Baseball Picks - August 02, 2008

We dropped our lone pick on yesterday. Today we feature three MLB premium picks.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Milwaukee at Atlanta (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.1)

Despite some good numbers, Sabathia's teams have only been 11-11 on the season when he takes the mound. This is also a Brewers’ team that has dropped five of their last six games, with opponents scoring six or more runs in the five losses. Atlanta has been a dreadful team on the road, but has been cashing at home with a 32-24 mark. The Brewers have also been a lethal 23-12 against LHP, but a mediocre 38-37 against righties. The Brewers have their worst mark against any NL Division against the East at 11-11. Charlie Morton did tame this Brewers’ lineup with a six-inning two-run performance earlier, so we like the value on the Braves here.

It isn’t too often that you get a team at home with +1.5 runs and even money or better. The Braves have lost 59 games on the season, but they are 6-23 in one-run games, meaning they stay close in their losses. The Braves would be 73-36 if given +1.5 runs a game, turning 23 losses into wins. Atlanta has been a dreadful team on the road, but has been cashing at home with a 32-24 mark. This is also a Brewers’ team that has dropped five of their last six games with opponents scoring six or more runs in the five losses. We will ride the value in the runline here.

Hiroki Kuroda may be hitting the wall for the Dodgers. Kuroda has only managed 11.2 innings in his last three starts getting banged around for 17 runs for an ERA of 13.11. He has allowed five runs or more in five of his last nine starts compared to just one in his first 11. Yusmeiro Petit had been relegated to the pen for most of '08, but his two starts have produced results, where he has worked 11 innings and allowing just two runs. The D-Backs are also back to their winning ways having won nine of their last 11, and the pitching has been outstanding, allowing three runs or less in nine of the 11 games. We like the D-Backs here in a valued dog role.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our blog baseball here.
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• Read our MLB ATS records here.
• Read our 2008 MLB baseball season prior picks here.
• Check out 2008 season MLB handicapping preview here.
• Updated today: betting mlb.
• Don't forget to visit our baseball handicapping.
• Read our sportsbook reviews baseball here.
• Take a look at our Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Read our MLB prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2008
The Brewers let a big opportunity pass them by as they were swept at home by the Cubs in four straight games. We have to believe they head on the road with a damaged psyche. The Brewers didn't jus...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2008
The Rockies have been a poor road team for years with '08 being no exception. While they have done respectfully well against the sub .500 teams posting a 10-11 mark, it has been a nightmare for th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-30-2008
Oakland was right in the midst of looking like a wildcard contender a couple weeks ago as they had run out to a 51-42 mark. Those nine games over .500 have since evaporated into a 2-11 slide. This sli...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2008
The Braves have been shelled for 34 runs in their last three games. The bullpen is decimated thanks to having to come in early and often (no started made it past the fourth inning in those three games...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2008
The Rays have been the biggest surprise of the season leading the AL East over the Red Sox and Yankees. Most of that success can be attributed to their dominance at home where they are 40-16. The road...