MLB Baseball
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August 12, 2006 |
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darrell,
Split the games yesterday for a slight loss in MLB. The two NFL picks hit pushing our record up to 3-1 on the season.
Four MLB picks tonight...
Check out my 12-month performance here.
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Game: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 stars on Cleveland -260 (risk 300 to win 115)
Huge line in game one of this double-header but for a reason. KC is off a surprise sweep of the Red Sox winning as dogs of +145, +180 and +210. But that was at home. KC is not awful at home. They went on the road last night to Cleveland and lost again. They played admirably but in the end, this team struggles to put up the W's (now 15-41 on the road). They score 3.87 per game and allow 6 runs per game away from home. Cleveland scores 5.6 per game at home and the starting pitching matchup favors Cleveland huge. CC Sabathia has a 3.43 ERA (2.05 over his last three starts) while Odalis Perez has a 9.83 road ERA (8.78 over his last three). Perez goes an average of 4.7 innings per start so look for KC's awful bullpen to get an early appearance. This bullpen has a 6-12 road record with a 5.62 ERA. KC's recent success is actually a reason to fade them. They are 2-28 on the road following a three game span in which they won two games. CC and the Tribe here.
Game: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Atlanta +119 (risk 200 to win 238)
Ben Sheets probably just wishes this season would end. He's 2-4 on the season with a 4.71 ERA, had major shoulder problems that have kept him out three months, and now he's dealing with chest soreness. He had to leave Saturday's game after just one inning of work. On the road he's 0-2 this season with a 7.50 ERA. And, over the past two seasons, Milwaukke is just 5-17 with Sheets on the mound vs. high scoring teams (4.8+ runs per game). He's Kevin Barry who will be making his firs MLB start in this one. Good thing for Barry that he's facing the Brewers who are just 20-37 on the road and scoring 3.7 runs per game over their last seven games. Atlanta should be able to give him decent run support vs. the ailing Sheets as they put up 5.4 runs per game vs. right handers this season. Milwaukee's bullpen is weak (5-13 on the season on the road) so they'll be little help if/when Sheets gets into trouble. Milwaukee simply doesn't deserve to be a road favorite. They are 10-19 in that role over the past three seasons. THey are also 16-31 this season on the road vs. right handed starters. Home dog here.
Game: Chicago Cubs at Colorado (8:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Colorado -127 (risk 200 to win 157)
Got the W on Colorado last night and I continue to believe they have confidence building coming off their big emotional win in LA four nights ago. They built on that win with a 10-2 drubbing of the Cubs last night at Coors field. Tonight they face Angel Guzman who has a 7.00 ERA in his starts this season. Colorado tends to bunch their good performances. They are 11-5 this season after a 9+ run performance. Road teams starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.750 or worse that also strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game are 17-66 (20%) over the last 5 seasons. The Cubs score 4.1 per game on the road and 3.9 per game in night games. Rockies here.
Game: Tampa Bay at Oakland (9:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 stars on Oakland -159 (risk 300 to win 189)
Sure Tampa's Casey Fossum has done very well over his last couple of starts allowing 0 earned runs in 13 innings. But, those two games were at home and we know how the D-Rays perform away from home. Besides, I am not sold on Fossum. The game prior to those two beauties he pitched at home to the Angels and gave up 7 runs before being yanked early in the 2nd inning. Joe Blanton goes for Oakland and he's been solid at home all season and also hot of late. He's 6-4 at home with a 3.90 ERA. Over his last three starts (two of which we on the road no less), he posted a 2.75 ERA allowing just 6 earned runs in 19.7 innings. Oakland has won 8 of the last 10 games played between these two teams here in Oakland. The A's have won 10 of 12 games while Tampa Bay has dropped four straight including the last three games by a combined score of 3-12. And get this: road underdogs of +150 or more with a team batting average of .255 or worse after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 9-53 (14%) over the last 5 seasons. Tampa Bay is 18-43 on the road for a reason. Oakland here.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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