Free Mlb Predictions - August 01, 2007

We missed on two of three yesterday as our see-saw July continued. Starting off the month with a 5-play card.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -1.5 -119 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

The Yankees have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break. They have truly been the Bronx Bombers at home. They belted eight HR's yesterday, and have averaged 18 runs per game at home in their last three at the Stadium. When this team gets it going, they are a monster. After scoring double digits, they are 11-3 on the season, and although they have not been kind to bettors overall, they are a plus unit proposition when they have won at least 7 of their last 10, and plus units after a win in game one of a series. The White Sox have the lowest team average in the AL and the lowest team slugging percentage. They also are 10-21 against LHP. The Yankee struggles against LHP is noted, but this is a different team now. They have averaged 7 runs per game in their last five games vs. lefties. The Yankees are 29-4 to the -1.5 runline in their Stadium wins, so when they win, they win big.

The Pirates never came back from the All-Star break, having gone just 2-14 and displaying absolute futility in both pitching and hitting. They have now been out-scored 93-53 in their last 16 games, or by 2.5 runs per game. The last week things have gotten worse. The team is hitting just .241, and the Pitching has posted a 7.13 ERA. A struggling offense must now face a pitcher that has dominated them top to bottom. Brandon Looper has amazing numbers against this Pirate roster. Collectively the Pirates are 5-70 against Looper, good for a .071 team average. The Cards are on a roll, winning four straight and 5 of 6. The offense has led the way, producing 38 runs in the 5 wins. Tony Armas will make his first start since May. Armas pitched to an 8.46 ERA, and lost his spot in the rotation. It will be doubtful if Armas can get through five innings, as he has not worked more than three innings since May. That exposes a Pirate pen that has been kerosene for opposing hitters. Armas teams have gone 21-35 with him on the mound over the last three years, and these are teams playing at completely different levels right now, with a clear-cut pitching mis-match. Cards go up 2-0 in this series.

Houston has dropped three of four. They have surrendered 30 runs in their past two games. Meanwhile Atlanta has won two straight by a combined score of 26-4. The Astros look to Wandy Rodriguez to stop the bleeding but that's not likely. He's 1-7 in his road starts with a 7.43 ERA! Opposing him is Buddy Carlyle who has a 5-3 record (4-2 at home). He's got better numbers across the board than does Rodriguez. Backing up Rodriguez is a horrible pen with a 5.00 ERA and 57% save percentage. Atlanta's pen is very good, especially at home (3.46 ERA and 77% save). While Atlanta doesn't fare that well vs. lefties, Houston's offense is much worse. MLB teams that have scored 9+ runs in two straight games vs. an opponent that has given up 9+ runs in two straight games are 64-26 (71%) over the past five seasons. Houston is a dismal 4-16 this season on the road vs. winning teams and 3-13 on the road after a big loss by 4+ runs. This line is low and we'll take the hot home team vs. the cold weak road club.

Don't look now but the Twins have won four straight. Brian Bannister comes in with better numbers than Boof Bonser but KC has other major issues. They are scoring just 4.3 runs per game on the road and 4.4 vs. right handers. Indoors they are 1-7 averaging 3.0 runs per game. Minnesota is 30-24 at home and their bullpen is lights-out. They are 33-13 the past two seasons at home at -125 to -175.

The hottest team in baseball right now is Arizona. The D-Backs have rattled off 9 of 10, including the opener in this series. David Wells gets the nod for the Padres and he may be closing in on the end. One of the sure signs he is losing something is his control. Wells has been among the most accurate pitchers in baseball, as his walk total did not exceed 21 for 4 consecutive seasons. This year in just over 100 innings that total is already 32. Pitching in the hitting zone is getting him in trouble. Last year he allowed 11 HR's and this season 16 already. As the season wears on, he is wearing down. Six of those homers have been served up in his last seven innings, along with 6 BB's in his last seven innings. That has all led to a 17.18 ERA in his last two starts. The D-Backs have been among the best teams all season vs. LHP, posting an 18-12 record, and +8 units of profit for those backing them. That is 4th best in MLB. The Padres are not only playing poorly of late, having won just three of their last 11, they have been playing poorly for quite some time. The Pads are just 9-15 in their last 24 and 21-26 in their last 47. Got a very live dog here.

Results: 3-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our mlb sportsbook reviews here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 season MLB baseball gambling preview.
• Read our 2007 baseball pick season results here.
• Here we show our MLB Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View our updated MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy.
• Take a look at our mlb baseball handicapping here.
• Hop over to our MLB Baseball odds lines and spreads here.
• View MLB ATS records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-31-2007
Chuck James has been hot as he has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts and has been consistently good. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of those starts. Chris Sampson h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2007
Matt Garza has pitched extremely well since being recalled from AAA, and looks like the pitcher the Twins expected him to be last season. Garza was 11-3 last season in the minors, and this season was ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2007
The Jays staff has been very hot, leading to a 6-2 mark over their last eight games. They have allowed less than two runs a game over these eight games and tonight will bring Roy Halladay to the mound...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2007
Are we crazy backing Minnesota here? They are on a down streak having lost seven of nine games. But, hang on - three of those losses came to Detroit in Detroit. All three were one-run losses. They the...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2007
The Mets have awakened from mediocre play, and have now won 8-of-11, and are poised to sweep the Pirates. Oliver Perez has not allowed more than seven hits in any start since April, and his recent ERA...