Baseball Betting Pick - April 30, 2008

We went 3-4 for -4.3 units yesterday. We came close to a huge night with the Pirates at +210 taking the Mets to 11 innings (couldn't score with bases loaded and 1 out in ninth) and the Giants balking in the deciding run on our 5-unit play. Each was a 9.3 unit swing (18.6 unit combined swing). Argggh. We look to build on our +15.8 units the past four days with seven more picks today including two 5-unit selections...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at New York Mets (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)

Tom Gorzelanny pitched a bad team to an 8-9 record on the road last season, which means he keeps his team in games, and has posted an ERA under four over the last two seasons. The Mets have been in a lot of close games, which means the back of the pen has logged a lot of innings, and Wagner has pitched in the last three, blowing the save last night. Perez is not a pitcher that goes deep in games, as he has completed six innings just once this season. Perez has walked 15 in his last 21 innings of work, and the Pirates will have opportunities in this one. His lone appearance against the Pirates last year, at home, resulted in a loss and the Pirates have a good chance of stealing one here today.

The D-Backs are now officially on the radar of the betting public. They are 19-8 after their loss last night. No other team has more than 16 wins and they lead the NL in runs scored and fewest runs allowed. It may just be time to fade this team. Shawn Chacon is not getting enough credit here. He has posted an excellent 2.45 ERA in five outings. On the road it's 1.29 ERA and over his last three starts he has gone 21 innings allowing just 16 hits, one HR and 4 earned runs! Most look at Houston's average of just 4.4 runs per game and see a team that can't hang with the mighty Diamondbacks. But we see an Astros team that has won seven of their last ten games, averaging 5.7 runs per game! At this price, we like the Stros in what is a very winnable game.

The Braves have dropped three straight and four of six and put a turnaround in the hands of a rookie. Meanwhile the Nats have won four of five. Atlanta is averaging only 4.1 runs per game on the road where they are 4-10 thus far. Washington's offense has been very weak but is improving (4.4 per game over their last seven). The Braves are amazingly just 7-13 the past two seasons vs. teams at .380 or worse. They are also 73-78 as a favorite of -100 to -150 the past three seasons. They are also 1-8 this season on the road to a line of -125 to +125. Meanwhile, Washington is 41-31 vs. losing teams ovver that span. We like the Nats at home.

Two teams that are perennially playing to avoid last place are playing for first in the AL East. The Rays have won six of their last seven games while Baltimore has split their last eight. Andy Sonnanstine hasn't lost in three starts. Baltimore goes with first-year pitcher Matt Albers who comes out of the pen where he has pitched well. But with the starting responsibility, we are going to fade him. Tampa is getting 5.1 runs per game vs. RHP while Baltimore is averaging just 4.2. We like the Rays who have more momentum, a better offense, and a more tested pitcher.

We have to give high consideration to the Mariners at this price vs any LHP. This season the M's are averaging 6 runs per game vs southpaws, and last year they finished 28-13 vs LHP. Lee has pitched way over his head, and with 25 innings in his last three starts, this could be the spot where he falters, especially when you consider he pitched to a 6.29 ERA last season. Washburn has pitched well enough to win, and the M's have not scored less than 4 runs vs a LHP yet this season. In contrast, Cleveland is netting just 4.1 runs per game vs. southpaws. They are also 1-6 this season at home vs. teams allowing under 4.8 runs per game. The Mariners have certainly been worthy of a play against any LHP they face, especially in this price range.

The Marlins are surprising everyone. With a tiny payroll, they are in first place at the end of April in the NL East. It is due in large part to the development of Scott Olson. The Marlins are 5-0 in his starts already this season, and he looks like he has turned into a top flight pitcher. The stuff was never an issue. It was always command. But he has finally found the strike-zone consistently, and good things are happening. Chad Billingsley has been a reliever, then a starter and Joe Torre used him out of the pen to start the season. Then he ended up in the rotation once again. He has had a lot of trouble, as the Dodgers are 0-4 in his starts, and he isn't pitching very deep into games and the middle of the Dodger pen has been awful. Los Angeles has manaaged just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. Florida is 8-2 this season after a loss and we like them with a maturing Olsen to get one at home.

We got the "W" with the Royals last night and will back them again tonight. They lok to Brian Bannister who is 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA. He does have two straight losses but he's pitched well throughout. In his last game, a loss, he gave up just 4 hits and 2 runs in nearly seven innings. Kevin Millwood goes for Texas and he's off a terrible 5 run peformance in six innings Friday. He's never had much success against the Royals. So, we get a pretty even pitching matchup here although we give the edge to KC both in terms of starter and bullpen. Texas is just 4-8 at home averaging 4.5 runs per game and going against that, with a pitching advantage, spells value.

Results: 3-4

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-29-2008
Seattle has lost two straight series and have lost six of their last nine games. But, tonight they put Carlos Silva ont he mound. He's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA. He's coming off an injury but we are...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-28-2008
Chicago goes for the series win with Javier Vazquez but they must get through Daniel Cabrera to get it. Cabrera is 2-0 and coming off a great performance on Wednesday in which he allowed just 2 runs a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-27-2008
It's been a long road trip thus far as Philly plays their seventh in a row away from home here. They have been very good on this trip and have won three straight and six of seven. Brett Myers has ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-26-2008
Cleveland is rolling having won four straight and they get to face Ian Kennedy who is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA. He's already given up 13 walks in 14 innings. A-Rod returned last game but it didn't ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-25-2008
Tim Wakefield has dominated this Rays team to the tune of a 19-3 carreer mark and a 3.12 ERA. Last year the Sox cruised to a 5-1 mark with Wakefield on the hill vs Tampa Bay. Matt Garza has been disap...