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Handicapping Preakness - March 21, 2010Nice performance by the Nick Zito trained "Ice Box" in rallying from far back to take yesterday's running of the $750,000 Florida Derby (G1). The colt will run back in the Kentucky Derby on May 1 off a six week layoff. There is an interesting situation at Gulfstream today as over half of the 118 horses entered on the card will have to be scratched as they are stabled at Calder where the stabling area has been placed under quarantine after a horse had to be euthanized after showing signs of a neurological disorder. It's only a precautionary measure, but the results of the autopsy won't be known until Monday, so all those scheduled to race today will not be able to ship to Gulfstream. One or more of the races may have to be cancelled. Today's newsletter has a three-spot from Aqueduct and one from Turfway Park. Today's Best Bet is #4 Air Lord in Race #5 at Aqueduct. Saturday's Results: Aqueduct Race #4 Top Pick #1 (Ichabad Crane) $3.50. Gulfstream Park Race #10 Best Bet #7 (D'Funnybone) $3.00.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #6 (BASE COMMANDER) - Ultra-consistent speed/stalker defeated tougher last Dec. and has been competitive all winter long. Claimed two back by Enrique Arroyo from the Pletcher barn, he finished a solid second facing tougher in his first for the new connections. Drops under the purchase price and he's the horse to beat. 2nd pick: #4 (Super Shape) - Very fast, drops, and races second back off three month layoff. He's beaten better in the past and has never raced this low before. Win candidate. 3rd pick: #1 (Fujita) - He was considere "Derby" material two years ago, but he's han many serious physical problems and this will be only his third start in the past 13 months. Drops off a much needed "tightener" facing tougher and should offer whatever he has left in this spoot. 4th pick: #3 (Mitchell Park) - Has the rail and has been competitive at this price in the past. Dominguez climbs aboard for the first time. AQUEDUCT Race #5 at 2:55 PM Eastern Top pick: #4 (AIR LORD) - Drops off a solid second place finish vs. tougher in his second off a Mike Maker claim. Former stakes performer is much the horse to beat with anything near his latest effort. 2nd pick: #6 (J J's Prophet) - The main speed he finished a strong second last out after setting the pace until the last 1/16th. Effort was his best since coming-back from an eight-month layoff and he's a threat to the "Lord". 3rd pick: #3 (Admiralty) - Stretches-out off a series of even efforts sprinting. He's won at this distance in the past and could impact the exotics at a big price. 4th pick: #9 (Hard Iron) - Deep closer lost all chance last out when he was forced to "check" at the start. Previous effort saw him miss by a "neck" at this level and distance. Stretch threat. TURFWAY PARK Race #5 at 3:00 PM Eastern Top pick: #7 (TOP VALUE) - Daughter of "Mineshaft" is from a first class operation (owner Will Farish and trainer Neil Howard) and filly rallied from the clouds to finish second in her debut sprinting here on Feb. 28. She's worked twice at Keeneland since and is the horse to beat. 2nd pick: #6 (Talkin and Singin) - Stretch-out sprinter stalked, bid, and flattened last out and finished three lengths off of the top selection. It should be noted that filly was many lengths in front of her most of the race and should be for most, if not all of this one. The likely winner if the top pick fails. 3rd pick: #1 (Flashy's Song) - Debuting daughter of "Songandaprayer" is in a hot barn (Charlie Lopresti) and she's been working sharply at Keeneland for her first start. Contender from the rail. 4th pick: #2 (Elusive Light) - Nicely-bred filly ("Elusive Quality") hasn't started since late Dececember when she finished fifth of seven at this level in a race at the Fair Grounds. Working nicely there before shipping and she's an exotics factor. AQUEDUCT Race #6 at 3:25 PM Eastern Top pick: #2 (LEATHERHEAD) - Strong finisher has rallied to finish close-up in his last two starts and this race has the look of many trying for the top with a fast/contested pace a distinct possibility. Can win this one late. 2nd pick: #4 (Abilio) - He hasn't raced since his debut at Belmont last fall when he flashed some speed and tired. In a great layoff barn (Linda Rice) and colt has some sharp drills showing. Contender. 3rd pick: #5 (Chingachook) - Debuts for a good trainer (H. Graham Motion) and with Dominguez aboard. Son of "Empire Maker" has steady drills and a good gate move on March 4. 4th pick: #9 (Spicy Steve) - Has some speed and a very nice recent workout. Can contend if he avoids a wide trip. 5th pick: #1a (Eli's Comin) - Also has some speed and also has a wide post. Lightly raced and improving, he's coupled in the betting with Big Gavel. Horse Racing Picks Resources: Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-March-20-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-March-19-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-March-18-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-March-17-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-March-16-2010 |
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