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Free Horse Racing Handicapping - November 16, 2008Rain was the order of the day on Saturday with "off" tracks just about everywhere east of Chicago and extending as far south as New Orleans. Aqueduct, the Fair Grounds, and Churchill Downs all lost most of their turf races for the second straight day, and in Aqueduct's case, for it's third day in a row. Today, we have one race from the Fair Grounds and two races each from Hollywod Park and Aqueduct. One of the races we have selected today (Aqueduct #8) is scheduled for the grass, but it's unlikely that it will be run on that surface. Selections and analysis listed is for the MAIN-TRACK, with alternate selections for the turf underneath in the special race notes" section. Today's Best Bet is #2 Thankfully in Race #3 at Hollywood Park. Saturday's Results: Hollywood Park Race #2 Ex. (1-7) $119.60. Fair Grounds Race #6 Top Pick #1 (Uno Mas) $4.20.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #1 (BURROWING OWL) - Claimed by trainer Cody Autry this past August, he immediately sent the veteran runner in for a long rest. Trainer annually is a major force here and he won a pair on opening day. Gelding loves this course and he's been training well for his comeback. 2nd pick: #2 (Carson the Great) - Faces open foes after winning his last pair and running out of conditions. In the best shape of his life at present, and if he repeats either of his recent wins, he'll be a handful. 3rd pick: #6 (Tiger Bait) - He's won four of 12 career starts, a very lite resume for a five-year-old. He has a lot of breaks in his running lines, but he has fired fresh off the bench in the past. AQUEDUCT Race #7 at 3:15 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (AQUINO) - Tired last out in the G3 "SportPage" Hdcp after contesting the pace from a wide post. Race was his first in two months, coming after a nice win at Saratoga. Colt had worked sharply leading up to his comeback and he is a threat on the top end. 2nd pick: #2 (Try to Fly) - Highly thought of early in his career, he won the "San Pedro" at Santa Anita and placed in several others. He's had several long gaps in his training, but appears to be over whatever ailed him as he's had a solid year (6-1-5-0) and is stringing starts together. Nice work leading into this. 3rd pick: #1a (Diamond Isle) - He's only had two starts since November of last year, and today he'll be putting back-to-back races together for the first time since then. Stalker draws a nice post and the pace could be fast. Good shot at a square price. 4th pick: #4 (Fearless Vision) - Lost a three-horse photo in the "Peter Pan" (G2) in 2007 and did not race again for 14 months. He's been sharp in three of five starts this year and should receive a solid pace to track. AQUEDUCT Race #8 at 3:40 PM Eastern Top pick: #13 (FUJITA) - Talented and lightly-raced runner from trainer Todd Pletcher, finished a close-up third in the "Derby Trial" stakes at Churchill last May. Stretches back out after a trio of sprint stakes and this stalker should receive a lively pace to rally into. 2nd pick: #9 (Z Humor) - He's kept only the best of company since breaking his maiden last year at Saratoga. Only stakes win came in a big one, The "Delta Downs Jackpot" in Louisiana in his final start of '07. He's "nibbled" in some big events this season, and recently returned from a three-month freshening. Win contender. 3rd pick: #11 (Pluracity) - Very fast runner owns a pair of impressive wins last winter at this one-turn mile distance at Gulfstream Park. Tired badly last out at the Meadowlands in the G3 "Pegasus," his overall resume a strong one (17-6-2-5). Tough if he clears the field early. 4th pick: #12 (National Pride) - Tired last out on a very deep, muddy track here on October 29. Scored in his previous start at Belmont at this distance in the best effort of his young career. Talent runner should rebound today with a much stronger effort. Special Race Notes: In the event that this race remains on the grass, the selections are: #7-Atwell #5-Golden Weekend #8-Expansion #2- Different Drummer HOLLYWOOD PARK Race #3 at 4:30 PM Eastern Top pick: #2 (THANKFULLY) - Filly's training was recently taken over by Art Sherman, and she responded with the best race of her career. Stalked a fast pace running for $50K on Santa Anita's "pro-ride" surface and held well late to finish third. She's working very fast on this "cushion-track" and think she'll win this wire-to-wire. 2nd pick: #3 (Holladay Dixie) - Beaten a "neck" by the top pick last out and that was her first race in two months. Daughter of "Dixie Union" has raced well against better in the past and is a runner to fear. 3rd pick: #6 (Risk Addiction) - Quick filly is coming off a six-month layoff and will run in a claimer for the first time, She's close to being five-years-old and obviously has some problems, but may fire her best given the long rest. 4th pick: #5 (Dice Affair) - Four-year-old ran well in her first pair, but regressed in her latest in late July which necessitated a layoff until today. Filly has a very quick work cross-town at Santa Anita on Nov 12, and could be on edge. HOLLYWOOD PARK Race #9 at 7:35 PM Eastern Top pick: #3 (SMOKEY BEAU) - Returns from a four-month layoff for the John Sadler barn. Son of "Smoke Glacken" ran well last out at Del mar racing for a $100K tag. Working steadily and much better than average for his return, he's the choice for the win. 2nd pick: #2 (Uncle Jeep) - Claimed last out by Mike Mitchell and that's always something of note, as he wins at 32% first off the buy. He's race well in two of four and is a late threat to win this. 3rd pick: #1 (Loyal Son) - Son of "Doneraille Court" ran strongly in his second start against MSW foes last June on this surface. Well-bet that day, trainer Richard Matlow has given him 4 1/2 months off and he's training fast on this surface for his return. Draws the rail which has been good at this meet. 4th pick: #7 (Topanga Love) - Chased a fast pace in his Santa Anita debut and finished evenly for trainer Eddie Truman. Barn had a similar-looking runner win here yesterday in the 7th race. Don't sell too short. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-November-15-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-14-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-13-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-12-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-November-11-2008 |
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