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Handicapping The Kentucky Derby - December 18, 2008Bowing to heavy pressure from all sides, The Breeder's Cup Organization reinstated the $5,000,000 in added fees to various stake races throughout the country that it had suspended for a year and announced last week. Today we have a total of five races, three from the Fair Grounds and two from Hollywood Park. Today's Best Bet is #6 East Breaks in Race #5 at the Fair Grounds.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #4 (GUSTO NUEVO) - The main speed will be dropping in class today and looks like he can take this field wire-to-wire, albeit at a short price. 2nd pick: #2 (Theze) - Training extremely fast for his first race in almost two months, this Cody Autry trainee looks well-prepared for his return to action. More than capable against this group. 3rd pick: #9 (Buildakiss) - Away for almost 1 1/2 years, he raced evenly in his return in a race that he certainly needed badly. Likes this course (four for five) and needs a move forward in his second off the long break. 4th pick: #6 (Love Mountain) - Another who recently returned from a long absence (12 months) and weakened late after racing up near the pace. Veteran should be much "tighter" second time back. FAIR GROUNDS Race #5 at 3:20 PM Eastern Top pick: #6 (EAST BREAKS) - Impressive debut saw her race up and on the pace while wide, reach the front briefly in mid-stretch only to miss by a neck on the wire. Stretches-out to a route and that's a big time move with a second time starter by trainer Steve Asmussemn (36%). 2nd pick: #8 (Relay) - Goes turf to dirt and will get blinkers on courtesy of trainer Al Stall. She should be fit off the two grass races and she's been training well on this dirt. 3rd pick: #1 (Weave A Web) - Barn (Neil Howard) almost never has them ready first time out. This daughter of "Mineshaft" raced evenly in a sprint in her debut and draws the rail in start number two as she is sent a distance. Look for much better today. FAIR GROUNDS Race #6 at 3:50 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (FRIESAN FIRE) - Promising son of "A P Indy" drops back into allowance competition after an even effort in the "Nashua" S.(G3) in his return off a two-month freshening. Showed plenty of talent in his first pair and he has an extremely fast work for this, presumably with the blinkers on that he'll wear today. 2nd pick: #4 (Indygo Mountain) - Nice-looking son of "A P Indy" cost a cool $600,000 at auction, but he could prove a bargain off his win at a mile last out. He's being both gingerly and patiently handled by a top trainer (W.Bret Calhoun). 3rd pick: #3 (Uno Mas) - Stretches-out to a route after breaking his maiden in fine style over a good field sprinting. Steve Asmussen is calling the shots and this colt looks like a big player from just off the pace. HOLLYWOOD PARK Race #4 at 5:00 PM Eastern Top pick: #1 (REAL LIFT) - Re-claimed by Jeff Mullins on Oct. 31, she's been on the sidelines since. Filly won off a similar scenario this past spring, so trainer is looking for lightning to strike twice with this move. Filly loves this track and this particular distance. Hard to deny. 2nd pick: #3 (Catch Candy) - Filly is the main-speed of this contest and has never finished out of the money on this surface. Very tough if left on an uncontested lead. 3rd pick: #5 (Twodollarstowin) - Set the pace and hung on last out. Pace will be much quicker today, so she'll need to stalk, which she's done successfully in the past. HOLLYWOOD PARK Race #6 at 6:05 PM Eastern Top pick: #4 (BOULE D'OR) - He's taken to this new surface just fine after being a stakes winner earlier in his career on the turf. Won his latest with a powerful late move. Drops off of that one and it's a bit suspicious, but he's the choice nonetheless. 2nd pick: #3 (Outrageous Limit) - Like the top pick, he'll be dropping in class and that's because they're exiting the same race. Wasn't that far off the choice in that one and the margin is easily reversible. 3rd pick: #5 (Gary's Got Rhythm) - Runs back at the same level for the sixth-straight time. He's been competitive in all, but will need to pick it up a bit for a shot at the win. 4th pick: #1 (Lendell) - In career shape at present, he's been particularly sharp in his last three (2-1-0). He's the main speed and has the rail. Must be caught. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-December-17-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-December-16-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-December-15-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-December-14-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-December-13-2008 |
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