Free Baseball Pick - August 02, 2007

3-2 yesterday for +4.1. We now stand at 197-148 for +62 units on the season. Today we have five plays again.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -1.5 -116 (risk 3 to win 2.6)

The Yankees have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break and have sandwiched a 35-11 run around a 2-9 road trip. Their offense is peaking right now, having scored over 200 runs in July. They have blasted 13 HRs in the past two games. They are 30-4 against the -1.5 runline in wins at the Stadium and 23-2 in the last 25. They have outscored the opponent 213-76 in those 25 wins or by 5.5-runs per game (RPG). They are also a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 against the runline when the moneyline is over 200. They win those games 95-31 or by 6.4-rpg. The Yankees as a team are hitting over .300 at the Stadium on the entire season, while the White Sox have the lowest team average in the AL, and the lowest slugging percentage as well. The moneyline is quite steep, so why not play the runline when you have a team scoring in huge bunches, and dominating RHP with a Hall of Famer on the mound as well? As we did yesterday, we'll back the Yankees -1.5 runs here on the runline.

The Orioles have been a different team lately, as they have gone 12-6 over their last 18. They have given the Sox all they can handle, and have actually outscored them in this series which is even at 1-1. They have a decided pitching advantage in this one with Jeremy Gutherie. Gutherie has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his 17 starts, and two runs or less in 13 of 17. That puts a lot of pressure on Tim Wakefield, who after a great start, has pitched poorly. Since May 10, Wakefield has worked 85 innings allowed 102 hits, while pitching to a 6.14 ERA. While Gutherie has allowed three runs or less in 15 of 17 starts, Wakefield has allowed four or more in 10 of 14. This is a matchup that is likely to remove Boston's strength - the back of the pen. If they are trailing, the big guns stay out of the game. The Red Sox have been mediocre since the end of May, compiling a 27-25 record. The offense has been very inconsistent, as they have had 20 games since June 5, of 2 runs or less. The value is with the Birds here and we will ride them to the series win over the Sox.

This line is because of Jake Peavy. It is overly inflated and hard to resist. Anytime we can get a red-hot team against a cold team with this kind of odds we are jumping in. The D-backs have won the first two in this series and have now gone 10-1 in their last 11. Yusmeiro Petit has kept Arizona in every game he has pitched and his 3.44 ERA is certainly worthy of a line of this magnitude. The padres are just 3-9 in their last 12 games. They have been shutout twice, and held to one run twice. It is a team that has scored three runs or less on 51 occasions this season, or almost half their games. Peavy was unhittable early on, and the Padres were 12-3 over his first 15 starts. They have been just 2-4 over his last six starts, and his ERA has climbed to 3.44 over his last seven, equal to what Petit has done. This line made sense in April, May and into June, but with the D-Backs red hot and the Padres struggling and Peavy settling down to be good, not great it is an opportunity to take some value into this game.

The Nationals are a much better team over the past month and in large part because of Mike Bacsik, and a bullpen that led the majors with a 1.92 ERA in July. The Nats are 13-8 in their last 21 games, and have held opponents to under four runs a game over their last 25. Bacsik has not allowed more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Reds offense has produced just six runs in their last four games, and that spells trouble against a hot staff, a hot pitcher - and a LHP as well. The Reds are among the worst teams in baseball against LHP as they are a unit burning 15-26 for -10.65 units. They are also just 28-57 in games not started by Harang, and 12-32 on the road. Nats get the sweep.

Barry Bonds doesn't seem to want to break this record, yet. Since getting #754, he's gone 1-for-12. He's 6-for-22 lifetime against Brett Tomko. Tomko has been average at best for most of the season but he's shown signs of improvement. While he did give up five runs against Colorado in his last outing, he held his two prior opponents (the Mets and these Giants) to just four runs total. He's got a 3.18 ERA over those three games. Barry Zito has been a major disappointment. He's 7-10 on the year and 4-7 on the road. Over his last three starts he's gotten shelled to the tune of a 7.72 ERA. LA has the bullpen advantage here too. The Giants are 21-32 on the road and 31-44 against RHP. They score just 4.3 runs per game. LA gets 4.6 per game but a whopping 5.2 per game against lefties. They are 18-12 against southpaws, batting .289. They are also a great play for bettors in night games and division games. LA has also been a great bet in post All-Star break play when facing losing teams the past two seasons going 40-19 over that span. They are 22-7 during August overall in that span. We think Barry will have to wait at least one more game and the Dodgers get the rubber match here.

Results: 1-4

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-01-2007
The Yankees have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break. They have truly been the Bronx Bombers at home. They belted eight HR's yesterday, and have averaged 18 runs per gam...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2007
Chuck James has been hot as he has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts and has been consistently good. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of those starts. Chris Sampson h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2007
Matt Garza has pitched extremely well since being recalled from AAA, and looks like the pitcher the Twins expected him to be last season. Garza was 11-3 last season in the minors, and this season was ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2007
The Jays staff has been very hot, leading to a 6-2 mark over their last eight games. They have allowed less than two runs a game over these eight games and tonight will bring Roy Halladay to the mound...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2007
Are we crazy backing Minnesota here? They are on a down streak having lost seven of nine games. But, hang on - three of those losses came to Detroit in Detroit. All three were one-run losses. They the...