Free Baseball Pick - August 04, 2009

We return to the MLB diamond today in the midst of a three-day MLB run of 15-4, 79% for +35 units! Over the last seven weeks, we are 124-87 (59%), for +96.4 units and on the season we are +65 units at 256-219! Six picks today.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	58-46 last 104 picks	56%	+$1580
MLB	124-87 last 211 picks	59%	+$9640
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$31000

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Yankees at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)

The Toronto Blue Jays have really been struggling, and it is a struggle that even the arm of Roy Halladay can't solve. The Jays once sat atop the American League East, and have fallen flat. The Jays are just 10-20 over their last 30 games. The fact is that the Blue Jays have gone just 1-5 in Halladay's last six starts, and have been outscored 25-16 in the process, hardly a team you want to be giving -1.5 runs. The Yankees have been playing nearly .667 baseball for over two months, and getting this kind of runline support on the plus side is where the value lies in this one. I'm going with the Yankees on the runline.

The Reds are just a bad team, even at home. They have a 23-29 record here, scoring only 3.9 runs per game. They produce even less offense vs. LHP like Gorzelanny (who has a 3-1 record in nine appearances this season). Johnny Cueto has been getting shelled of late as in his last three starts, he's posted a 6.88 ERA. In their last 16 games against winning teams this season, the Reds are just 2-14. I like the Cubbies here.

The Sox put a 3-1 beatdown on the Yankees, outscoring them 27-11 over their four-game series. Can they do the same to another hot team? I don't see it happening tonight. Los Anglees has won 17 of their last 20 including five straight. They've won eight straight on the road which is the club's best road run in over 20 years. Tonight they put John Lackey on the mound who is 7-4 overall, 3-1 on the road and a perfect 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels actually average more runs per game on the road (5.8) than they do at home. The White Sox simply don't have the offense to keep up here. With Jose Contreras on the mound the past three seasons, the White Sox are just 1-12 when facing teams that average 5.2+ runs per game. LA gets the call here.

The Angels own a 58-45 record vs. the run line this season, including 31-20 on the road. They have put up 8.3 runs per game over their last seven games and start a very hot pitcher in Lackey tonight. They have a winning record this season as a +115 to +160 dog on the run line as well. When going on the road off two straight wins, they are 18-6 to the run line this season. That includes a 8-1 mark if they scored 7+ runs in those those two wins. In his career, Jose Contreras is jsut 1-12 vs. the run line vs. AL teams that average 5.7+ runs per game. I like the Angels to notch a 2+ run win here.

The LA Dodgers are clearly the best team in the NL and currently, they have the best record in baseball. They stand tall at home with a 34-18 mark on the season. The Brewers carry a losing road record into this one, and they are above .500 against each division in the NL, except the West. When they have taken to the road against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher, they have faltered coming in with a 2-9 mark. Also, consistentcy has been an issue as they have followed a win by an identical 2-9 mark. The Dodgers have been almost impossible to beat with a 25-6 mark as a favorite from -110 to -150 and overall, they are now 58-23 as a favorite in their last 81 games in that role. The Dodgers have also been flawless in Kuroda's last six starts against the NL Central.

This Dodgers are a 25-6 team as a small to moderate favorite from -110 to -150. They have been dominating at home for quite some time carrying a 58-23 mark as a favorite, so getting the runline odds of 1.8 to 1 sure makes a lot of sense in this spot against a Brewer team that has struggled in this exact same position. I'll go with the Dodgers on the runline here.

Results: 4-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated 2009 MLB picks season results.
• Check out our updated mlb blog.
• Check out our updated MLB handicapping philosophy.
• Check out MLB record here.
• View Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball sportsbook here.
• Here we show our Baseball lines.
• View our updated mlb baseball picks.
• Take a look at our baseball ATS standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2009
Washington is 32-71 overall and 12-38 on the road. And we get to fade them at even money? I'll take that all day long. It's not as if we are backing an equally bad team here. The Pirates are a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2009
The Mets have struggled with injury issues all season long, and have finally begun to get hot as they have now won five of their last six games. The D-Backs are just 5-10 in their last 15 on the road....

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-30-2009
The Orioles have to feel good after beating Zack Grienke last night, scoring seven runs in the process. The Orioles have been a better-than-average team as long as they are playing at home where they ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2009
When Zack Greinke's name appears in the probable pitchers list, it is hard to ignore what he has done on the season. It also must be noted that he is just one element in many variables that enter ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2009
The Boston Red Sox don't lose too many games at home. When they are facing a team with a losing record on the season, those numbers jump off the page as they are 40-12, or have a winning percentag...