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Handicapping Preakness - October 27, 2007Welcome to Breeder's Cup day at Monmouth Park. We have selected the six races that in our opinion offer the greatest chance for wagering success. Monmouth will offer every imaginable type of wager on these races. Win-place-show, exactas, trifectas, superfectas, pick-threes, pick six etc. The only horses that will probably be heavy favorites on the card are #4 Indian Blessing in Race No. 4 from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, and #2 War Pass in Race No. 5 from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. The other races are all pretty open wagering affairs. We have given you five horses in all the races except the Classic, where because of the size of the field we limited it to four. We have given five as superfectas, wagering (top four) finishers is available, and .10 superfectas are available. That's right TEN CENTS! You would receive 1/10th of the Dollar Payout. Today's best bet is #4 Indian Blessing in Race No. 4. Good luck to you all!  Today's Horse Racing Picks: (#4) INDIAN BLESSING - Bob Baffert trained filly has been ultra-impressive in her two starts to date. Broke her maiden at Saratoga on August 30, and the word had preceded her arrival from California that she could really motor. Won as she pleased from an inside post after the rider asked her for more around the far turn. Its unusual for any horse to go from a maiden into a Grade 1 stakes and even rarer to win it, but this filly made it look very easy as she took command at the start and drew off to another handy win. Tells me how special the connections thought she was as Baffert obviously had this progression in mind right along. Continues to work extremely fast, and she may just wait a furlong or two before taking the lead. Only question that remains is that she hasnt raced around two turns. Filly may be something special. (#10) Proud Spell - Has done nothing wrong in three starts, but she gets a tough post draw for her first start around two turns. Has a proven rating gear and can pass horses rather easily. Need to work out a trip where she can save some ground and avoid traffic. (#5) Irish Smoke - Another who went from a maiden to winning a Grade 1 (the Spinaway) before shipping to Keeneland for the Alcibiades S. Broke poorly, rushed into contention, and predictably tired late. Has stayed at Keeneland and done her major preparation over that artificial surface, and shipped here several days ago for this. Working fast, and her success on conventional dirt is significant. (#3) Tashas Miracle - Significant ability shown in mid-summer, breaking her maiden and winning the Sorrento at Del Mar. On the sidelines for seven weeks since that stakes win, she came back in a Grade 1 (Oak Leaf Stakes) and ran well in that first try around two turns, and did so from a wide post. Working well, and blinkers go on - an unorthodox move in a major race. (#8) Izarra - Has displayed ample ability for master trainer Ron McAnally. Excellent second in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf, rating well and finishing strong. Shes still learning the game, and further improvement is well within her reach. MONMOUTH PARK Race #FIVE - JUVENILE BREEDERS CUP (1:10 PM Eastern) (#3) KODIAK COWBOY - Colt by fine young sire "Posse" is one of a pair in here from the top Steve Asmussen barn. This runner has been a good consistent performer since day one. Its unusual for two-year-olds that start in the spring to stay in training throughout the year, and actually improve their performances. This horse has maintained a high level of effort and has proven that he belongs in this race. With a Pletcher-less field, Asmussen reaches out to John Velasquez for the mount. Colt has enough speed to stay close, and the pair inside of him may both be sent hard. That would give him an excellent trip, and he has proven that he can pass horses and finish strong. Taken to post a mild upset. (#2) War Pass - Has done nothing wrong in going three-for-three since getting to the races at Saratoga on July 28. Posted an easy win that day, and followed that up with another win in an allowance/optional claimer at Saratoga on August 26. Sent a mile in the Champagne (G1) in last, he ran hard from gate to wire and held on while under pressure to prevail. Continues to train well, and had the good luck to get a favorable post in this. (#1) Z Humor - The only entrant in here with a race over this track. That run came in the Sapling Stakes (G3) in his second lifetime start after he had broken his maiden at Saratoga on August 8. Chased "War Pass" all the way around the track in the Champagne and held well for third, losing the place late to "Pyro." Blinkers go on this Zayat-Mott runner, and with the inside draw may try and deny "War Pass" the top. Good chance from the advantageous rail draw. (# 7) Pyro - The second of the Asmussen runners, he has been beaten by "War Pass" in two consecutive races. His Champagne effort was encouraging, and he was the only runner to offer any late run as he passed "Z Humor" late to nail down the place. Son of "Pulpit" should appreciate the two-turn distance. (# 4) Slews Tiznow - Should offer his best after being sent long on Keenelands poly surface in last. Finished second that day in the Breeders Futurity (G1). Continued to train at Keeneland like most of trainer Biancones stock. Good shot for this talented runner. MONMOUTH PARK Race #SIX - FILLY AND MARES BREEDERS CUP TURF (G1) (1:55 PM Eastern) (#4) PASSAGE OF TIME - Legendary trainer Henry Cecil sends this beautifully bred daughter of "Dansilli" here after a series of races against the best of the three-year-old fillies in England and France. Has only had one sub-par run in the past two seasons, and that came in the Epsom Oaks (G1). Defeated colts at Saint Cloud in France in their most important two-year-olds race at the end of 2006. Has only had three races this year, and her best was her last, at Longchamp finishing third in the Prix Vermeille (G1). Enters this lightly raced, approaching her peak, and at a distance she should love. Up-close running style is also a big plus. (#11) Simply Perfect - Last at Newmarket a good effort off a 10-week layoff, and should set up this English miss for a top try at a distance that is well within her reach. One of two of the Europeans that is electing to have Lasix added, and the medication can work wonders on horses when they have been racing without it. Irish favorite Johnny Murtaugh winds up with the mount. (#5) Wait a While - Showed at Saratoga that she is still capable with an explosive win on August 23 in the Ballston Spa. (G2). Followed that up with a so-so try in the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont. Her positional speed is a big plus, and she may be able to get the lead entering the final turn with an early move, and try and hold off the closers late. Very lightly raced this season, and that may pay dividends here. Argentina - Nature of the race, four three-year-olds, all Europeans who have never raced here is to her advantage. Powerful finisher, should love this distance, and may get first run on the deep-closers as they hit the far turn the second time around. Danzon - Lightly raced capable runner destroyed an overmatched field on Turfways polytrack in the Kentucky Cup Distaff (G3). Ran a great race against colts on Derby Day in the Turf Classic (G1), but hasnt approached it since. The win at Turfway was off a 2 month freshening, so maybe she is on an upward swing. MONMOUTH PARK Race #SEVEN - BREEDERS CUP SPRINT (G1) (2:35 PM Eastern) (# 2) MIDNIGHT LUTE - This lightly race colt by "Real Quiet" was awesome in winning the Forego (G1) at Saratoga and he accomplished it from just off the pace in racehorse time against top runners. Has proven that he can fire fresh off the bench, and in point of fact, he appears to prefer that route. Top-notch competitor at just about any distance, and he has been working just spectacularly for his return from a seven-week layoff. If it was seven furlongs I would say you could put it in the bank, but at six he must have a good break and avoid traffic trouble. If thats the case, youll see him in the winners circle. (#7) Idiot Proof - Lightly raced three-year-old comes into this fresh and fast, just the way you would want it for a big event like this. His best race ever came over this surface on July 4 at this distance. Facts that are too good to ignore. Beat a field of fine older runners in last at Santa Anita, and he did it off a two-month layoff and on a track surface that was foreign to him. Continues his good AM work, and will be tough to beat. (#4) Talent Search - Nice effort off a seven-week layoff when he finished second in the Vosburgh (G1) at Belmont to "Fabulous Strike," who would have been one of the choices in here, but was withdrawn due to an injury. Underrated trainer in Mark Shuman who knows how to get them ready. Colt is doing well in the mornings, and is one-for-one over this track. (#1) Smokey Stover - Handy win on September 1 at this track and distance. The speed on the rail, and I would expect him to break sharply and stay on the "wood and take them as far as he can. Has proven his ability at many different venues - the sign of a good horse. Training extremely fast at his home base of Bay Meadows, hell make it impossible for someone else to steal" this. (#10) Gregs Gold - Best asset is his ability to stay close and offer some late finishing kick. Smokey and Idiot have handled him this season, but that doesnt mean that he wont show up somewhere in the super and/or tri. Training better than any of these for this. MONMOUTH PARK RACE Race #NINE - BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF (G1) (4:05 PM Eastern) (#4) GINGER PUNCH - Was caught a bit flat in last when finishing a close-up third in the Beldame (G1) at Belmont in last. Bid to the lead but never could clear, and the two Pletcher trained fillies out kicked her to the wire. The two-turn nature of this race is in her favor as I thought her best race this season was in the Go For Wand (G1) at Saratoga which came at this distance around two turns. The majority of the distance races at Belmont, due to the enormous size of the track, are around one-turn. Sharp work at Belmont for trainer Bob Frankel indicates that shes ready to offer her best, as they all should in a race of this magnitude. Good post for her stalking tactics, and with a clean trip will be tough to beat. (#10) Indian Vale - Drew a tough post for this, but she will in all probability be sent from the start anyway and will try and clear into the first turn. Long-striding mare is one of a trio entered in here for trainer Todd Pletcher. Stable-rider John Velasquez winds up here when he could have ridden "Octave," and that gives you some hint as to their ability. Has to avoid being hung up into the first turn. (#7) Lears Princess - Lightly raced and is giving away a lot of experience to almost all in here. Has proven to be a very gritty, tough competitor who loves a battle, and that is what you want in a racehorse. No doubt blinkers helped her in last when she defeated "Rags to Riches," and she did it by out-finishing her, a tough task. (#11) Unbridled Belle - Has improved as the year has progressed. Proved that shes a top animal away from Delaware Park where she has been almost unbeatable. Post is a bit of a drawback but she has proven tractable in the past. (#1) Balance - Possible that this mare was meant to run better in last at Belmont, but a disastrous start prevented her from showing her best. Has the rail, could save ground the whole race and sneak into the exotics. MONMOUTH PARK Race #ELEVEN - BREEDER'S CUP CLASSIC (G1) (5:35 PM Eastern) (# 1) LAWYER RON - Has put together one of the best seasons in recent years by any older runner. Has always had talent, and like any top animal he has reached his peak in his four-year-old season. Absolutely devastating in his pair of wins at Saratoga in the Whitney (G1) and the Woodward(G1). Anything close to either race would make him very tough in here. Lost to "Curlin" in last at Belmont around one turn, and probably would have beaten him if wound up on the outside instead of the inside. Ran well in only try here earlier this season when he was probably best. Rail draw a plus even in a small field. Will stalk about three to four lengths from the top, move up on the inside down the backstretch, and either rally on the rail or swing out if theres ample room. Good shot at the top prize. (#3) Any Given Saturday - Thought he was the best three-year-old in the country earlier this season, but he had not peaked quite yet. Best thing that Pletcher did for him was allow him some time. Returned a better animal after the Derby, and he had a devastating win here in the Haskell (G1) in early August. Easily handled "Hard Spun" and "Curlin" that day, and think hell prove that fact again today. (#4) Curlin - Continues to turn out top performances in every race. Since his troubled Derby run his only sub-par race was in the Haskell when our second pick handled him with ease. Great race last out when he bested "Lawyer Ron" in his first race in two months. Belmont was built for a horse like him, and hell need to be involded much earlier here as the nature of this surface doesnt play well for horses that are anywhere but in the first flight of runners. (#8) Hard Spun - Post draw has sealed his fate here as he will have to be sent from the gate to have any chance. Capable when he gives his best, he handled "Street Sense" with relative ease when he was able to go wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at Turfway Park. Has proved to be very tough when he reaches the top, and I think hell get it today, but maybe not as easily as hed like it. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-October-25-2007 Horse-Racing-Picks-October-24-2007 Horse-Racing-Picks-October-23-2007 Horse-Racing-Picks-October-22-2007 Horse-Racing-Picks-October-21-2007 |
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