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Handicapping The Kentucky Derby - August 24, 2008It was "bombs away" yesterday at Saratoga as many long-priced winners scored and exotics payoffs reached some new records, including a $1,450,000 superfecta! The 139th "Travers Stakes" produced an exciting finish that saw just about everyone (including this observer) fooled into thinking that #9 "Mambo in Seattle" had won the race. Cameras proved otherwise, though I'm still not sure how it happened. By the narrowest of margins - a half a nose, West-Coast invader "Colonel John" had his picture taken. The loss was the second straight year that owner/trainer/jockey combination of Farrish-Howard-Albarado came up a a whisker short. Today's Best Bet is #7 Lord Robyn in Race #3 at Saratoga. Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #7 (LORD ROBYN) - Finished third in a stakes last out and will drop into a much more suitable race for this attempt. Veteran is working sharply and draws a nice post. Nicely spotted by the Richard Dutrow barn to pick up his 9th turf win. 2nd pick: #1 (Not Acclaim) - Hard-hitter ships up from the mid-Atlantic region for trainer Kirk Ziadie. Veteran loves this turf sprinting game ( 22-9-6-0) and is exiting a series of four stakes where he ran well without winning. 3rd pick: #6 (Hatta Fort) - Certainly has talent and he has a recent good showing on this surface on July 31. Have a feeling that we'll see his best yet today. Lack of early speed has been compromising his chances. SARATOGA Race #5 at 3:10 PM Eastern Top pick: #4 (MORGAN'S RUN) - Makes her first start since early February at Gulfstream Park. Daughter of "Smart Strike" had a poor post that day but ran well despite racing very wide the whole race. She's working fast for a top layoff barn (Todd Pletcher 19%) and is a big win contender. 2nd pick: #5 (It's Not For Love) - Has the most speed and experience, and faces a field lite on racing savy. Daughter of "Not For Love" has finished a pace-setting second in her last three turf attempts. The main danger. 3rd pick: #2 (Keelys Black Magic) - Raced well despite an eventful trip in her only appearance, last January at Gulfstream. Working fine for a top trainer (Tom Proctor) she draws the hedge and has blinkers removed for the return run. 4th pick: #6 (Sealed Bid) - Filly's lone turf race was her best of four starts. Bred for the grass and in a good turf barn ( "Rusty" Arnold) she's been freshened up since mid-June. Dangerous foe. 5th pick: #7 (Gipsy Lore) - Latest, her first of the "08" season was a strong effort at Mommouth. Stayed close to the pace and held her position. Working well locally since, she's a contender from just off the top. SARATOGA Race #10 (THE BALLERINA) at 5:40 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (MISTICAL PLAN) - Latest win at Calder in the Grade 1 "Princess Rooney" was simply awesome. Filly stalked a very fast pace on the deep Florida track and drew away impressively to win by almost six lengths in 1:10.60. Training well since, a repeat of her last could win this. 2nd pick: #2 (Sugar Swirl) - Accomplished stablemate of the better known "Ginger Punch", filly has really come into her own this season. She's won five of her last six dating back to last fall and all have been in sprints. Training well locally for Bob Frankel, she's four-for-six at this tough distance. 3rd pick: #7 (Miraculous Miss) - Goes third off the bench for trainer Steve Klesaris and closer may get a fast/contested pace in front of her to help her tactics out. She's run exclusively in sprint stakes dating back to her win in the G2 "Comely" 2 1/2 years ago. Training well and is a late threat. 4th pick: #3 (Leah's Secret) - Doubt that she's a win candidate, but for those playing triples and supers, she may be able to get into the bottom of either or both and make a better wager than just playing the top two in an exacta. SARATOGA Race #11 at 6:30 PM Eastern Top pick: #3 (EXONERATED) - Stretches out and goes second off a mid-May layoff for Graham Motion. Filly had a tough 12-post in her return here on August 2, and still ran well. Trainer is one of the best (21%) on the distance stretch. 2nd pick: #5 (Mandy's Purse) - Very impressive maiden win in her only start thus far last May at Belmont. Excellent breeding for a New York bred and she is now in the barn of Chris Clement after starting with the Pletcher outfit. Latest drill was fast and should have her on edge. 3rd pick: #2 (She Can Dance) - Ran poorly last out, but that was a race intended for the grass and switched due to weather issues. Previous pair this year were excellent and she's a major threat from her hedge draw. 4th pick: #8 (Judges Pride) - Freshened up since a fair try here during the first week of the meeting. Stalker may get a nice set-up today and she'll sneak away at a square price. 5th pick: #6 (Here Comes Rita) - Lightly raced and improving, she just broke her maiden on this course in visually-impressive style. Filly could have a lot more improvement in her at this stage. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-August-23-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-August-22-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-August-21-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-August-20-2008 Horse-Racing-Picks-August-19-2008 |
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