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Handicapping Preakness - January 20, 2008In a brief recounting of yesterday's selections, even if armed with a solid analysis the most difficult part is the wager you ultimately select. If you had boxed all four selections in three of the five races we handicapped yesterday, you would have had a very successful day. However that's not always the best strategy based on the odds of the runners and the size of the fields. In Oaklawn's third race, two of the selections were longshots and the field was large, so that strategy would have been a good one. Conversely in Aqueduct's sixth and Gulfstream's fourth, the smaller fields would have made it a bad idea to box all four selections (even though it would have worked out well). It's a tough game, and what bet you make is more important than the horses selected at times. A lot depends on when you bet. The closer to post that you wager (if possible) will allow you a more intelligent bet based on the odds. Today we have a total of five races selected from Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park. Today's Best Bet is #3 Payne Bay in Race # 4 at Aqueduct. Saturday's Results: (The list below is of possible hits, if you boxed the horses. NOTE: a $1 (4 horse) trifecta box costs $24 and naturally a $2 box is $48.00). Aqueduct Race #3 Top Pick winner # 5 (Silver Light) paid $4.30. Exacta top pick with second pick (5-2) paid $14.80. Oaklawn Race #3 Tri box all four picks (5-10-6) paid $2833.60. Gulfstream Park Race #4 tri box all four picks (6-7-5) paid $540.40. Aqueduct Race #6 Tri box all four picks( 4-2-1) paid $262.50. Today's Horse Racing Picks: (# 3) CRANE BAY - Filly tries a distance of ground for the first time after a pair of sharp sprints. She's had about six weeks off since a third-place finish when she was in a pace battle. Has several good works leading to this increase in distance. (# 2) Ophite - Like the top pick, she is stretching out over a distance of ground for the first time. Filly is in a good barn (Dave Donk) and she has some speed. Probable frontrunner will take them a long way. (# 5) Chanced - She's improving with each start, and she finished second in her first attempt at a distance. She's in the Levine barn and they're having another fine winter. (# 4) Ambidaxtrous - Ran second in a claiming event in her one and only start, and it came at a distance. These are much tougher today. AQUEDUCT Race #FIVE (2:20 PM Eastern) (# 7) SHELBY'S MEMORY - Filly looks like she'll be very difficult to down in this spot. She's the main speed in a race without much on paper. Claimed by Gary Contessa last out she returns under the purchase price and with a sharp work in tow. Hook her up in the exacta. (# 3) Roxanne's Dancer - Ran third in her first race for trainer Julian Canet after a recent claim. That race was for a slightly higher tag than this and he drops her back down today. She'll be within range as they hit the far turn. (# 2) Angel Dancer - Did well to run third in a very slowly run race last out. She's always at the mercy of the pace and that may not work to her advantage here. AQUEDUCT Race #NINE (4:15 PM Eastern) (# 2) FASHION QUEEN - Looks like the main speed on paper and she should be able to secure the rail. Filly chased a very fast pace last out before tiring badly. May be able to clear today. (# 4) Ace of Hearts - Makes her third start off a freshening today. Improved in the second back despite a poor start. Fits, and is a serious rival. (# 1) Divorce Court - Tries winners for the first time after beating maiden-claimers at Philly Park. Ran well in Florida last year before heading north. In a sharp barn (Canet) and he gets Dominguez to pilot her. Filly has a good stalking gear and the rail. (# 8) Lutay Love - Likes to finish on the fringes and may impact the exotics at a good price. Barn sent out some recent runners that raced well. OAKLAWN PARK Race #FIVE (4:20 PM Eastern) (# 7) OAK VIEW RUNNER - Drops and stretches for the crafty Jorge Lara after a decent try at the Fair Grounds against $10K opponents. He's improved slightly in all three races since coming back from a late Sept. layoff. (# 6) North of Town - Son of "Mizzen Mast" is beginning to get it together. Dropped to a $15,000 tag in last, he easily disposed of a field at Turfway Park. He's had a little over a month off and is training well for his first start against winners. (# 1) Aileron - Deep closer is one of the few entered who you know will not be backing up thru the lane. Has raced against better stock and drops down to $10K today. Look for him late. (# 2) Cowboy Culture - Has been freshened up a bit by trainer Donnie Von Hemel after a very poor Hawthorne finale. He had run well in his first pair against winners before the sub-par effort on Nov. 8. Shot at a square price. OAKLAWN PARK Race #SEVEN (5:15 PM Eastern) (# 8) MAUAI STORM - Has really put it together after his first several tries. Dusted allowance foes at Turfway on Dec. 13 and is now here with the other Vickie Foley runners stabled here. Continues to drill sharply and he's the horse to beat. (# 6) Hensley - Asmussen runner has flashed some big speed at times and this son of "Posse" could be the main danger here. Has a work on Jan. 8 that is very sharp. (# 4) Pulaski Runner - Fields most experienced runner comes from a barn (Bob Holthus) that knows how to develop it's three-year-olds. Son of "Tale of the Cat" looks like he'll appreciate some more distance. He'll be closing late. (# 1) Shekinah - Son of "Johannesburg" has been working well at the Fair Grounds for his return from a late-Sept. layoff. Tried the Kentucky Cup Juv.(G3)after breaking his maiden at Arlington. Has some talent and works indicate that he may be ready. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-January-19-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-January-18-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-January-17-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-January-16-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-January-15-2008 |
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