Baseball Free Picks - August 05, 2009

We went 4-2 on the MLB diamond yesterday for 67% and +6.7 units.  This brings our four day total to 19-6 for 76% and +41.2 units.  That is over $4,100 for our $100 bettors in just four days!  Over the past eight weeks we are 128-89 for +103.1 units.  Today we have  four picks including a 5 unit selection.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	59-48 last 107 picks	55%	+$1280
MLB	128-89 last 217 picks	59%	+$10310
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$31370

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)

The Minnesota Twins were expecting a return to form of the Francisco Liriano that dominated AL hitters before surgery. It just hasn't materialized and at this point there are more questions than answers, if he will ever again be that pitcher. The 12-3 Liriano has been replaced by a 4-10 Liriano with a 5.56 ERA. The command is gone as 32 walks in 121 innings have become 51 walks in 113 innings. A HR every 14 innings has become one every six. Bottom line is he is not featuring big league stuff right now. That becomes an even bigger problem against the Tribe who lead the major leagues with six runs a game against lefthand pitchers. The Twins also must face the fact they score a full run a game less on the road than they do at home. The Twins problems are further compounded by being 6-20 in their last 26 on the road vs a lefthander. The Tribe has been lethal vs lefthand pitching and it has led them to five straight wins. I'm going with Cleveland here.

There is a lot of negative forces at work here for the Twins. They are a poor road team and against lefthanders that has translated to 6-20 in their last 26. They score a full run per game less on the road than they do at home and the Indians are the top offensive team in baseball at six runs a game against lefthanders on the season. That has led to five straight wins against southpaws and they have outscored the opponents by a 44-16 count in those games. I'm going with Cleveland on the runline as well.

Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has won seven straight starts allowing just two runs per game on average in those games. Philadelphia has scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games, losing all of those games. The Rockies are 15-9 this season on the road vs. winning teams. Overall, when facing teams at .540 to .620, Colorado is an amazing 14-1 this season! In the underdog roll this year they are 25-19, including 13-9 as a dog of +125 to +175. And, when on the road after back-to-back wins, they are 12-4 this year. I like the Rockies to win this game.

Colorado is 38-20 vs. the run line on the road this season. It doesn't get much better than that. Meanwhile, the Phillies are just 20-33 to the run line at home this year. Two very good pitchers go here but Philadelphia's offense is no where to be found right now. So, getting an extra run and a half in this matchup spells lots of value. Long road trips have treated the Rockies well this season as they are 16-4 to the run line after 6+ straight road games. They are also 14-1 this season vs. the run line when facing a good team (those with a win percentage between .540 to .620 - Philly is .567). I like Colorado a lot at +1.5 runs here.

Results: 2-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our 2009 MLB prior picks season results here.
• Check out mlb picks blog here.
• View our mlb baseball gambling philosophy here.
• Take a look at our baseball prior predictions here.
• Read our Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Check out our updated baseball sports book.
• Take a look at our Baseball lines here.
• Updated today: baseball predictions.
• Updated today: baseball against-the-spread standings.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2009
The Toronto Blue Jays have really been struggling, and it is a struggle that even the arm of Roy Halladay can't solve. The Jays once sat atop the American League East, and have fallen flat. The Ja...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2009
Washington is 32-71 overall and 12-38 on the road. And we get to fade them at even money? I'll take that all day long. It's not as if we are backing an equally bad team here. The Pirates are a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2009
The Mets have struggled with injury issues all season long, and have finally begun to get hot as they have now won five of their last six games. The D-Backs are just 5-10 in their last 15 on the road....

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-30-2009
The Orioles have to feel good after beating Zack Grienke last night, scoring seven runs in the process. The Orioles have been a better-than-average team as long as they are playing at home where they ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2009
When Zack Greinke's name appears in the probable pitchers list, it is hard to ignore what he has done on the season. It also must be noted that he is just one element in many variables that enter ...