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Handicapping The Kentucky Derby - November 29, 2008Nice performance yesterday by "Einstein" in the "Clark" H. (G2) at Churchill Downs. He stayed close to heavy favorite "Commentator" throuh the early part of the race, rallied on the far turn and drew away handily. He's found the dirt to his liking late in life, as he was a G1 stakes winners on the turf earlier in his career. Nice card at Aqueduct today with, the G1 "Cigar" and a pair of traditional two-year-old features the "Remsen" and the "Demoiselle" both G2 events. Those two stakes in previous years have been stepping stones to bigger and better things by many of their winners. Today our Newsletter has five contests - two each from Aqueduct and Hollywod Park, and a single contest from the Fair Grounds. Today's Best Bet is #5 Concerto's Thunder in Race #1 at Hollywood Park. Friday's Results: Santa Anita Race #3 Best Bet #5 (SATELLITE) $5.00.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #2 (AIN'T LOVE GRAND) - Improving filly has a solid chance at upestting the heavy favorite in here, #5 Sky Diva. Daughter of "Dixie Union" had a smashing win on October 5, at Belmont breaking her maiden by 11 lengths in an off the turf event. Training in fast fashion on this her home track she may try and win this in the first two furlongs by opening up some daylight on the "chalk." 2nd pick: #5 (Sky Diva) - Obvious selection and probable heavy favorite will be returning from a fine third-place finish in the "Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies" (G1) at Santa Anita. Working well at trainer (Steve Klesaris's) home-base of Fair Hill in Maryland, she'll be very tough to hold off. 3rd pick: #6 (Bluegrass Princess) - Daughter of "Dynaformer" is improving quickly at this point and will be trying a distance on the dirt for the first time. Sharp work on the Nov. 24, and she's a late threat. HOLLYWOOD PARK Race #1 at 3:30 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (CONCERTO'S THUNDER) - Colt will be taking that all-important drop into a claimer for the first time. Competitive in most of his starts at the maiden-special level, he has both speed/stalking ability to utilize. Drop in class should do the trick. 2nd pick: #8 (Tempting Charm) - Debut was solid as he chased a very fast pace and held well until the last 1/8th. Also drops into a claimer for a trainer Brian Koriner who is good second time out (25%). 3rd pick: #3 (Whiskey Bent) - Shortens-up and drops into a claimer for his third-lifetime start. Should offer his best in this situation. 4th pick: #1 (Voodoo's Run) - He'll try a synthetic surface for the first time today. Competitive on conventional dirt and turf, he draws the rail and has a nice stalking style. FAIR GROUNDS Race #7 at 4:05 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (MY BOY COY) - Makes his second start for the high-energy Cody Autry barn. Had trouble at the start in that maiden-special, so the effort is best "tossed." Sharp work since and he'll drop into a claimer today. 2nd pick: #1 (Ax Me Nice) - Pressed the pace in his only outing, which was at Delaware Park against $50K foes. Barn (Doug O'Neill) is good second time out and they enlist P. Val for this contest. 3rd pick: #4 (Metro Man) - Debut runner by a fine win-early sire, "City Zip". In an excellent barn (Bret Calhoun) and colt has a trio of fast five-furlong drills on this surface. 4th pick: #10 (Lord of Thunder) - Makes his first appearance here after finishing second last out in Chicago at this level. That was his first effort on conventional dirt and he enters this racing-fit over many of his rivals. Runner is in a sharp barn (Mike Stidham). AQUEDUCT Race #9 at 4:15 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (RADICAL SABBITICAL) - Lightly raced and improving, he just failed to last on October 31, on this course in his first try at this level. Reached the front in that one, but was outfinished late by a much more experienced rival. The horse to beat. 2nd pick: #8 (North Country) - Had a very troubled trip in the same race where the top pick just missed. Raced in tight quarters and was forced to steady late. Makes his third start off a seven-week break and he's a win contender with a "clear" journey. 3rd pick: #5 (Moon Ala Mode) - Likes this course (two for three) and he set a fast pace after having to be sent hard from the 11 post last out. Stayed on until mid-stretch where he tired from his early efforts. Threat on the front-end. 4th pick: #3 (My Man Lars) - Veteran has been competitive in his last four, with three of them coming in stakes. The nine-furlong distance is fine and he should be running just off the top. Needs to finish a bit stronger. 5th pick: #1 (Stormy Mirage) - Don't believe he can win, but he's a possible price play from his rail post. Can hit the tri and or super. HOLLYWOOD PARK Race #6 at 6:00 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (MOONLIGHT TIZZY) - "Legged-up" in a turf sprint last out in her first back from a 2 1/2 month layoff. Chased the pace in that one and had serious traffic issues when the race was on the line. Blinkers are added and veteran trainer Art Sherman brings her back quickly (16 days) for this. 2nd pick: #7 (I'mforeal) - Probable race favorite just failed to hold on on November 1. Filly's race was on this surface and she's come back and worked three times since. Very tough to beat. 3rd pick: #6 (Yodelady O) - Finished less than a length behind "Imforeal" last out after tracking the pace and rallying late. She's also drilled fast since, but she's inside of her main rivals and will have to be sent hard. 4th pick: #4 (Chobe Chika) - Firster by "Forest Camp" has benn working steadily for some time for a trainer (Ron McAnally) who normally doesn't have them "cranked-up" first time out. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-November-28-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-27-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-26-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-25-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-24-2008 |
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