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Game: Texas at Minnesota (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Texas +120 (risk 200 to win 240)

Francisco Liriano, scheduled to start for the Twins, sits this one out with an inflamed left elbow. Too bad for Minnesota as he is 12-2 with a 1.96 ERA. Instead, Boof Bonser gets the call. Bosner has average stats with a 2-2 record and 5.30 ERA. But, he lasts just 5.1 innings per start. Minnesota's bullpen is excellent but they may have to go to it very early in this one as Texas is pounding the ball (6.1 runs per game over their last seven). Kip Wells goes for Texas and he's got to be happy to be out of Pittsburgh. Over his last three starts he's posted a stellar 1.83 ERA. The Rangers have a winning road record this season including a 13-8 mark vs. very good teams that outscore opponents by 0.5 runs per game. The Twins were hammered last game 0-9 and they are just 7-16 this season following a game in which they scored under 3 runs. I like Texas and a motivated Wells to steal this one.

The rubber game in this match features Esteban Loaiza vs. Kelvim Escobar. Loaiza has a 6.72 ERA, 7.34 on the road and 8.36 over his last three starts. He's 4-7 on the year. In contrast, Escobar has a 3.84 ERA, 3.65 at home and 3.79 over his last three starts. Obviously a huge advantage to LA. Oakland scores just 4.6 per game on the road and that's 4.4 overall in their last seven games. They are 5-2 over that stretch though thanks to great defense. They have allowed just 2.9 per game over that stretch and average 4.6 runs per game allowed on the road this season. The Angels have not scored much this season at home (4.2 per game) but are hitting it very well of late averaging 6.6 per game over their last seven. With that kind of offense and the way Loaiza is pitching, LA should be able to score 5+ tongiht which will be enough for the win.

Ricky Nolasco has pitched very well in his last three outings against the Phillies, Pirates and Nationals. But those aren't exactly hitting forces. The game prior he was shelled by these Mets when he gave up nine runs in less than two innings of action. Unlike his more recent opponents, the Mets can hit as they put up 5.9 per game on the road and over their past seven games they've averaged 6.6 per contest. What will break here? Will the Mets offense slow or will Nolasco get hit? Consider that road underdogs of up to +150 that are hot offensively (batting .333 or better over their last 3 games) vs. a starting pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 25-11 (69%) since 1997. I'm betting on the offense of the Mets here.

Chicago goes for the sweep - big surprise. They need to win these kinds of games to stay even with Boston for the AL wild-card. The line here is within reason as KC starts Luke Hudson who boasts a 3.42 ERA in his starts. Freddy Garcia goes for the White Sox. He's got a higher 4.85 ERA but he's 10-6 and 5-3 on the road for a reason - Chicago can hit. The Sox average 5.7 per game on the road and 6.0 vs. right handed starters. Over their last seven games they are getting nearly 7 runs per game. KC gives up 5.8 per game at home and they are allowing 6.6 per game over their last seven. Good teams (54%+) after 2 or more consecutive wins are 179-66 (73%) when playing a terrible team (38% or worse) over the last 5 seasons. Over the past two seasons, Chicago is 16-4 after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games. White Sox for the sweep.