Mlb Picks - August 05, 2007
Hit with the +170 dog yesterday for a winning day. Today we have three picks.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore -148 (risk 3 to win 2)
This is a great match-up for the Os. Erik Bedard has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. That doesn't bode well for a Tampa Bay team that can't hold teams down. The D-Rays are just 13-34 in their last 47 games. The Orioles have won eight straight with Bedard on the mound. In July he is 5-0 with a 2.21 ERA. Tampa Bay's offense is actually worse at home than on the road. Baltimore's offense is nothing to write home about but they'll be facing a team that allows 6.2 runs per game, a starter in Sonnanstine that is 1-6 on the year and a bullpen that boasts a 6.48 ERA. The Orioles, as bad as their offense is, are 14-5 this year vs. AL oppponents that allow 5.2+ runs per game and 14-5 vs. teams with a terrible bullpen (ERA 5.50+). The are also 17-5 vs. very bad teams (those being outscored by 1+ runs per game). Baltimore isn't a great team, but this is a great situation for them and Tampa Bay can't even beat bad teams. They are 8-28 the past two seasons in post-All Star play vs. losing opponents. Bedard is lights out and should keep Tampa down. With the D-Rays giving up runs in droves, Baltimore looks great here.
Game: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (2:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Milwaukee -118 (risk 2 to win 1.7)
Milwukee with a sweep win here would be the first team to get to 40 home victories. There is no team better at home than the Brew Crew. They have won seven straight over Philly here. Jeff Suppan has been average on the road but very good at home posting a 5-2 mark and he's off a gem vs. the Mets. Adam Eaton has been good if not great and the Phillies are a losing team on the road. Milwaukee has a distinct bullpen advantage in this one (3.59 home ERA vs. 4.50 road ERA for Philadelphia). In what appears to be a pretty even matchup, we need to give the nod to the team that just finds ways to win at home. The Brewers are especially potent at home vs. teams like the Phils that aren't defensive stalwarts, as they are 14-2 this season vs. NL teams that allow 4.8 runs per game. Throw in the fact that Philly is 12-26 this season as an underdog of +100 to +150 and we have a play on the home club.
Game: San Francisco at San Diego (4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on San Diego -126 (risk 4 to win 3.2)
As Bonds gets all the attention, San Diego goes for the sweep over the Giants. San Francisco has lost four of their last six as they continue to struggle on the road. They are now 22-34 away from home. Their offense is terrible vs. division foes (3.9 per game). The Pads have won three in a row and send Justin Germano to the mound. He has done poorly of late while his counterpart Noah Lowry has been very good lately. But again, too much emphasis on starters here. Lowry is 4-5 on the road thanks to his team's lack of run support. San Francisco's bullpen is below average while San Diego's is absolutely lights out. The Padres hit lefties well (4.7 runs per game vs. closer to 4 for righties). While they have lost bettors money overall, the Pads are 19-14 for +4.2 units vs. LHP. And, right now their offense is hitting on all cylinders as they are averaging 6.0 per game over their last seven. San Francisco has been weak all season long vs. winning teams (23-37 for -12.6 units). We see line value here as we think San Diego wins this game seven times out of then.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2007
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2007
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