Mlb Pick - August 06, 2008

We finished 1-2 yesterday. Four MLB plays today with a 5-unit pick on a very early game.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (12:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Tampa Bay -220 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 2.3)

We are not usually tuned in to heavy chalk, but sometimes there is value even in lines that seem to be laden with chalk. Scott Kazmir has been brilliant on the season and for him, and the Rays this year, there is certainly no place like home. The Rays have put together a 44-17 mark at home, which suggests a better than two-to-one mark with anyone pitching. Plug in Kazmir and the Rays 8-1 home mark in his starts backed by a 1.66 ERA and you have value here. Now turn to the Tribe and Jeremy Sowers and their 1-6 mark in his seven road starts, and two-to-one odds on this game just doesn’t cut it, so we will lay the chalk and take the value it offers here.

The Cubs have to be considered at any price under -200 at home. The Cubbies have dominated all comers to the tune of a 42-16 mark or winning over 72% of the time. The Astros Brandon Backe has had two distinctly different seasons. The ‘Stros are 6-4 when Backe starts at home, but a pitiful 3-10 when he starts on the road. Not exactly the type of pitcher that stops the Cubs at home. The Cubs slid for awhile going 12-14 over a 26-game stretch, but are back to winning again taking eight of their last 10. Cubs get the call in this one.

The O's hung in there for awhile, but a 4-14 streak put an end to any thought they'd be around come October. But as young teams go, the mental aspect of the game is fragile. This team now has a winning mentality again, winners of six of their last nine backed by a 3-0 shutout of the Angels last night. After five straight wins on the road over the Red Sox and Yankees, the Angels seem to have lost their emotional edge for a bit, dropping three out of four. Ervin Santana led the Angels to six wins in his first seven starts, while posting a 2.02 ERA in the process. Santana and the Angels have struggled since as they have been a sub-.500 team over his last 15 starts while his ERA has almost doubled in the process. Sometimes timing puts value in the moneyline, so we like the O's chances here to steal another from the Angels.

Ok, who would of believed that over two-thirds of the way through the season without Liriano and his injuries and Santana gone to the Mets that the Twins would have a better record than the Yankees? Furthermore, what would this line be if Mussina (3.44 ERA) and the Yankees were playing instead of the Twins with Blackburn (3.56 ERA)? You can bet much higher and that is why there is value here. The Twins have won 10 of Blackburn’s last 15 starts while the Mariners are just 7-15 over Washburn's 22 starts on the season. We see great value in this one and will ride the Twins here.

Results: 3-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: baseball blog.
• Updated today: MLB Baseball spreads.
• Take a look at our mlb baseball ATS recprds here.
• View our updated 2008 MLB prior pick season results.
• Check out our updated 2008 season baseball gambling preivew.
• View our updated betting mlb baseball.
• Check out our updated free mlb baseball predictions.
• Don't forget to visit our baseball sportsbook reviews.
• Here we show our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Check out our updated MLB prior picks.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-05-2008
Edinson Volquez has had a breakout season for the Reds and has not allowed more than three runs in a game but three times on the season covering 23 starts. He is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, and in Cy Young ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2008
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-03-2008
Does Maddux deserve this kind of respect? No! The guy is 4-8 on the season with a pedestrian 4.29 ERA. Over his last three starts he has posted a 7.54 ERA. His team averages 3.5 runs per game at home ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-02-2008
Despite some good numbers, Sabathia's teams have only been 11-11 on the season when he takes the mound. This is also a Brewers’ team that has dropped five of their last six games, with oppon...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2008
The Brewers let a big opportunity pass them by as they were swept at home by the Cubs in four straight games. We have to believe they head on the road with a damaged psyche. The Brewers didn't jus...