Mlb Picks - August 08, 2009

We finished 2-2 around the bases yesterday, for a slight loss as the Mariners held on for the win in the bottom of the 11th, but couldn't get it done on the run line. Today, we are plating picks in four games including four 4-unit plays.

Over the last two months, our MLB picks are on an unbelievable run as we are hitting nearly 60% at 132-93 for +99 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	63-48 last 111 picks	57%	+$2430
MLB	132-93 last 225 picks	59%	+$9880
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$32090

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cincinnati at San Francisco (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Francisco -150 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.7)

The San Francisco Giants are in playoff contention for a few reasons. One of them is the fact that they have been great at home, entering here with a 36-17 mark on the season. They have also begun to get long awaited dividends from Barry Zito, who suddenly has regained the form he had in Oakland. Zito carries a 1.93 ERA into this one over his last three starts, and has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts. That leaves the Reds with some problems, as they are second from the bottom in run production in all of baseball against lefthand starters at just 3.8 runs per game. That puts a lot of pressure on Bronson Arroyo, who has had a very sub-par season, entering here with an ERA of over five runs a game. I like the Giants to win this one.

You have to love what the Giants have done at home this season, winning at a rate of better than two of every three games played here. Opportunity knocks for a runline play here, as Barry Zito has put his act together, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six, and posting a sub two ERA over his last three. Coupling that with the Reds season-long struggles against lefthand pitchers where they rank 29th out of 30 teams in runs scored per game, and a struggling Bronsosn Arroyo with a 5+ ERA spells a lot of value on the runline here at better than 1.5-1 odds. I'll also grab the Giants on the runline.

The Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander on the hill may be justifiable at any price, especially with what is offered here. Minnesota is a failing road team that is a run less productive per game when travelling compared to their own park. The Tigers have taken the win in 14 of Verlander's last 20 starts, but of more importance, they are 9-1 on the season in his 10 home starts. Verlander has allowed just 13 runs at home the entire season!! He will face newly acquired Twins pitcher Carl Pavano, who has never reached the lofty status he held several years ago with the Marlins as he appears to have been a one-year wonder and cashed in. His numbers this season show an inflated ERA of 5.37, and the Tigers should have their way with him here. I'll go with Detroit to win this one.

The deck is stacked for the Tigers in this one. Anytime you can wheel out a pitcher that has made 10 home starts and allowed just 13 runs, you have to take a look at the runline. That may be extra true when facing a pitcher far removed from a single glory year, that has been much less than average since, and that includes an inflated  5.37 ERA this season. Then add in a Twins team that loses 20% of its offense when compared to what they do at home, and the runline becomes in-play. I'll go with the Tigers on the runline here.

Two of the worst offenses in the AL square off, and each will be doing so with one of their top pitchers on the mound. Zack Grienke has made a splash this season, pitching to a 2.37 ERA. He has been extremely impressive at home, allowing just 17 runs the entire season, covering 12 starts. So how do the Royals lose his last six starts? It is because they have scored a paltry total of just 10 runs in the six games, or 1.66 a game. Then add in Brett Anderson of the A's who is really coming into his own. Anderson has pitched to a 1.93 ERA in his last seven starts, and pitching looks to be the order of the day in KC tonight. These teams have gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 played here, and I look for that trend to continue tonight. The UNDER gets the call.

What has happened to the Mets this season defies reason. The Mets opened a new stadium with big expectations, and the added strength in the bullpen figured to solve last year's late-game collapses. What they didn't count on was the myriad of injuries to the core of their team, and also one of those pen pieces JJ Putz. It has left them stranded and out of the playoff race with few answers. Then suddenly K-Rod, who was invincible a year ago, is letting games slip away as well. The Mets have even bigger problems as San Diego has become a chamber of horrors for them. The Mets haven't sniffed a win here since 2007, and going back even further, the Padres are 10-2 here vs. the Mets in the last 12 meetings. The Padres are an up and down team, but are up right now as they have won nine of their last 12, while the Mets continue their downward spiral. I'm going with the Padres here.

I certainly addressed the issues the Mets are having, and it is across the board. Their problems are deep, from key injuries, depleted starters, road woes, an ace closer that is suddenly struggling, and the fact they haven't won in San Diego in two years and have collected just two wins here in their last 12 games. Their road woes continue as well standing at just 4-11 in their last 15. The Padres are on a roll at 9-3 in their last 12, and they have also put together an 8-2 run against pitchers with a WHIP greater than 1.30. I'll ride with them on the runline.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-07-2009
The Cards are certainly glad to see Chris Carpenter back to form after being sidelined by injuries. Carpenter has pitched to a 2.10 ERA on the season, and 11 of his 17 starts have resulted in seven ru...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-05-2009
The Minnesota Twins were expecting a return to form of the Francisco Liriano that dominated AL hitters before surgery. It just hasn't materialized and at this point there are more questions than a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2009
The Toronto Blue Jays have really been struggling, and it is a struggle that even the arm of Roy Halladay can't solve. The Jays once sat atop the American League East, and have fallen flat. The Ja...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2009
Washington is 32-71 overall and 12-38 on the road. And we get to fade them at even money? I'll take that all day long. It's not as if we are backing an equally bad team here. The Pirates are a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2009
The Mets have struggled with injury issues all season long, and have finally begun to get hot as they have now won five of their last six games. The D-Backs are just 5-10 in their last 15 on the road....