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Horse Racing System - April 30, 2010Welcome to Opening Day of Belmont Parks spring/summer meet and also a special day at Churchill Downs, where they will run the 136th Kentucky Oaks and reigning "Horse of the Year" Rachel Alexandra will compete in the $400,00 "La Troienne Stakes" in an attempt to avenge a loss earlier this year to Zardana. We'll have the "Oaks" as one of our five races selected for picks and analysis. Today's Best Bet is #8 Convocation in Race #8 at Belmont Park. East Coast Results: Churchill Downs Race #4 Exacta (8-5) $21.80. Churchill Downs Race #8 Best Bet #2 (Our Dark Knight) $4.20.  Today's Horse Racing Picks: Top pick: #7 (ULTERIOR MOTIVE) - Son of "Distorted Humor" only made one start at age two, chasing and tiring in a two-turn race on the Saratoga turf. On the shelf since that August 27 contest he's working very fast for his return and runs for a new trainer (Richard Dutrow Jr. 23% with new arrivals). Dominguez is aboard and the trainer/jockey combo wins at an incredible 46% rate. The top selection. 2nd pick: #2b (Brother Bird) - Logical contender finished second at Saratoga August 15 in his only race in 2009, then finished a solid second March 27 at Gulfstream going 7 furlongs in his seasonal debut. Strong win candidate, he runs coupled in the wagering with "Christmas for Liam". 3rd pick: #2 (Christmas for Liam) - He finished two lengths behind "Brother Bird" when he debuted in late March and has a pair of sharp local works since shipping north. Contender. 4th pick: #3 (Marching Tune) - Price play in the exotics, he raced evenly in a pair at this level and distance earlier this year at Gulfstream and has a nice local work for this, presumably with the "blinkers on" he'll wear this afternoon. CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #9 (THE ALYSHEBA (G3)) at 3:50 PM Eastern Top pick: #7 (ARSON SQUAD) - Talented but fragile runner is stringing starts together for the first time since the fall of '08. Last out he won the "Skip Away" (G3) at Gulfstream in his thied (and best) effort since coming back from an eight month layoff in February. Has a nice local work and there appears to be enough speed signed on to help his one run style out. The top pick. 2nd pick: #4 (Cool Coal Man) - Very fast early and he loves this particular distance (6-4-1-0). Zito trained son of "Mineshaft" has a big "bullet" drill here on April 22 and he'll be very tough if left alone early. 3rd pick: #2 (Friesan Fire ) - Has some speed but not as much as "Coal", so he'll probably need to rate which he's done successfully in the past. Working fast and frequently for this his first race on this surface since he was favored in last year's "Derby" and was injured in that race. 4th pick: #3 (Macho Again) - Strong finisher likes the local surface (6-3-1-0) and is working nicely for his first race since late November. This is a tough spot for his seasonal debut and he would need a fast/contested pace for anything more than a minor award. BELMONT PARK Race #8 (THE WESCHESTER (G3)) at 4:30 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (CONVOCATION) - Lightly raced but talented son of "Pulpit" lookes awesome winning his seasonal debut at this "flat" mile trip at Gulfstream March 18. Working sharply locally for this he's one of a pair entered by "Hall of Famer" H. Allen Jerkens and they'll race as separate interests. The top selection. 2nd pick: #6 (Bribon ) - He won this race last year and he's just plain and simple an old-fashioned "miler". French-bred is (11-5-3-1) at this trip and is even better locally (7-3-3-1). Working sharply for only his second race since running second in the "Cigar Mile" last fall, he's a strong win factor. 3rd pick: #7 (Le Grande Cru) - The second from the barn of "Big Chief" Jerkens he's two for three locally and has a pair of very impressive local works since shipping up from Gulfstream. Exotics factor. 4th pick: #1 (Elusive Warning) - Part of a Kiaran McLaughlin-trained entry he's also entered in a sprint stakes on Delaware Park's opening day card tomorrow. Has some ability and he could be a stretch factor if he runs. CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #11 (THE KENTUCKY OAKS(G1)) at 5:45 PM Eastern Top pick: #5 (BLIND LUCK) - Talented and bargain-priced ($11,000) daughter of "Pollard's Vision" proved again last out when winning the "Fantasy" (G2) at Oaklawn that she's just as comfortable on conventional dirt as "poly." Strong finisher gets a nice pace se-up with lots of speed types signed-on and she'll be very tough to beat in this spot, but it's a large field and that means some traffic issues, so reverse those exacts just in case. 2nd pick: #8 (Tidal Pool) - Solid filly was run down late by "Luck" in the Fantasy in Arkansas after setting a reasonable pace. She broke her maiden here last spring so you know she'll handle the surface and her last two works are impressive. Win candidate. 3rd pick: #1 (It's Tea Time) - Very lightly raced daughter of "Dynaformer" has a srtrong finishing kick as she makes her first start on conventional dirt today. Working well and according to trainer George Arnold "she's doing great." Stretch threat. 4th pick: #13 (Amen Hallelujah) - Speed/stalker won the "Davona Dale" at Gulfstream in impressive fashion Feb. 27, then finished second in the "Bonnie Miss" at the same track to the Pletcher trained "Devil May Care" who is running tomorow in the "Derby." Can factor today. 5th pick: #6 (Beautitian) - Filly has talent and appeasr to be much better on conventional dirt.(4-1-3-0). She finished second at Oaklawn in the "Honeybee" in her seasonal bow, then did not run a lick in the "Alcibiades" at Keeneland last out. Retuns to real dirt and is a "live" longshot. CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #12 at 6:20 PM Eastern Top pick: #8 (READY TO SING) - Filly by "More Than Ready" has been freshened-up by a very good barn (Mike Stidham) since missing by a "nose" at this level and distance at the Fair Groungs on Feb. 20. Working sharply at Keeneland for her return she's the choice to break her maiden. 2nd pick: #10 (Bialy) - Obvious contender has finished second at this level in all three of her starts and she would be no surprise this afternoon, though at a very short price. Filly has been the favorite in each outing. 3rd pick: #1 (Ash Zee) - Debuting filly is working fast for trainer Steve Asmussen and this $375,000 daughter of "Exchange Rate" will break from the ral. Lasix is administered for her first start and she looks well-meant. 4th pick: #3 (Wyn Jym) - $200,000 daughter of "Proud Citizen" chased and tired a bit last fall at Keeneland when debuting and has been on the sidelines since. Working well and trainer Dave Carroll names his "go to" rider (Miguel Mena). 5th pick: #9 (Lil More Dixie) - She goes turf to dirt after finishing an even third last out at Keeneland. Stretch threat for the exotics. Horse Racing Picks Resources:
Check out the last five Horse Racing Picks Newsletters: Horse-Racing-Picks-April-29-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-28-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-27-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-26-2010 Horse-Racing-Picks-April-25-2010 |
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