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Us Horse Racing Picks - June 07, 2008It's a very exciting day in the sport of Thoroughbred Racing as "Big Brown" tries to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in the history of the sport. Having been in attendance at the crowning of "Secretariat", "Seattle Slew", and "Affirmed" I can assure you that's it's amongst the most exciting moments in all of sports. There are nine opponents that would all like to derail "Brown's" bid, and also the question of the 1 1/2 mile distance. He's by far the best horse on paper, but to quote Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens, "They don't run the race on paper, they run it on the race-track. We have had success in the first two legs of the Triple Crown as we tabbed “Big Brown” to win the Kentucky Derby - a $6.80 win on a $2 bet. We also had him pegged in the Preakness en route to a nice 1-2 exacta grabbing $36.60 also on a $2 bet. We've decided at the last minute to put up five other races along with the Belmont itself for analysis. Enjoy the day and all the excitement involved with it. The Belmont card will be covered by ESPN beginning at noon (EST) and will switch to ABC at 5:00 pm (EST), with Belmont race #11 on a 13 race card. Post time is 6:25 pm (EST).Today’s Best Bet is #8 Smart Enuf in Race #3 at Belmont Park Friday's Results: Belmont Race #2 Top pick winner (Original scratched) # 9 Main Street $3.40. Belmont Race #3 Top Pick Winner #5 (Goretty) $2.80. Belmont Park Race #5 original top pick scratched. Exacta box (5-4) $44.00. Today's Horse Racing Picks: (# 7) COMMANDERED - Talented three-year-old had some problems in his latest, which came in a stakes at Pimlico on Preakness day. Race was his first against winners and he had traffic issues around the far turn. Recovered well and finished with interest. Fourth place finisher ("Indy Joe") won the "Rumson" stakes at Monmouth next out. Winner("Lantana Mob") could turn out to be one of the best sprinters around. (#'s 1 and 1a) Desert Key and Forest of Dreams - when they were entered. We'll take either one as our second choice. Both are lightly raced and improving dramatically at this stage. They continue to work fast in the morning and are legitimate win threats. (# 11) Accredit - Hard-hitter tries every time and he continues to train forwardly for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Capable stalking gear and draws a good post to do it from. (# 2) Basha's Moon - Hails from a very sharp ship-in barn in Mike Trombetta. Lightly raced and gives away a ton of experience. Improved quite a bit in his second start and he draws the rail. Interesting long shot. Belmont Park Race #THREE (1:00 PM Eastern) (# 8) Smart Enuf - Strong turf debut two back at Aqueduct, setting/pressing the pace and staying on well the whole race to finish second in a very good effort. Raced in an "off the turf" event next out and again pressed the pace for all nine furlongs and finished third in a "blanket" finish. There's little other speed on view and would expect him to try and take full advantage of edge. (# 4) Piazza Di Spagna - Consistent late-on-the-scene type, he's had serious traffic issues in his last pair just when it seemed like he was nearing his peak. Fits well here and the bigger turns and 1 1/8th mile distance are made for his style. (# 3) Imperial Way - Interesting play at a price in the exotics. Chased the pace in an "off the turf" contest last out before tiring late. Gets to try the infield today and Gomez's presence is curious. Gelding has "grass" written all over his breeding. (# 5) Seeking No More - Started his career in a very good barn (Mike Hushion). Showed some ability but was sold privately last fall. Now with "Doc" Fisher on the mid-Atlantic circuit, he ran a strong race two back against "open" company at Pimlico. Ships up to face fellow New York-breds here. BELMONT PARK Race #SIXTH (THE TRUE NORTH) (2:55 PM Eastern) (# 7) BENNY THE BULL - Has turned into a sprinting terror and has done so over a variety of tracks and most recently won a $2,000,000 race on the Dubai "World Cup" undercard. Trained by "Big Brown's" conditioner, Richard Dutrow, many runners that return from the mid-east need some recovery time (see "Thor's Echo"). He's worked like he hasn't missed a beat. The choice for the win. Reverse the exactas with "Abraaj". (# 4) Abraaj - Returned in the mud on May 2 off a 10-month layoff and looked like he had never left. Stalked on the rail and blew by the over-matched group with ease. Fast and game, he is a worthy opponent for "Benny". (# 2) Thor's Echo - He's been away a very long time (March 31, 2007). He's working well for his return, but would need to be able to run his very best off the 14-month layoff. Tough assignment. (# 5) Suave Jazz - Should offer some price value in the bottom of the exotics. Solid runner is well below the top pair in talent, but could sneak into the tri at a decent price. Belmont Park Race #SEVEN (THE JUST A GAME) (3:35 PM Eastern) (# 5) CRIMINOLOGIST - Since trainer "Shug" McGaughey switched this runner to the turf, she's become as consistent as you could possibly be. Won a trio of stakes back-to-back-to-back last summer into fall before calling it a season in mid-November. Has returned sharp and looks to be hitting her peak at the right time. The choice in a very competitive race. (# 8) Sharp Susan - Move off the inside should allow a more comfortable journey for this talented filly. Defeated "Criminologist" in her seasonal debut at Gulfstream, then was compromised by a speed-favoring turf course at Churchill on Derby Day. Good shot at a square price. (# 10) Vacare - Returns off an October layoff for trainer Chris Clement. She's kept nothing but top company since winning her first pair of starts back in 2006. She's fired off of layoffs before and has been well prepared by a master turf trainer. Mare spent the winter at Payson Park in Florida before shipping north. (# 4) Ventura - Ran a much better race than it appears last out at Churchill. Chased while wide, made a strong bid on the turn and continued trying hard all the way to the end. Course was speed-favoring and the top pair ran 1-2 the whole race. BELMONT PARK Race #TEN (THE WOODFORD RESERVE MANHATTAN HDCP.) (5:35 PM Eastern) (# 5) OUT OF CONTROL - class "Einstein". Has not run a poor race since coming here from Brazil back in the summer of 2006. In the top barn of Bob Frankel he's been training very sharply here at Belmont since arriving around May 10. One of a pair entered by the trainer and they race un-coupled. The horse to beat. (# 9) Proudinsky - The second of the Frankel runners. Campaigned in Germany early in his career before being sent state side in the summer of '06. He's faced nothing but top competition in this country and began to reach new heights last year. Training in superb fashion, he gives the trainer a very-strong hand in this stakes. (# 7) Cougar Bay - be used in the "underneath" position of most wagers. Likes to rally late, so the faster the pace the better for his style. (# 6) Strike a Deal - Has some early speed and this race lacks a lot of pace. Son of "Smart Strike" ran a very strong race in his seasonal and four-year-old debut on May 11 in the "Volponi" stakes on this course. Set/pressed the pace the whole race at 1 1/8th miles and only gave way grudgingly very late to finish second beaten by less than a length. Working well since, he should run well. BELMONT PARK Race #ELEVEN (THE BELMONT STAKES) (6:25 PM Eastern) (# 1) BIG BROWN - What else can be said at this point? Talented son of the "Danzig" sire "Boundary" has made a shambles of all five fields he has faced in his racing career. I happened to be at Saratoga when he made his debut and must admit that I did not bet him that day. I came away with the impression that I had just witnessed something special, but did not know what it was. When you've been in this game as long as I have and seen well over 200,000 races in my career I can count less than 100 that I can say I would consider out of the ordinary. The last maiden to impress this much was by the now-injured "Lieutenant Ron", another three-year-old late last year. Before that it was "Afleet Alex" the day he won his debut at Delaware Park five years ago. Anyway, my early impressions of "Big Brown" have proven correct, but I underestimated his talent. Putting aside the foot problems, he should have little, if any trouble at all in becoming racing's 12th "Triple Crown" winner. He'll break from the rail and if there's no other rivals that want the top, jockey Kent Desormeaux can go right to the front. Preferably as in the Preakness, he would like a target to run after, and it's possible that #6 Da'Tara may be sent hard in an attempt to steal the race, which would make "Brown's" task even easier. My suggestion would be to try and either hook him up in exactas with the other selections here or "key" him on top in an attempt to hit the tri. Enjoy the race. (# 7) Tale of Ekati - Has a bit of a home-field advantage as this is the track where he is stabled and works over when in attendance here. He's a perfect two-for-two on this dirt and has been training like a horse that is nearing his peak. Skipped the Preakness after running a solid fourth in the Derby. Has shown talent from day one and I believe that he is a strong second pick. (# 4) Denis of Cork - Ran a very strong third in the Kentucky Derby. A lightly-raced horse, he overcame a lot of traffic after a slow start and he showed a lot of courage to pass so many as the race unfolded. Working sharply since and he did well by skipping the Preakness. Look for a strong performance as he reunites with Robbie Albarado who won a stakes at Oaklawn with him. (# 5) Casino Drive - After his "Peter Pan" victory, I like many others, was duly impressed. In only his second start and first off the plane from Japan, he made quick work of a decent field in saving ground, swinging-out and then drawing away. That said, I have been disappointed with the way he has been trained since. I would have liked to have seen his connections put some speed into him as he has had almost four weeks since the "Pan" win. Trainer is happy with him and they have Prado aboard. Would have picked him higher, but his price (about 5-1) doesn't warrant the inherent risks. (# 10) Ichabad Crane - Colt is still learning and should have no problems with the 12-furlong distance. Had some traffic issues late in the Preakness or he would have finished second. Continues to train forwardly for a top horseman (Graham Motion) and should offer a strong late bid. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-June-06-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-June-05-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-June-04-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-June-03-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-June-02-2008 |
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