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Game: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 stars on Cleveland -191 (risk 400 to win 209)

After taking a comfortable 4-2 lead into the ninth yesterday, the Indians let the Royals tie it up. But, in true Royals (road game) fashion, they allowed a late run to secure a win for us on Cleveland. KC starts Luke Hudson this afternoon who is actually 4-0 in his starts with a 3.68 ERA. But, let's not forget there are other factors here. First off, Cleveland counters with a starter who has also been killing it. Jeremy Sowers has a 3.54 home ERA that is down to 2.14 over his last three starts. And then we have the bullpen situation. This is what got us the victory yesterday. As a reminder, KC's has a 5.67 road ERA and 6-14 record. The Royals are now averaging 3.8 runs per game on the road so don't expect much production vs. Sowers. Celveland pounds in 5.6 per game at home and 5.8 per game vs. right handed starters. The Royals are 4-35 on the road over the past two seasons vs. teams scoring 5.2+ runs per game. This season they are 3-26 on the road vs. good power teams that average 1.25+ home runs per game (Indians average 1.26). Indians here.

The rubber match in this series features Eric Milton vs. Brett Myers as Philly goes for their fifth win in six meetings between these two teams this year. Milton has a 4.70 road ERA to Myers' 3.29 home ERA. I like Myers in this situation. He is well rested having pitched last on August 7th. He's 15-2 when coming off 5 or 6 days of rest and 16-4 vs. high-scoring teams like 'Nati (4.8+ runs per game) the past two seasons. He's also 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA vs. the Reds while Milton owns a 7.15 ERA vs. Philadelphia. Milton is a southpaw which bodes well for us here too as the Phillies score 5.5 runs per game vs. lefties and the Reds are allowing 6.9 runs per game over their past seven.

After losing five straight games to Tampa Bay and Kansas City, the Red Sox are back as the go for the sweep of Baltimore. They have put up 17 runs the past two games and I love their chances at the sweep here. First of all they are playing Baltimore. In eleven games thus far between these two teams this season, Boston has won all but one game. The Red Sox start Jon Lester who is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA at home this season. The Orioles are 21-35 on the road this year losing on average 4.3 to 6.0. Versus lefties like Lester, they are 12-28 scoring just 4.0 runs per game and over their last seven games they are averaging just 3.9 per game. Their bullpen is horrible (5.53 road ERA with 4-7 mark). Boston scores 5.7 per game at home, 5.8 per game vs. right handed starters and 6.0 vs. division opponents. They take care of business at home as they are 37-17 at home this year and 48-14 the past two seasons at home vs. losing teams including 33-4 vs. teams that are outscored by 0.5+ runs per game. They are also 18-3 this season at home following 2 straight wins. Daniel Cabrera is 1-4 with a 9.26 ERA vs. Boston. Love the Red Sox here.

The A's have won 40 of 63 since the beginning of June to open up a 4.5 game lead in the AL West. Two average pitchers face off here with Tim Corcoran at 1-3 on the road with a 5.06 ERA vs. Esteban Loaiza at 2-3 at home with a 5.85 ERA. Corcoran though has struggled of late posting a 6.59 ERA in his last three starts. Oakland has momentum right now (won eight of nine) while Tampa Bay does not (lost five straight). Tampa is a bad road team (only KC and Pittsburgh are worse). The D-Rays score 4.0 per game on the road and are 18-44. Over their last seven games they are scoring just 3.6 per game. Oakland is putting up 5.3 per game over their last seven. They have the better bullpen, too which in a matchup of roughly even pitchers, plays a big role. Home favorites of -150 or more batting .265 or worse on the season, after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 132-42 (76%) over the past decade. Meanwhile, underdogs of +125 to +175 batting .260 or worse after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games are just 47-123 (28%) over that same time period. Tampa is 5-25 this season on the road vs. good bullpens with a WHIP of 1.350 or better. Athletics here.