Baseball Betting Pick - August 10, 2009

We finished 3-0 last night, adding another +6.9 units to our two-month run. During that time, we are hitting nearly 60% at 139-96 for +108 units!

Today, we go with four premium MLB picks including two 4-unit plays. 

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	65-50 last 115 picks	57%	+$2270
MLB	139-96 last 235 picks	59%	+$10830
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$32880

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Houston at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Houston +1.5 runs -140 (runline) (risk 2 to win 1.4)

The Florida Marlins wasted a big opportunity on their recent six-game road trip as they dropped the first three to lowly Washington, then went to Philly and got the three-game sweep. It still leaves them in striking distance, but at the same time shows the youth of this team. Rick Vandenhurk has recovered from injuries, but still hasn't found the groove as he has made four starts for the Marlins and they have lost three of them, including the last three. The Astros have made good use of Brian Moehlers last 16 starts as they have claimed victory in 10 of them. They have now won five of his last six road starts and are now also 7-3 in his last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Astros have started strong by going 7-2 in their last nine series openers. The Marlins aren't consistent offensively, and have now dropped each of Vandenhurk's last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. I’m going with Houston on the runline in this one.

The Rockies have played better baseball than any other National League team for over the last 58 games, or better than a third of the season. They come into this one with a 41-17 mark in their last 58 games. That would project out to a 115 win season over 162 games, so this team is flying well under the radar. The Cubs have struggled this season, especially on the road, where they enter with just a 25-32 mark and have dropped two of the first three in this series. Jorge DeLaRosa has been brilliant overall, with the Rockies winning eight of his last nine starts, and 10 of his last 12. He has really shined at home where he has posted a 1.88 ERA in his last four starts. The Cubs aren’t getting anything done in the role of an underdog, where they are a woeful 18-42 in their last 60. The Rockies are also surging at home against lefthand pitching, where they have won eight straight. I’m on the Rockies in this one.

Anytime you have a team racking up wins at the rate of 71% of the time over 58 games, you have to look at runline value, especially when they are a perfect 8-0 against lefthanders at home. Putting those eight games to the runline test shows them at 7-1. The Rockies have 14 wins since the All-Star break, and if they were playing against a -1.5 runline in those 14 games, they would come in an astounding 13-1! It’s hard not to take the value here at 1.5-1 odds, so I will ride the Rockies on the runline in this one.

Looking at this Mets’ offense, there’s nothing scary about it. They were a team that went through a stretch of 30 games where they were shutout eight times. What has gone unnoticed is the fact that the Mets have been finding quite a bit of offense lately, and have not been shutout since July 21 in Washington. Their last 17 games shows a team scoring at an above-average clip for any team as the Mets have produced 5.1 runs a game. The Diamondbacks are the lowest-scoring team against lefthand pitching at 3.8 runs per game, but do far better against righthanders where the offense is a full run better at 4.8 per game. It is one of the reasons why they have played 15-7-2 to the OVER in their last 24 against righthand pitching. The Mets’ pitching has been very inconsistent, and after allowing two runs or less, they have played OVER in their next game to a record of 30-14-3. I like this one to go OVER the total.

Results: 3-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our 2009 MLB baseball prior pick season results here.
• Here we show our mlb picks blog.
• View our updated baseball gambling philosophy.
• Don't forget to read our MLB record here.
• Updated today: MLB Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Check out our updated mlb sportsbook.
• Check out our updated MLB Baseball lines.
• Here we show our mlb pick.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB ATS records.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2009
Don't look now but the Nationals are winning! They have posted seven straight wins and go for a sweep over the Diamondbacks this afternoon. I think they get it. Are the Nationals as good as they a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2009
The San Francisco Giants are in playoff contention for a few reasons. One of them is the fact that they have been great at home, entering here with a 36-17 mark on the season. They have also begun to ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-07-2009
The Cards are certainly glad to see Chris Carpenter back to form after being sidelined by injuries. Carpenter has pitched to a 2.10 ERA on the season, and 11 of his 17 starts have resulted in seven ru...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-05-2009
The Minnesota Twins were expecting a return to form of the Francisco Liriano that dominated AL hitters before surgery. It just hasn't materialized and at this point there are more questions than a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2009
The Toronto Blue Jays have really been struggling, and it is a struggle that even the arm of Roy Halladay can't solve. The Jays once sat atop the American League East, and have fallen flat. The Ja...