Baseball Betting Pick - August 03, 2007
MLB picks hitting 57% (198-152) for +52 units on the season. Three more plays today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: New York Mets at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -148 (risk 3 to win 2)
Carlos Zambrano got off to a horrific start, but in his last 11 starts, he has been unhittable. Zambrano has worked 76.2 innings and has allowed just 37 hits while striking out 77, and batters are hitting just .157 off him. He has lowered his ERA in all 11 starts and has not given up more than five hits in any of the 11 starts. The Cubs are also baseball's hottest team, having gone 25-11 over their last 36 games. Zambrano also provides the Cubs with a "DH" in the nine spot, as he is hitting .291 with 2 HRs and has belted 12 in his career. The Mets started the season with a lineup and pitching staff that looked like once they completed the season would be in the World Series. They have now completed the last third of the season as a sub-.500 team, going just 26-28 in their last 54 games, and on the season just a .500 team on the road against teams .500+. It's hard to ignore a pitcher as hot as Zambrano, and a team as hot as the Cubs playing at home as a moderate favorite.
Game: Colorado at Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Atlanta -161 (risk 2 to win 1.2)
The Rockies are 9-18 this year on the road against winning teams and 5-21 the past two seasons during second-half play in this situation. They have historically fared very poorly against the Braves. Atlanta has swept the Rockies at home three out of the past four years. They are 10-2 over Colorado overall the past twelve at home. To make it that much harder for Colorado, the Braves send ace John Smoltz to the mound. He's got a 1.98 home ERA and has been on fire of late. In his last three starts he has allowed just 4 BB, 1 HR and 4 earned runs while striking out 21 batters. Holding this line down is the record of Jeff Francis (11-5). But he has been the beneficiary of great run support in his starts. His ERA is decent but not great (4.12). Atlanta has a big bullpen advantage too. They have a home ERA of 3.47 and a save percentage of 77%. The Colorado pen has a road save percentage of just 55%. Yes, Colorado's offense has been hot lately but not as hot as Atlanta's. The Braves are averaging 8.7-runs per game over their last seven. Great pitcher vs. average pitcher in a matchup the home team has historically dominated. We'll back the home club.
Game: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Philadelphia +147 (risk 2 to win 2.9)
The Phil's are a hot team having gone 14-7 in their last 21, while Milwaukee has been just 5-11 in their last 16. The Brewer staff has collapsed having allowed 6 runs a game over the last 14. Everyone points to the Brewers mastery at home, but a closer look is very revealing. The Brewers are feasting on cupcakes. They are 25-6 against teams below .500, and just 12-14 against teams above .500. Yovani Gallardo has some good numbers, but the reality is he hasn't seen any offensively deep lineups like he will face tonight. Kyle Kenderick has been very consistent, and the Phil's have been 7-2 in his nine starts. The Phillies have struggled against LHP, but rank second in the NL against RHP vs. the moneyline, while the Brewers are a negative team against RHP. The Phillies take the opener in Milwaukee.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-02-2007
The Yankees have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break and have sandwiched a 35-11 run around a 2-9 road trip. Their offense is peaking right now, having scored over 200 runs in July. T...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2007
The Yankees have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break. They have truly been the Bronx Bombers at home. They belted eight HR's yesterday, and have averaged 18 runs per gam...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2007
Chuck James has been hot as he has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts and has been consistently good. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of those starts. Chris Sampson h...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2007
Matt Garza has pitched extremely well since being recalled from AAA, and looks like the pitcher the Twins expected him to be last season. Garza was 11-3 last season in the minors, and this season was ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2007
The Jays staff has been very hot, leading to a 6-2 mark over their last eight games. They have allowed less than two runs a game over these eight games and tonight will bring Roy Halladay to the mound...
