Free Baseball Pick - August 07, 2008
We had a winning day yesterday as we nailed our 5-unit pick on Tampa Bay and finished 3-1 overall. Today we go with three picks.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis (2:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St Louis -129 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
The Dodgers are just 3-6 in Clayton Kershaw’s last nine starts, in spite of the fact he gave up no earned runs in three of them. Two still resulted in losses. That is because the underbelly of the Dodgers’ pen is just not good and Kershaw has yet to make it into the 7th inning in any start, failing to get past five innings in more than half of his 11 starts. Even when he pitches well the Dodgers have a tough time winning. Kyle Lohse has been brilliant for the Cards where he is 13-3 with a 3.73 ERA, and the Cards have now won 12 of his last 15 starts and seven of his last eight at home. This matchup is much more favorable for the Cards than the odds are allowing for, so we will take the value and grab the Cards as a home favorite of much less than what they should be.
Game: New York Yankees at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -148 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2)
Mike Mussina has won 264 games in his career, but has yet to log a 20-win season. Could this be the year? He is pitching superb and this certainly looks like it could be his year. After starting 1-3, the Yankees have gone 13-6 in his last 19 starts, with Mussina allowing three runs or less in 16 of the 19, so he has been consistently good. Scott Feldman has only recorded eight decisions in 17 starts, meaning he has left most of the game outcomes subject to the Rangers’ pen, which isn't good news as their pen has been bad this season. When Feldman doesn't get a decision, the Rangers’ pen is 2-7, for a combined 6-11 mark over his 17 starts. The Rangers are primarily a .500 team, but with Feldman have been significantly less, winning at a 35% rate in his starts. Mussina has it going and we will back the Yanks on the road here.
Game: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +123 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.7)
I guess the question here is if a good pitcher is able to overcome the performance of a bad team? Well, the first place we looked was to see how Hernandez fared against winning teams, and his ERA is almost a full run higher than his overall ERA. It stands at 3.95 against teams over .500, and the Mariners are just a .500 team in his home starts, so does that merit them a solid favorite here? We don't believe so, especially since the Rays are 15-7 in Sonnanstine's 22 starts. The Rays had their bad stretch losing seven straight, and have more than recovered and to win their last three. We like the value with them in this one and riding them here as dog.
Results: 1-2
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-06-2008
We are not usually tuned in to heavy chalk, but sometimes there is value even in lines that seem to be laden with chalk. Scott Kazmir has been brilliant on the season and for him, and the Rays this ye...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-05-2008
Edinson Volquez has had a breakout season for the Reds and has not allowed more than three runs in a game but three times on the season covering 23 starts. He is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, and in Cy Young ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2008
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in h...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-03-2008
Does Maddux deserve this kind of respect? No! The guy is 4-8 on the season with a pedestrian 4.29 ERA. Over his last three starts he has posted a 7.54 ERA. His team averages 3.5 runs per game at home ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-02-2008
Despite some good numbers, Sabathia's teams have only been 11-11 on the season when he takes the mound. This is also a Brewers’ team that has dropped five of their last six games, with oppon...
