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Game: Texas at Los Angeles Angels (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Texas +127 (risk 200 to win 254)

I think the starting pitching matchup is getting overvalued here. Ervin Santana has been very good at home this season but right now teh Angels bats aren't giving their pitchers much support. The Angels have lost four of their last five games while Texas has won five straight and six of seven thanks to some major offense. Over those seven games, Texas is blasting in 7.6 runs per game! LA is averaging 4.4 during their losing streak and just 4.2 overall per game at home this season. LA is just 8-14 this year vs. winning teams and 18-26 as a home favorite of -100 to -150! They just aren't a good team to back as a home favorite, especially when they'll likely need to score 5+ to get the victory. Texas as a live dog here.

The Yankees have taken over first place in the AL East and have won five straight and nine of ten. They are 5-2 vs. Baltimore this year including 3-1 here at Camden Yards. Mike Mussina comes in with a 3.28 ERA and 6-1 road record. The O's are 7-22 this season vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game (NY outscores opponents by nearly 1 run per game on average). Baltimore starts left-hander Adam Loewen who is 1-3 on the season with a 6.44 ERA. The Yankees eat up lefties having posted a 24-9 mark and scoring 6.2 per game against them. New York here.

KC has lost five of six games as they have had the recent pleasure of playing series against Texas, the White Sox and Minnesota. Both starters here have had poor seasons (Carlos Silva is 7-9 with a 6.49 ERA and Runelvys Hernandez is 2-6 with a 7.87 ERA). But, Silva has had a few decent starts as he's 2-0 with a 4.96 ERA in his last three while Herndez has gotten worse (8.81 ERA in his last three). Slight edge to Silva here. Offensively Minnesota has been poor on the road this season but they are scoring 6.4 per game over their last seven so they have some momentum coming into this one. They are also 41-25 vs. right handed starters this season while KC is just 30-48 vs. righties. Minnesota has a huge bullpen advantage too should both teams go to the pen early (quite likely). Minnesota enjoys the favorite role as they are 42-15 this season laying -110 or higher. Twins here.

Wow. St. Louis is in a major freefall. They've lost eight in a row and I don't see anything in this game that makes me think they'll break out of that slump. Anthony Reyes starts for the Cards and he's just 2-5 on the season including 1-2 with a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts. Ben Sheets goes for the Brewers and he's had an off year for sure. But, he's better than Reyes. St. Louis, usually unstoppable at home, is 10-13 this season at home vs. losing teams. They are also just 1-13 this year vs. a starter that averages 5+ strikeouts per start (Sheets averages 7.2). Gonna fade the Cards here as they are about as low as you can get right now.