Free Mlb Picks - August 09, 2008

We finished 1-2 yesterday. Today we come back with five MLB premium selections.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +198 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 4)

It is hard to pass this one up. As good as Roy Halladay has been of late, Paul Byrd has been even better. Byrd is pitching to a 0.90 ERA over his last three starts and getting this kind of dog value with a hot pitcher makes sense to us. Roy Halladay has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the past several years, but looking close at home games where the Jays have been prohibitive favorites like today, the results have not been there. The Jays are just 2-3 this season when Halladay starts a game at home with a moneyline of -170 or higher and have been outscored 21-19. There is value at this price on the Tribe especially with a neutralizing hot pitcher, so we will back the Indians here.

The Yankees will send minor-league journeyman Dan Giese to the mound against the Angels. Giese gave the Yankees six innings of shutout baseball in his first start. In Giese’s last 14.2 innings out of the pen he has allowed just two runs and has an ERA of just 2.51. John Lackey came off the injured list and was brilliant in his first seven starts resulting in a 1.44 ERA. He has slipped back recently pitching to a 6.16 ERA over his last six starts. The Yankees have a long history of success against Lackey where he is just 4-7 over his career with nearly a five ERA. Good value on the Yankees here, and we will take them as a sizeable valued dog.

Dice-K has been the best pitcher in Boston this season, and the Red Sox are now 14-4 in his 18 starts. The Red Sox have had some road woes this season, but not when Dice-K is on the mound as they have been 6-2 in his eight road starts. Jose Contreras has lapsed back into the ill form he couldn't find his way out of last year. Contreras 6-3, 2.75 at the beginning of June and has been 1-3 with an ERA of 8.60 since covering seven starts. We saw him go into the same funk last year and he couldn't get out of it. The answer is not likely to be found against a good-hitting Red Sox team. The Red Sox get the call on the road.

The Mets send a sort of sacrificial lamb to the mound when they wheel out Brian Stokes. Stokes was unimpressive last year for Tampa Bay where he pitched to a 7.07 ERA. He has allowed 121 hits in just 86 big-league innings as well as walking 34 hitters. That is just shy of two baserunners an inning. His AAA numbers this season aren't very impressive either with a 4.41 ERA. The Marlins will counter with Scott Olsen who has pitched to an ERA of just 3.87 on the season, allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. With a Mets’ bullpen that has been in shambles recently and expected to be needed early here, you have to like the value on the Marlins.

Dan Haren has given the D-Backs a big lift since being dealt from the A's. Haren has pitched as well as anyone over his last 12 starts. His numbers show an ERA of 1.93 over this stretch with his teams combining to go 10-2 in the 12 games. Atlanta has been miserable on the road this season winning about one of every three they play. Jair Jurgens has pitched well for the Braves, but most of the wins have come at home where he is 8-3, while the Braves have logged a losing mark when he has started on the road. The D-Backs brought Haren here to win, and that is what he has done, so we like them on the runline in this one. On a final note, Dan Haren was on The Jungle with Jim Rome yesterday and those that have appeared on Rome's radio show have met with great success. Consider it the reverse of the SI jinx!

Results: 2-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

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