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Triple Crown Horse Racing - October 25, 2008

Welcome to the second day of the 2008 "Breeder's Cup". The races today are all very competitive so it would be a good idea to spread your action around a bit by making exacta boxes of the selections. Races are spread well apart, and if you are making a day of it, the odds will be readily available before each race. Use them in helping you decide what bet to make. Good Luck and enjoy racing's biggest day.

A reminder that we're starting our Saturday coverage with Race #3.

Today's Horse Racing Picks:

SANTA ANITA Race #3 (THE BREEDER'S CUP DIRT MILE) at 2:30 PM Eastern

Top pick: #1 (LEWIS MICHAEL) - Highly thought of by his connections, the high octane duo of owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Wayne Catalano. He's had in effect two careers, one before his polytrack days and the one since. He was a solid runner earlier in his career, but has really blossomed with the shift to artificial surfaces. Won a 7-furlong race at Del Mar in his 2nd start in a year and they've been pointing him for this since. Working sharply and draws the rail. The choice at a square price in a great betting race.
2nd pick: #7 (Albertus Maximus) - Solid runner is coming off his two best ever and they came off a two month break in his training. Under-rated barn (Vlad Cerin) knows how to win big races and this colt will be making his third start off the freshening (often a horse's best). Working "lights out" in the past 3 weeks and he has already run a very good race on this surface. Dangerous foe.
3rd pick: #8 (Well Armed) - World traveler has raced in England, the mid-East, and now the West Coast. Tracked a fast pace in the "Goodwood" and proved best with a game score. That win makes him one of only two entered with a win on this relatively new surface. Tractable style and has proven that he loves "synthetics" (8-5-2-0). Very dangerous.
4th pick: #4 (Mast Track) - Tired in the "Goodwood" on this surface after contesting a very fast pace from a poor post (10). In the capable barn of Bob Frankel, he'll be going third off a layoff and is a strong front-end threat.
5th pick: #2 (Surf Cat) - Millionaire has spent his entire carer in So.California. He's had a solid year (8-2-2-2) and has a nice race on this new "Pro-Ride" surface on Sep 27th. Working sharply and can factor on his best.

SANTA ANITA Race #4 (THE BREEDER'S CUP MILE (TURF)) at 3:15 PM Eastern
Top pick: #2 (KIP DEVILLE) - The defending champ in this race has been very lightly raced this season. His connections (Richard Dutrow) have had this race in mind all year and veteran has really stepped up in his training in New York before shipping west. He's 2 for 2 on this course and believe that he was just short (maybe by design) in his last at Woodbine. Can make it two in a row in this "Mile".
2nd pick: #4 (Goldikova) - Very talented filly will tackle colts and geldings today, but she did just that before leaving France in the prestigious "Prix du Moulin Rouge" (G1) at Longchamp and emerged victorious. Great connections (trainer Freddie Head and jockey Oliver Peslier) could have run her against her own sex, but have chosen this route. European Time-Form rankings are some of the best I've seen. Almost put her on top.
3rd pick: #7 (U S Ranger) - Veteran sprinter/middle distance runner has kept top company his entire career, in England, Ireland, and France. Top connections (Aidan O'Brien and Johnny Murtaugh) bring this son of the legendary "Danzig" into this in top shape and with lasix administered for the first time. He could sneak away at a square price.
4th pick: #5 (Daytona) - May have been a "tad" short in the "Del Mar Mile" in late August, as he hadn't raced in two months. Has been carefully brought along for this and his good speed is a big asset on this course, as his undefeated record (3 for 3) on it attests.

SANTA ANITA Race #5 (THE BREEDER'S CUP JUVENILE) at 3:55 PM Eastern
Top pick: #4 (SQUARE EDDIE) - Proved before coming here from England that he could handle an artificial surface as he just missed in a Grade 3 stake at historic Kempton Park. Shipped here and into the barn of Doug O'Neill, he was given lasix for the first time and promptly won the (G1)"Breeder's Futurity" at Keeneland in easy fashion. Race was also his first over a distance of ground and he comes into this with a fine maintenance work. A repeat of his last will make him very tough.
2nd pick: #6 (Silent Valor) - One of a pair from the barn of Mr. Todd Pltecher and they'll race as separate interests. Talented son of "Lion Hearted" was shipped here for the "Norfolk" (G1) and ran very well in his first on this surface and first over a distance. Raced wide while close-up and flattened out a bit in the last furlong. Runs much better today and at a square price.
3rd pick: #11 (Midshipman) - Ran a big race in the "Norfolk" (G1) stakes on this course October 4th. tracked from mid-pack, rallied while four wide and was outfinished by today's rival "Street Hero". Has a pair of "superior" six-furlong works since that race and he's in the barn of the more than capable Mr. Bob Baffert.
4th pick: #1 (Munnings) - The "other" Pletcher runner. Colt cost a cool $1,700,000 at auction earlier this year and won his debut like he has a real future. He's run fine races in his first pair against winners and they both in G1 stakes. Training fast leading up to this and he has the rail advantage. Stable rider John Velazquez winds up here. Win contender.
5th pick: #8 (Street Hero) - Competitive runner won the G1 "Norfolk" on this course but only has one slow breeze since that Sep 28th victory. Contender for the minor awards, but a win could be out of his reach due to the lack of recent activity.

SANTA ANITA Race #6 (THE BREEDER'S CUP JUVENILE TURF) at 4:35 PM Eastern
Top pick: #3 (WESTPHALIA) - Irish-bred's only "poor" outing came on very "heavy" going on August 23rd at the "Curragh" in the G2 "Futurity". Record in his other five races is excellent (5-3-2-0) including a victory in his latest, which came in the G2 "Champagne Stakes" at Doncaster in England. Another son of top sire, "Danehill Dancer" is owned by Michael Tabor and trained by Aidan O'Brien. Transfer of his form makes him the horse to beat.
2nd pick: #4 (Donativum) - Another import from overseas has improved his game considerably since coming back from a late spring layoff. He broke his maiden at Yarmouth and then "upset" a $1,775,000 field of 24 at Newmarket in the "Tattersalls Timeform Million". Trained by a good one (John Gosden) and Luigi Dettori climbs aboard for the first time. Good price is expected.
3rd pick: #10 (Skipadate) - Son of "Skip Away" broke his maiden first time out of the gate going long on the Saratoga turf. He's been narrowly defeated in his next pair, both stakes losing by a "head" in each. In a great and often over-looked barn (Mark Casse), veteran trainer will add blinkers for this attempt, an impressive 28% move by the conditioner.
4th pick: #11 (Bittel Road) - Double stakes winner on the turf from the barn of Todd Pletcher. Undefeated in his three starts, all on the grass. Sign of quality as he has already won going short and long and also done so from on and off the pace. Narrowly defeated "Skipadate" at Saratoga in a stakes.
5th pick: #7 (Coronet of a Baron) - He's from a top outfit (Darley Stable) and in a crafty barn (Eoin Harty). Impressed in his three starts on "poly," one at Arlington and the other pair at Del Mar. Could have run in the Juvenile Dirt race but his connections have decided to give it a go on the grass. Contender if he takes to the new footing.

SANTA ANITA Race #7 (THE BREEDER'S CUP SPRINT) at 5:15 PM Eastern
Top pick: #2 (STREET BOSS) - Enters carefully prepared and set-up nicely by veteran trainer Bruce Headley. Son of "Street Cry" has had a great year (8-6-2-0) and is the only entrant to have spent his entire career on synthetic surfaces. Nice to see him have a race on this "Pro-Ride", and a strong one at that. Makes his 2nd start off a two month layoff and he is working like a horse who is ready to give 110%. The rail horse is a front-runner, so that should allow this stalker a comfortable trip. The choice for the win.
2nd pick: #3 (Fabulous Strike) - Fast and game, he ran a very strong race last out at Belmont in the "Vosburgh(G1), only his 2nd start in the past year. Multiple sprint stakes winner has raced well at a variety of tracks in his career and he'll be making his first start on an artificial track today. Gelding has trained in fast fashion both at Presque Iasle (a synthetic surface in Western Pennsylvania), and more recently a nice spin over the local main-track. If he gets beat it won't be from the lack of effort (which he gives 100% of every time he runs).
3rd pick: #4 (Midnight Lute) - Easy winner of this race last year on a "sloppy" main track at Monmouth in a very impressive performance. He's battled some breathing problems through-out his career and earlier this year under-went a minor throat operation to clear his passage-ways. He's apparently over that difficulty as his works on this course in the past month are nothing less that sensational. If he brings his best he could run away with this late. Must use in your exotics wagering.
4th pick: #6 (Black Seventeen) - Lightly raced and very game. Hung a loss on "Fabulous Strike" last out after shipping cross-country to Belmont. His only sub-par race this year came at Saratoga when he tired a bit in the "Vanderbilt"(G2). Versatile as to style, he draws a nice post to stalk from and his work on this surface Oct. 12 was really eye-popping.

SANTA ANITA Race #8 (THE BREEDER'S CUP TURF) at 6:05 PM Eastern
Top pick: #4 (SOLDIER OF FORTUNE) - Son of the great "Galileo" has banked just over 2.5 million in a carefully managed and very successful career (12-6-3-1)in France, England, and Ireland. Lightly raced this season, his most recent appearance saw him finish a close-up 3rd in the "Arc de l' Triomphe" at Longchamp, Europe's richest race ($5,522,000) and arguably it's most important. Winner that day is the remarkably talented "Zarkava". Well-prepared and set-up nicely by Aidan O'Brien, he is world-class on all levels and if he brings his best, he'll wind up in the winner's circle.
2nd pick: #3 (Grand Couturier) - Veteran has hit another gear at age 5, as his latest pair not only were visually impressive but they were two of his best starts ever. That pair of stakes wins, the "Sword Dancer"(G1) at Saratoga, and the "Turf Classic"(G1) at Belmont were also both at this demanding 1 1/2 mile distance. He's never raced outside of the east-coast since coming here from Europe, but his record at this trip (8-5-0-1) indicates that it should not pose a problem.
3rd pick: #9 (Conduit) - Three-year-old comes into this with an impressive resume for a lightly raced runner. Irish-bred, but English raced, he just missed at Ascot on June 20th in the prestigious "King George"(G2) and most recently won one of Europe's oldest and most important stakes, The $897,000 "Doncaster St. Leger" . Colt appears to relish longer distances and if he brings his best with him he could wind up winning this. Trainer (Sir Michael Stoute) knows a "thing or two" about winning big races.
4th pick: #11 (Eagle Mountain) - World-class son of "Rock of Gibraltar" has kept the best company his whole career in his native Europe. Obviously pointed for this as he's only had one start this year, a recent victory at Newmarket in a $100,000 (G3) over a field of 15. Trained by South African Mike de Kock, if colt can secure some early position from his outside post he could be a strong factor.
5th pick: #5 (Winchester) - One of a pair of 3yr.olds signed on for this test. Looked good in his first start in the U.S. defeating a below average group assembled for the "Secretariat"(G1) at Arlington in early August. Lightly raced son of the legendary "Theatrical" had both blinkers and lasix added that day by one of the best trainer's in the business (Dermot Weld). He's done little work since and would need a career best to win this. Could hit the tri and or super at a square price.

SANTA ANITA Race #9 (THE BREEDER'S CUP CLASSIC) at 6:45 PM Eastern
Top pick: #4 (DUKE OF MARMALADE) - One of a pair from entered by Aidan O'Brien and they'll race as separate interests. This son of "Danehill" has earned over 2.5 million and this season is 5 for 6, all in Grade 1 events. Only "out of the money" finish came in the recent "Arc" when he had a very wide trip and finished a close up 7th. He's never run on anything but turf and it's always a gamble whether they'll take to a new surface, but the same can be said for "Curlin" and several of the others. Colt brings a nice stalking style to the contest and the pace here should be more of relaxed variety, much more like a grass race. Can win this if he runs his "A" race.
2nd pick: #9 (Curlin) - Not much else can be said. In less than two years he's become North America'a all-time leading money earner. Has proven a versatile and durable runner and it's a testament to his owner and trainer that they're running him with seemingly "a lot to lose" if he does so. Recent "public" work on this surface was impressive and trainer Steve Asmusen could have backed off with grace, but he must have really liked what he saw. If this race was on a conventional dirt surface, he would destroy the American runner's entered, with only the top pick a threat. Champ if 6 for 7 at this distance on dirt with his only "loss" a 3rd place finish in the "07" Derby, when he was still learning. Hard not to "root" for him as I've always considered him something special. Defending champ in this race could really put a "stamp" on a remarkable career with a win.
3rd pick: #3 (Tiago) - Late runner has really taken to the synthetic surfaces (8-2-3-1) all of which have come in Graded stakes competition. He's the only horse entered with a race on this "Pro-Ride" surface, and it was a strong 2nd place finish in the "Goodwod"(G1) on Sep 27th. Capable of stalking from mid-pack or coming from far-back, he's training in fast and steady fashion. Don't ignore.
4th pick: #1 (Go Between) - Synthetic specialist (6-3-3-0), he's had quite a career (26-8-7-6), with close to $3,000,000 in earnings. In the capable hands of "Hall of Famer" Bill Mott, he draws the rail and will need something like a fast/contested pace to make his one-run count. Exotics threat and if things break right maybe more.
5th pick: #5 (Henrythenavigator) - From the same barn as the "Duke", son of "Kingmambo" is pretty accomplished in his own rite (10-6-2-1) and 1.3 million in earnings. Runs with a similar style as the top pick and it's interesting to see John Velazquez wind up on this European who will run with lasix for the first time. He's never run further than a mile in his career.

Horse Racing Picks Resources:


Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters:

Horse-Racing-Picks-October-24-2008
SANTA ANITA Race #3 (FILLY AND MARE SPRINT) at 3:35 PM EasternTop pick: #5 (INDIAN BLESSING) - Champion two-year-old filly from '07 has developed into a nice runner at three-years-old, which is not al...

Horse-Racing-Picks-October-23-2008
BELMONT PARK Race #2 at 1:30 PM EasternTop pick: #1 (SO MUCH TROUBLE) - Makes her first start since mid-May when she couldn't keep pace on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Winner won by 13 lengths a...

Horse-Racing-Picks-October-22-2008
BELMONT PARK Race #4 at 2:30 PM EasternTop pick: #3 (WINTHROP HOUSE) - Working well for his first race since early August. Showed enough in his first pair to think that he could take this off the rest...

Horse-Racing-Picks-October-21-2008
DELAWARE PARK Race #1 at 12:45 PM EasternTop pick: #5 (MEAN SALLY) - Drops way down and switches surfaces. This field is very weak and a low-percentage barn reaches out to jockey Ramon Dominguez. The ...

Horse-Racing-Picks-October-20-2008
DELAWARE PARK Race #2 at 1:10 PM EasternTop pick: #5 (THE UNCLEAN SPIRIT) - California shipper brings the best overall form and in his last at Fairplex he just missed on real dirt. Has a drill on the ...

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