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Handicapping Horse Racing - November 25, 2008A reminder that on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, we will be publishing our Racing Newsletter. Post Time at Aqueduct on the Holiday will be 11:30 a.m. EST. The Fair Grounds and Hollywood will also have holiday cards. We'll have the usual five races on that day and will not have any that will be run before 2:30 pm. EST. Today we have five contests, two from Philadelphia Park and a trio from Turf Paradise. Today's Best Bet is #1 Barefoot Baby in Race #7 at Philadelphia Park. Monday's Results: Philadelphia Park Race #4 Ex. box (5-4) $43.60.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #7 (JOY TO RUN) - Lightly-raced daughter of "Stephen Got Even" recently returned from a three-month layoff for the high percentage Jayne Vader's barn. She's finished third in both of her return runs, one each at Delaware Park and the Meadowlands. This is her favorite surface (7-2-2-1) and she's primed for a big try. 2nd pick: #9 (Lisa's Night Out) - Very fast filly tired at Laurel facing better on October 30, her first race since June 23. Drops down for this second off the bench and she's a big wire-to-wire threat. 3rd pick: #10 (Shoot the Burglar) - Consistent runner has had a good season (10-1-4-2) and almost all of the starts have come sprinting at this tag. Draws a nice post, and this 6.5 furlong distance fits her stalking style. PHILADELPHIA PARK Race #7 at 2:55 PM Eastern Top pick: #1 (BAREFOOT BABY) - Consistent runner (15-4-2-3) was claimed out of a win last out by veteran trainer Kate DeMasi. Filly is fresh, draws a great inside post, and does her best work from a stalking position. She likes the distance (6-3-2-0) and is two for three on this surface. New trainer is a solid 18% first off the buy. 2nd pick: #10 (Tease) - Reclaimed last out by trainer Keith Lebarron from the high-percentage Michael Gill operation. A real horse for the course (16-3-4-3) and she seemed a "tad" short last out, her first race in seven weeks. 3rd pick: #8 (Grand Prize) - Another who was claimed last out from a winning race. Very consistent filly (15-4-1-6), likes this surface (7-2-1-2), and may get a fast pace set-up that will help her cause. 4th pick: #2 (My Manhattan) - Speedy filly will no doubt be sent hard from the get-go. Needs a patient ride as there is other speed signed on and she'll need to avoid any kind of pace battle. "Off" track would help her style out. TURF PARADISE Race #4 at 3:55 PM Eastern Top pick: #4 (R.BEAU) - Fast, in shape, and relatively lightly raced. In a high percentage barn (Mike Chambers 39% on the year) and can make her turf debut a winning one. 2nd pick: #1 (Runnin' the River) - Fast filly will make her first start off a recent claim by the powerful Justin Evans operation. Has a win on this course and she's been a remarkably consistent runner her whole career (57-12-14-5). Evans wins at a hig 30% with his fresh claims. 3rd pick: #3 (Hot off the Bench) - Prolific winner (7 for 31) has never raced on the grass, but has a nice stalking gear on the dirt and is coming off a very sharp win on October 28. She has a solid work since and is a win candidate. 4th pick: #2 (Pem Bro) - Filly has one of the field's best turf records (12-3-3-1) and is coming off a fine second-place finish on this course on October 15. That was her first race in seven months and she could be "tighter" in this second off the bench situation. TURF PARADISE Race #6 at 4:50 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (FRECKLE'S O'BRIEN) - Latest was a fine effort in her first at this $5K tag and first off a two-month layoff. Rallied late in a sprint that day to finish fourth in a race that has produced several next out winners. The choice to break her maiden. 2nd pick: #6 (Wildwomen N Wine) - Rallied late last out to finish a very distant third at this tag and distance. Speed here could comeback late and that would aid her cause. 3rd pick: #7 (Romancin Reno) - Lightly raced filly will try a distance today in her second start back off a 3 1/2 month freshening. Trainer (Matt Williams) is solid and filly could easily take to the extra yardage. 4th pick: #10 (Grandma Jean) - Finished second last out in her first start on this surface after coming here from the California Fair circuit. Draws a "tough" post today and may be overbet a bit. Needs to work out a trip. 5th pick: #4 (Charming You) - Sharp barn (Dan McFarlane) sends filly a distance in her second start back off a half-years absence. Had some problems at the break in her return and it hindered her performance. Filly was getting the hang of things last Spring when she went on the shelf. TURF PARADISE Race #9 at 6:15 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (LOWER BUCKEYE) - Drops off a debut that saw her break slowly, rush up into a fast pace, and tire in the last furlong. Price reduction and the first race experience should land her in the winner's circle. 2nd pick: #9 (Put Me Under) - Daughter of "Benton Creek" looks like she's coming around a bit and is being raced into shape. Could impact this at a big price. 3rd pick: #10 (Barricadesituation) - High-octane barn (Mike Chambers) takes over the training of this filly by the fine Arizona sire, "Barricade". New stock to this barn wins at a 32% rate. Filly has had legitimate excuses in her last pair. 4th pick: #3 (Timeless Style) - Filly just missed in her debut on Oct. 10, showing good speed and fighting spirit. Regressed in start number two, coming back in 15 days as a heavy favorite. Filly's been given exactly a month since that effort and she's worked twice in the last 12 days. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-November-24-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-23-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-22-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-21-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-20-2008 |
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