Baseball Picks - August 11, 2007

Nailed another 4-unit play yesterday and today we fire back with three more picks including another two, hot 4-unit selections.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at Baltimore (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +176 (risk 3 to win 5.3)

The Red Sox continue to struggle against LHP, especially on the road. The loss last night moves the Red Sox to 4-13 in their last 17 road outings against LHP. As good as Boston's record looks in the standings, a lot of that work was done early as they got off to a 36-15 start, but have been virtually a .500 team in their last 64 games going 33-31. That includes a 15-18 mark on the road. The Red Sox will get a look at Garrett Olson for the first time, and have been known to struggle when seeing a pitcher for the first time. The Red Sox won Beckett's first nine starts, but have now lost four of his last seven. Beckett continues to pitch well, but his ERA since then has been a full run higher. Beckett is approaching an area he isn't accustomed to. He has now pitched more innings the last two years than he ever has in back-to-back seasons and it may be catching up to him. Those first nine starts showed Beckett with 14 less hits than innings pitched, but since has allowed more hits than innings pitched. The O's have eight hitters over .300 for the past week, so they should be a threat here.

The Blue Jays have been getting better pitching than any team in baseball right now, and it has lead them to a 12-6 mark over their last 18 games. The 18 game stretch has seen four shutouts, and four one-run performances by Jays pitching. Overall, teams have been scoring less than three runs a game against the Jays’ staff. Dustin McGowan has been at the top of those performances, as he stands 3-0 1.98 in his last four starts. The Royals have been just 3-7 over their last 10, and have now been held to one run in back-to-back games and also five hits in both. The Jays’ offense has been hot as well, as they feature eight players batting .300+ over the last week. Jays continue their success tonight.

The Angels have now won 8 of 9 at home, and have righted the ship that slumped a bit a few weeks ago. The offense slumped a bit right after the break, but has hit .315 in the last 15 games. The tide has turned for the Twins as they have now gone into a deep offensive slump. The Twins have scored one run or less in five of their last six games and have scored fewer runs since the All-Star break than any team in MLB. That spells trouble against one of the league’s best. The Angels are 17-6 with John Lackey on the mound while Carlos Silva is 0-3 8.62 in his last three starts, and has now lost eight of his last nine on the road. The Angels go up 2-0 in this series.

Results: 1-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our MLB ATS records here.
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• Take a look at our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• View our MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 MLB pick season results.
• Check out baseball betting here.
• Check out our updated 2007 season MLB handicapping preview.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2007
Minnesota is now 3-8 in their last eleven road games. And they have very little offense right now having scored 3 or fewer runs in eleven of their last 14 games overall. They face Kelvim Escobar who h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2007
Not sure how a team that is 1-9 in their last 10 games, and has been shutout three straight, and four of five ends up a favorite, but we will bite. The Dodgers offense has gone as stone cold, as ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2007
The Rockies have played very good baseball of late and at home have become a very lethal team. The Rockies are now 20-5 at home in their last 25 games and 15 of those 20 wins have come to top teams. J...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-07-2007
The Indians have been slumping for a long time. The jury is out if this team is as good as it was at the start of the season. Are they good or are they the 29-30 team they have been the last 59 games?...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-06-2007
We rode the Padres to a 4-unit win yesterday and we'll do so again today. After a 3-9 stretch, San Diego has won four in a row. Meanwhile, St. Louis has dropped five straight. Their offense h...