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Horse Handicapper - September 13, 2008"Big Brown" will make his turf debut (providing the race stays on the grass) in the $500,000 "Monmouth Stakes" at a distance of 1 1/8th miles today. The field has attracted a total of 11 runners and The Derby and The Preakness winner will have his work cut out for him. We've included it as one of our five races on today's Newsletter, with the other four coming from Belmont Park. A reminder that we now "FEATURE" alternate selections for our grass races in the event that they are are switched to the main track due to weather related issues. They will be at the bottom of the selections under the "Special Race Notes" section. Today's Best Bet is #8 Hangingonaprayer in Race #2 at Belmont Park. Friday's Results: Belmont Race #5 Top Pick #6 (Dirty Water Dog) $5.40. Belmont Race #9 BEST BET #8 (Messa Nera) $10.00.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #7 (GOLD DEPUTY) - Excellent return race on Sept. 5, off a three month layoff. Stayed close, had to steady twice and stayed on well to finish third beaten a length. Rises a bit in price, but he should be much fitter today. Lone win came at this track and by our "figures" it's the best any of these has ever run. 2nd pick: #4 (Grand Treasure) - Takes the plunge into a claimer for the first time. Fits if he brings his "A" game and the drop will make him competitive with these. 3rd pick: #9 (Artytheonemanparty) - Stayed on well in his lone Spa. appearance to finish second to a runner who came back to take another. Good speed in his arsenal and a good post at this distance to use it from. 4th pick: #8 (Ship's Piano) - Claimed early in the Saratoga meet by John Parisella from the fine Neil Howard barn. He's worked four times since and returns at $10K below the purchase price. "Caution" falg is up, but Coa's presence balances that out. BELMONT PARK Race #2 at 1:30 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (HANGINGONAPRAYER) - Strong late rally from a poor post at Saratoga on August 2, just fell short. Race was her first in two months and she should be "razor' sharp in her second back off the rest. 2nd pick: #1 (Bar City) - Filly has shown an affinity for the turf since she started her career in Canada last year. Showed good speed in her last at Saratoga, her first race in eight months. She's worked well since and any move forward off that race makes her a win contender. 3rd pick: #3 (Catty Madeline) - Broke her maiden on this course at this distance two back when lasix was added in start number two. Had traffic issues in her first try against winners at Saratoga and is a threat here with a clean break. 4th pick: #4 (Judges Pride) - Shortens up for this after a pair of longer races on the Spa. lawn. Should be racing about mid-pack and have a shot with a late rally. Odds should be more than square. 5th pick: #10 (John's Jean) - Nice return run saw her set all the pace and tire late. Race was her first in 2 1/2 months and she should be much fitter for this assignment. Special Race Notes: Selections if this race is run on the main track: 1a-C.T.Phone Home #7-Kitty Nip #2-Mia #5-Laurens Go Go BELMONT PARK Race #3 at 2:00 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (PORTABLE ALPHA) - Runner cost $397,000 as a two-year-old in March of '07. Debut in July was solid as he pressed the pace while between runners and stayed on well to finish fourth beaten less than six lengths. He's had almost two months since that run and should improve enough to be a win contender. 2nd pick: #4 (Pegasian) - Excellent try in latest as he stayed near a solid pace, rallied when asked, and fought it out with a heavy favorite who had much more experience. Race was the best effort any of these have run and guarantees him being a short-priced favorite. Tough to beat. 3rd pick: #2 (Knife and Fork) - Moves up in class after finishing second at Saratoga in a $35,000 maiden claimer on August 22. Working well, and in his first go-round last winter was heavily backed at the windows. Runs well at a square price. MONMOUTH PARK Race #9 (THE MONMOUTH STAKES) at 4:45 PM Eastern Top pick: #11 (SILVER TREE) - Wonderful runner in that at age eight he is still able to compete at this top level with remarkable consistency. His record over the past two years is (12-6-3-0), almost all in stakes. Proved in his last that he can handle this course, and need only avoid a poor trip from this outside post to give "Brown" a run for his money. 2nd pick: #6 (Proudinsky) - Troubled trip in the "Baruch" at Saratoga, saw him only beaten less than two lenghts. Capable at this level and a recent "bullet" drill at Belmont signals that trainer Bob Frankel wants him involved in the running from the time the gate opens. 3rd pick: #4 (Big Brown) - Never easy to do something for the first time in anything. Only "blemish" on runner's A1 resume is his Belmont "fiasco". "Haskell" win was hard earned and well deserved. He impressed me more in that one than in his other wins. He was a "beaten" horse at the sixteenth pole, but dug deep and summoned something extra to get the job done. That's the sign of a really good horse, not one that wins by daylight when un-challenged. That said, he'll have to run at least as well in his first grass race as there are some "hard-hitters" signed on. Turf works indicate a fondness for the surface. May scratch if the race is run on anything but "firm" turf, which is a strong possibility. 4th pick: #3 (Shakis) - Has a pair of wins in the "Bernard Baruch" stakes at Saratoga in the past two years. The trouble is the four efforts in-between those two are very mediocre. Old-timer will need to repeat one of those performances to have a shot today. 5th pick: #5 (Kiss the Kid) - Makes his all-important third start back from a layoff. Brings good speed to the contest and he's more than capable at being in this at the finish, and at a big price. Special Race Notes: Selections if this race is run on the main track: #4-Big Brown #5-Kiss the Kid #9-Fagedaboutit Sal BELMONT PARK Race #10 at 5:30 PM Eastern Top pick: #1 (Radical Sabbaitcal) - Raced very wide at Saratoga from a terrible post (12) in his return from a 10-month layoff. Son of "Harlan's Holiday had trained in fast fashion before that return run and should be much fitter today. Moves from the outside post to the hedge. 2nd pick: #6 (Expansion) - Cuts back in distance off a strong second in an 11-furlong race where the winner came back to win another next out. Should be dead fit off that marathon and may go off favored here. 3rd pick: #2 (Manitowish Waters) - Son of "Doneraille Court" showed a lot of talent and grittiness last season in several turf appearances. Hasn't raced since last Halloween, but is training fast and steadily. 4th pick: #9 (Olympus) - Blinkers go on today for this beautifully-bred son of "Kingmambo". Closed some ground in his latest at Monmouth and has been training like a much improved runner. Special Race Notes: Selections if this race is run on the main track: #3-Major General #5-Eldaafer #11-Due to Get Even #7-Masterofthehouse Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-September-12-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-September-11-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-September-10-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-September-09-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-September-08-2008 |
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