Baseball Pick - August 09, 2009

We added another four wins and +2.7 units to our two-month run. During thsat time, we are hitting at a near 60% clip at 136-96 for a whopping +101.5 units.

Three premium MLB picks make up our bases card today.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	63-49 last 112 picks	56%	+$2030
MLB	136-96 last 232 picks	59%	+$10150
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$31960

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Arizona at Washington (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Washington +100 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)

Don't look now but the Nationals are winning! They have posted seven straight wins and go for a sweep over the Diamondbacks this afternoon. I think they get it. Are the Nationals as good as they are playing right now? No. But they weren't as bad as their record indicated before this run, either. Their offense has been decent all season (4.6 runs per game). The problem for them has been pitching. J.D. Martin doesn't instill a whole lot of confidence, but I think he'll do well enough vs. Yusmeiro Petit who hasn't done any better this season. And with the Nats averaging 6.9 runs per game over their win streak, I like them here at home. Arizona is a losing road team in the midst of a long road trip. They have gone 1-7 this season after 7+ straight road games. When favoried at -100 to -150, the D-Backs are just 19-33 this season. Petit is 1-8 as a favorite over the past two seasons. I like the home team here.

The Nationals are pounding the ball right now (6.9 runs per game), and it's propelled them to a seven-game win streak. The likelihood of them losing by 2+ runs here at home is low. Consider that the Diamondbacks on the road this season average just 4.3 runs per game. In games following a 7+ straight-game road trip, Arizona is 0-8 vs. the run line. The Nats are 53-33 vs. the run line at home when facing a losing team since last season. I like Washington to at least keep this close.

It hasn't happened in 24 years. But today could be the day the Yankees get a four-game home sweep over the Red Sox. Yesterday's 5-0 win gave New York a 5.5 game lead over their rival in the AL East. Boston had the upper hand going into this series having won all eight prior games this season. But New York has gone a long way towards easing that pain with their play in this series. The Red Sox, despite a 62-47 overall record, just aren't good on the road this season where they are 27-30. New York is 38-17 at home where they average 5.6 runs per game (vs. 4.6 per game for Boston on the road). Both Lester and Pettitte own winning records on the season and both have been hot of late. Lester has posted a 3.32 ERA his last three starts while Pettitte has done better at 2.79. The pitching matchup is roughly a wash here so it's likely to come down to offense and right now New York's is much hotter. Boston is just 18-30 vs. the run line this season after back-to-back road games. They have also lost eight straight vs. the run line when facing a winning team. I like the value here on the Yankees -1.5 runs.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our 2009 MLB baseball picks season results.
• Don't forget to visit our baseball picks blog.
• View MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out baseball prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Check out baseball betting here.
• Take a look at our Baseball lines and odds here.
• View free mlb baseball picks here.
• Read our baseball against-the-spread records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-08-2009
The San Francisco Giants are in playoff contention for a few reasons. One of them is the fact that they have been great at home, entering here with a 36-17 mark on the season. They have also begun to ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-07-2009
The Cards are certainly glad to see Chris Carpenter back to form after being sidelined by injuries. Carpenter has pitched to a 2.10 ERA on the season, and 11 of his 17 starts have resulted in seven ru...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-05-2009
The Minnesota Twins were expecting a return to form of the Francisco Liriano that dominated AL hitters before surgery. It just hasn't materialized and at this point there are more questions than a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2009
The Toronto Blue Jays have really been struggling, and it is a struggle that even the arm of Roy Halladay can't solve. The Jays once sat atop the American League East, and have fallen flat. The Ja...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2009
Washington is 32-71 overall and 12-38 on the road. And we get to fade them at even money? I'll take that all day long. It's not as if we are backing an equally bad team here. The Pirates are a...