him now, because of the illusion of his bad numbers. Joe Blanton was brought over from Oakland to strengthen the Philly staff. This guy is just an average pitcher with a career ERA of 4.22 having a bad season at 4.71, and an overall record of 6-12. We like the fact that Penny is below the radar here and a great shot at the Dodgers to score big on the runline.

Results: 3-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our blog mlb picks here.
• Updated today: MLB Baseball odds and lines.
• Don't forget to read our baseball ATS recrds here.
• Check out our updated 2008 MLB picks results.
• Read our 2008 MLB preview here.
• Take a look at our MLB baseball handicapping philosophy here.
• Here we show our mlb predictions.
• Here we show our mlb sports book.
• View our Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Updated today: MLB picks.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-12-2008
No one could have predicted that Kyle Lohse would be sitting at 13-4 for the Cardinals at this point. The Cards took a flier on him as a free agent and it has paid huge dividends for them. Lohse had a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2008
If the Nats were going to steal one in this series they missed their opportunity. They took a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth, and ended up on the losing end, dropping their third straight here...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2008
We were on the Red Sox last night as they notched the win. We're flipping over to Chicago for game three in this four game series. Yesterday's loss was costly for Chicago as they lost Jose Con...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2008
It is hard to pass this one up. As good as Roy Halladay has been of late, Paul Byrd has been even better. Byrd is pitching to a 0.90 ERA over his last three starts and getting this kind of dog value w...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2008
Like any good team the Cubs are prone to having a "hiccup" during the course of a 162-game season and they have experienced theirs. The Cubs went 15-18 for a stretch, but the before and afte...