MLB Baseball Picks August 01, 2006

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August 01, 2006

darrell,

Ended July on a good note hitting all three last night. Just one I like today...

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Good luck today...

Game: Houston at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Houston +130 (risk 300 to win 390)

Andy Pettitte vs. Jake Peavy. If I mentioned this matchup at the start of the season you'd probably be pretty excited for a great pitching duel. Well, both have losing records and ERAs over five. But, over their last three starts Pettitte is 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA while Peavy is 1-2 with an 8.47 ERA. Edge to Pettitte. The Pads are just 20-24 as a favorite this season including 12-21 at home. They are also 6-13 vs. losing teams this year. Also, road underdogs of +125 to +175 after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more runs are 26-13 (67%) in August games over the past decade. San Diego is a losing home team that scores just 4.1 per game at home. They should not be laying -140 to Petitte and the Astros.

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.

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