Sports Pick Mlb - August 12, 2007
Three picks today...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: San Diego at Cincinnati (1:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Diego -145 (risk 3 to win 2.1)
Jake Peavy went through a dead-arm period as most pitchers do. Even with that, he has not allowed more than four runs in a start all season. He's back on track as he's allowed no more than one run in each of his last three starts (20 innings, 10 hits, 1 run and 29 strikeouts for an unreal 0.45 ERA). On the year, the Pads are 6-0 on the road with him starting. He has a 0.89 ERA in his nine road starts. Opposing Peavy is Bronson Arroyo who is 5-12 on the year. The Reds, without Harang on the mound, are as bad as it gets. They are 34-60 without him on the hill. Backing up the two starters is a San Diego bullpen with a 3.05 ERA vs. Cincy's 5.04 ERA pen. Worried about San Diego's offense? Don't be. Arroyo is 3-10 the past two seasons facing teams batting .255 or worse.
Game: Washington at Arizona (4:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Arizona -147 (risk 3 to win 2)
Who's the hottest team in baseball? The Yankees have gotten a lot of press of late. But, sliding under the radar are the D-Back who are on a 17-3 run! Washington's offense has gone cold of late scoring just 7 runs in their last four games. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 57 games this season and average just 3.9 per game on the year (3.6 vs. righties and 3.3 over their last seven). Arizona is 16-5 this season at home vs. NL opponents batting .255 or worse. They are 35-16 this season as a favorite of -100 to -150. Fade the hapless Washington offense here.
Game: Tampa Bay at Texas (8:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Texas -140 (risk 3 to win 2.1)
Yes, Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford has a hot bat (12 game hitting streak batting .595 over his last eight games). But, he's facing a solid pitcher in Kason Gabbard. Gabbard is 5-0 at home with a 2.48 ERA. Jason Hamel goes for the D-Rays. He's just 1-1 on the year in 14 games? Why so few decidisions? He's only started four games, averaging just 4.1 innings per start. No only doesn't he last long, his ERA is over 6. The D-Ray bullpen, which we will likely see early, is as bad as it gets (6.47 ERA, 8.29 on the road). Contrast that with Texas' which has a 3.56 ERA and 77% save percentage (3.48 at home). Tampa Bay is 19-38 on the road and 14-21 vs. lefities like Gabbard. How does Tampa Bay pull off the rare road victory? They get down early of course. Then they get lucky late against a bad bullpen and squeak out a win. But, Tampa Bay really struggles against teams that don't give away early leads. The past two seasons they are 12-42 on the road vs. good bullpens that convert 75% of save opportunities. The truth is, this team is terrible on the road. They are 39-100 the past two seasons on the road including 15-47 as a dog of +125 to +175. This is a bargain price.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2007
The Red Sox continue to struggle against LHP, especially on the road. The loss last night moves the Red Sox to 4-13 in their last 17 road outings against LHP. As good as Boston's record looks in t...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2007
Minnesota is now 3-8 in their last eleven road games. And they have very little offense right now having scored 3 or fewer runs in eleven of their last 14 games overall. They face Kelvim Escobar who h...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2007
Not sure how a team that is 1-9 in their last 10 games, and has been shutout three straight, and four of five ends up a favorite, but we will bite. The Dodgers offense has gone as stone cold, as ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2007
The Rockies have played very good baseball of late and at home have become a very lethal team. The Rockies are now 20-5 at home in their last 25 games and 15 of those 20 wins have come to top teams. J...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-07-2007
The Indians have been slumping for a long time. The jury is out if this team is as good as it was at the start of the season. Are they good or are they the 29-30 team they have been the last 59 games?...
