Baseball Betting Pick - August 13, 2007

2-1 yesterday with Arizona giving up six runs in the last two innings to spoil the perfect day. We like the board tonight and are going with five selections...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +103 (risk 3 to win 3.1)

Pittsburgh has to be confident here after sweeping the Giants at AT&T, while outscoring them 26-10 in the process. They handled San Francisco on the road, and they can definitely handle them here at home. The Giants, a terrible road team, will be without Barry Bonds today. That's not good for an offense that scores 4-runs per game (RPG) against lefties and is averaging 3.6-rpg over their last seven games. Paul Maholm starts for Pittsburgh and a win keeps him from becoming the NL's first 15-game loser. He'll be facing Matt Cain who has been quite good this season although the Giants are 5-18 with him starting this season. That record tells you what kind of run support he's getting. San Francisco is just 11-22 this season on the road at -125 to +125 and 3-9 so far in August. We'll fade the Bonds-less Giants here in game one.

Going against the Yankees right now is suicide? That may be a valid statement, but that's where some of the value comes from in this one. Chien-Ming Wang has not been pitching well lately. In his last 10 starts, Wang has worked 61 innings, allowed 70 hits and sports an ERA close to 5. Every team has another team that they struggle against, and the O's have been that team for the Yankees this year. They are just 3-6 and have been outscored 44-35. The O's are the only team to take a series from the Yankees in their last 11 series. Wang has had no success against the O's who have garnered 46 hits in his last 31.2 innings, and his ERA is a woeful 5.68. The O's are feeling good winning 2 of 3 in Boston. Jeremy Gutherie has out-pitched Wang this season. Gutherie has allowed just two runs in both starts against the Yankees this season. The O's certainly have a chance in this one, and with a moneyline over 200, the value is there.

Detroit's offense stumbled a few times this month but they have also put up games of 5, 6, 9, 10 and 11 runs. They are averaging 5.2-rpg in August, 6.2-rpg their last seven and 8.7 over their last three. Oakland has also been scoring but their defense has been awful too. Despite putting up a lot of runs, they have lost three of five thanks to giving up 37 runs in those five games. The truth is that the A's can't keep up this kind of scoring forever. And when it cools, they will be in severe trouble. Especially with Chad Gaudin on the mound. He's been horrible lately going 0-5 in his last six starts and posting a 7.58 ERA over his last three. Detroit's half-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central is at risk with a loss here so we like them to come out strong and end the series on a positive note.

Jesse Litsch has settled into being a quality starter for the Jays. Litsch has turned in five good outings in a row, and in turn his ERA has been a stellar 2.19. Odalis Perez has had a horrible season, and over his last five games, he has pitched to a 6.57 ERA. The Royals have managed to win just three of his 11 home starts. Last year Perez pitched to an ERA of over six as well, and you have to wonder how many big league starts he has left. The Royals bats have gone cold, as they are just 16-87 in this series, hitting at a .184 clip. The last four games have produced just seven runs and a sub .200 team average. The Jays have a lineup that is dominated by right-handed batters, and have been one of the top moneyline plays in all of baseball against a LHP. The Jays have been playing well, as they have now gone 13-7 over their last 20. The Jays feature not a single hitter with a .300 average against RHP, but offer nine that are .300+ against LHP. We like the Jays to make it 3 of 4 at Kansas City.

The Astros are now 9-2 in Roy Oswalt's last 11 starts and have won his last four. When you look at the numbers it is easy to see why. Oswalt has allowed just two runs total, in his last four starts - good for a microscopic 0.72 ERA. Oswalt is a top pitcher, at the top of his game right now. The Dodgers are mired in their worst slump of the season, and finding the win column has been quite elusive. The Dodgers are now just 6-16 in their last 22 games, and 1-6 in their last seven at home. The offense has been averaging under 2-rpg in their last 10, and suddenly the pitching has allowed 18 runs in their last two, matching the Dodgers’ offensive output over the last 10 games. Getting a pitcher as good and as hot as Oswalt as a dog, against a team struggling to find even one run, is just too much value to pass by.

Results: 2-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated MLB ATS standings.
• Check out our updated MLB Baseball odds lines and spreads.
• View our mlb baseball pick here.
• View Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Check out Baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out 2007 MLB baseball pick season results here.
• View our updated sports betting baseball.
• Check out our updated 2007 baseball betting preivew.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-12-2007
Jake Peavy went through a dead-arm period as most pitchers do. Even with that, he has not allowed more than four runs in a start all season. He's back on track as he's allowed no more than one...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2007
The Red Sox continue to struggle against LHP, especially on the road. The loss last night moves the Red Sox to 4-13 in their last 17 road outings against LHP. As good as Boston's record looks in t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2007
Minnesota is now 3-8 in their last eleven road games. And they have very little offense right now having scored 3 or fewer runs in eleven of their last 14 games overall. They face Kelvim Escobar who h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2007
Not sure how a team that is 1-9 in their last 10 games, and has been shutout three straight, and four of five ends up a favorite, but we will bite. The Dodgers offense has gone as stone cold, as ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2007
The Rockies have played very good baseball of late and at home have become a very lethal team. The Rockies are now 20-5 at home in their last 25 games and 15 of those 20 wins have come to top teams. J...