Mlb Free Picks - August 04, 2007
Underdogs have come barking hard the past three days and it has hurt us. Yesterday underdogs went 9-6. On Friday, they went 7-5 and Thursday 8-7. Three straight dog days has really thrown things for a loop. So, we shall adjust. We'll back down to just two plays today and go with a couple of dogs.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Boston at Seattle (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Seattle +133 (risk 2 to win 2.7)
Seattle has been a chamber of horrors for the Red Sox over the years. As good as Boston has been, they have not won a series here in over seven years! The Mariners are 19-7 over that period and have had done that with some very bad teams along the way. They have now taken nine straight here from Boston. The innings are mounting for Diasuke Matsuzaka, and he will end up the season over 200 innings. He had a career record of 108-60 in Japan, but the only two years he pitched over 200 innings he went 15-15 and 14-13 - his worst two years. There is also a trend developing when teams see him for a second time on the season. His numbers are worse than his overall performance, his strikeouts are down, his HRs up, and his walks up. His ERA facing a team for the second time is just about 5. This will be the third time for Seattle, who has solved him in each of his pervious two starts. Boston is a terror vs. RHP, where they have gone 50-26. The story is completely different vs. LHP, where they are a sub-.500 and money burning 15-17. This team has been mediocre for almost 60 games now as they have posted a 30-28 record over their last 58, including just 12-15 on the road. The Mariners are 25-9 in their last 34 at home, and have been a very streaky team. They have had losing streaks of 6, 6 and 7 games, and winning streaks of 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5 and 8 games. The good news is they are on a streak right now, winners of 6 of 7, and we will ride them as a home dog in this one.
Game: Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Arizona +170 (risk 2 to win 3.4)
We get nice value in this one. The big favorite here has lost ten of their last fourteen games while our dog has won eleven of thirteen. Why is the cold team such a large favorite vs. the hot team? The starting pitching matchup must be playing a role. But, is Derek Lowe pitching that much better than Livan Hernandez? Not really. Both have sub-.500 records. Lowe has the better overall ERA but Hernadez has been decent (4.98 on the year). And both are equally cold right now. Over their past three starts, both have given up close to 1 run per inning. The difference here just isnt' that big. Arizona is just one game under .500 on the road while LA is barely over .500 at home - again not a big difference. We know Arizona doesn't score a lot, but right now LA can't score either. They are avergaging 3.0 per game over their last nine games. The bottom line is that we get a very favorable line here on a big underdog that looks to have a 50% shot at winning this game. At a time when the dogs are barking loudly, that spells tremendous value.
Results: 1-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
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