Free Baseball Pick - August 11, 2008

We finished 4-1 yesterday to grab six units. Today we aim to keep the winning going with five more MLB picks.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Washington at Milwaukee (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Milwaukee -231 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.3)

If the Nats were going to steal one in this series they missed their opportunity. They took a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth, and ended up on the losing end, dropping their third straight here. It drops their record to 1-11 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers have now won five straight, yielding just eight runs in the process or 1.6 a game. Garrett Mock has only two big-league starts and neither was pretty as he exited early, as the opponents rang up 19 runs in the two games. This is a monumental task for the Nats - a team that isn't scoring right now and has already been shutout 10 times on the road this season. We will take the Brewers for the four-game sweep.

There is great value on The Brew Crew on the runline here. The Nats’ pen ranks 20th in the major leagues and send out a pitcher today that has logged just two major-league starts. Mock is primarily a bullpen pitcher which means the underbelly of that Nats’ pen is gonna get a lot of exposure here. Mock has not worked more than 1.1 innings since June in a game and was rocked in his two starts early on. The Brewers’ bats have produced 5+ runs in each of the last five and this one should be another big performance for a win on the runline as the Brewers get the four-game sweep.

The time is now for the New York Yankees. Getting swept in LA might be the wake-up call this team needed. Now they are playing against the Twins who are ahead of them in the wildcard standings so this game takes on even more meaning. Sydney Ponson has pitched the Yankees to five wins in his seven starts in pinstripes, and in three of those wins he allowed one run or less. Glen Perkins may be hitting the wall many young pitchers reach at this stage of the season as his last three outings are his worst three of the season. Perkins never worked more than 117 innings in the minors or majors, and his inning count is up to 102. The Twins have had trouble with the Yankees recently, as they are just 5-12 in their last 17 against the Bombers, so we will ride the Yankees in this one.

It is hard to believe that the White Sox are listed as a home dog in this game after winning two of the first three here, and as one of the hottest home teams in baseball. The Pale Hose have gone on a 27-9 run in their last 36 at home and have been playing superb. This line is mostly due to the reputation of Josh Beckett from a year ago, but his performance this season has not been the same as the Red Sox are just 11-10 in his 21 starts to date. John Danks has out-pitched him by nearly a run a game, and the White Sox are dogs at home? The White Sox have also been 5-2 in the role of a home dog on the season. The Red Sox have had road woes all season and when they have been on the road facing a .500+ team, their woes have gotten even worse as they have logged an unforgivable 7-21 mark. There is lots of value on the White Sox here, and they get the call.

The Phillies lead the NL East and are playing good baseball right now as they are 10-4 over their last 14 games. The Phillies are a big-hitting team, but the name of the game of late has been the pitching. The Phillies’ staff has allowed just 10 runs over their last five games or just two per game. Meanwhile the Dodgers’ offense has produced just 68 runs in their last 18 games or 3.8 a game. Against a hard-hitting Philly team they will need to muster more than that. Kyle Kendrick is pitching to a 1.35 ERA over his last three starts, but has been the best road pitcher in baseball where the Phillies have won his last nine road starts and 10 of 11 on the season. We like the Phil's to grab the opener in LA.

Results: 2-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2008
We were on the Red Sox last night as they notched the win. We're flipping over to Chicago for game three in this four game series. Yesterday's loss was costly for Chicago as they lost Jose Con...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2008
It is hard to pass this one up. As good as Roy Halladay has been of late, Paul Byrd has been even better. Byrd is pitching to a 0.90 ERA over his last three starts and getting this kind of dog value w...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2008
Like any good team the Cubs are prone to having a "hiccup" during the course of a 162-game season and they have experienced theirs. The Cubs went 15-18 for a stretch, but the before and afte...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-07-2008
The Dodgers are just 3-6 in Clayton Kershaw’s last nine starts, in spite of the fact he gave up no earned runs in three of them. Two still resulted in losses. That is because the underbelly...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-06-2008
We are not usually tuned in to heavy chalk, but sometimes there is value even in lines that seem to be laden with chalk. Scott Kazmir has been brilliant on the season and for him, and the Rays this ye...