Mlb Game Predictions - August 05, 2008

Yesterday we finished 2-1 for +3.1 units. Today we feature three premium selections.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -123 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.4)

Edinson Volquez has had a breakout season for the Reds and has not allowed more than three runs in a game but three times on the season covering 23 starts. He is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, and in Cy Young contention for a team that hasn't been very effective this season, but have been pretty good at home at 31-25. Dave Bush has been the weakest link on the Brewers’ staff this season and the road has really been an issue. The Brewers are just 1-8 in his nine road starts and getting pounded by a total of 55-27. The opponents have scored at least six runs in eight of the nine starts. Since Volquez hasn't given up six in a game all season, we have to like the Reds here.

One thing is for sure and that is you'd never get Chris Carpenter and the Cards at home for basically even money before his Tommy John surgery last April. The fact that Carpenter threw 67 pitches and allowed just one run over four innings, and had no setbacks says this guy is ready to be himself again and soon. The Cards are 27-10 over his last 37 home starts and we'll take the odds makers hedge that he isn't Chris Carpenter yet, and say that he is. St. Louis has been a difficult stop for Los Angeles over the past three years as they have gone just 2-7 here and have been outscored in the process 59-17 or by almost five runs a game. We will back the Cards in the opener at home.

Sometimes you have to look at the odds on a game and make a decision if the value pendulum has swung to the extreme enough to push the value in line of the huge underdog. We have an opportunity here to back such a situation. Brandon Webb has been a top pitcher for several years, but the home record of teams in his starts has been just 34-21 for 61.8% over the last four years, while it would take 71% in this price range to breakeven. This is a classic letdown situation for the D-Backs. They are fat and happy right now - maybe overconfident. They have Webb on the mound (coming off four straight wins), they have their lead over the Dodgers in the division, they are facing a struggling pitcher, and they are coming off a comfortable 13-7 win in game one. How can they not let down here? Pittsburgh has the offense to stay in this one, especially if Arizona bats take the day off. Webb, as good as he has been is actually just 9-28 in post All-Star play vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game. We will give the Pirates a go here, as the odds are longer than their true value by a fairly significant margin.

Results: 1-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated blog mlb picks.
• Take a look at our MLB lines here.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB ATS records.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 MLB picks.
• Check out our updated 2008 baseball season preivew.
• Read our baseball betting approach here.
• View our mlb free picks here.
• View our updated mlb sportsbook reviews.
• Here we show our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview.
• View baseball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-04-2008
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-03-2008
Does Maddux deserve this kind of respect? No! The guy is 4-8 on the season with a pedestrian 4.29 ERA. Over his last three starts he has posted a 7.54 ERA. His team averages 3.5 runs per game at home ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-02-2008
Despite some good numbers, Sabathia's teams have only been 11-11 on the season when he takes the mound. This is also a Brewers’ team that has dropped five of their last six games, with oppon...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2008
The Brewers let a big opportunity pass them by as they were swept at home by the Cubs in four straight games. We have to believe they head on the road with a damaged psyche. The Brewers didn't jus...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2008
The Rockies have been a poor road team for years with '08 being no exception. While they have done respectfully well against the sub .500 teams posting a 10-11 mark, it has been a nightmare for th...