The Wunderdog Fantasy Challenge

darrell, Think you got game? Show the world and enter the WFC for a chance to win the $5,000 grand prize. Top 10 spots win and weekly prizes paid for top scoring teams.

GROGANS FANTASY DRAFT TIP - DEFENSES
Brought to you by Athlon/Grogan s Fantasy Football exclusively for Wunderdog Sports. Dan and Kelly Grogan are kicking off their 21st fantasy season and you can get full fantasy coverage at www.grogansports.com. Grogans offers both draft and in-season fantasy assistance and their Cheat Sheets are not just updated daily, but can be customized to your scoring system. As a Wunderdog subscriber you'll receive a 20% discount of all on-line services at Athlon/Grogans. Just be sure to type in Wunderdog in the Code box.

ATLANTA FALCONS
The Atlanta Falcons fell far short of their expectations last season and will likely be devalued on draft day. However, they were very active during the off-season and with the prospect of gaining back a few guys from injury, look for them to surprise.

With good reason, hopes were high for the Falcons last season. They led the NFL with 48 sacks in '04, scored 5 TDs (special teams chipped in another one) and their 19 picks put them in the top ten for interceptions. However, injuries quickly became the operative word. They lost their best run-stopper LB Ed Hartwell to an Achilles tear in week five and the secondary was beset by injuries and other problems as they exited training camp. The net result was a huge decline in fantasy value. Sack production slipped to 37 (they recorded just 13 in their final nine games); the defense managed just 2 TDs on a mediocre 29 takeaways.

But, here's the reason for optimism. Recognizing their shortcomings, the Atlanta signed veterans safety Lawyer Milloy and DE John Abraham during the off-season. They further bolstered the secondary by adding ex-Cleveland safety Chris Crocker and grabbed Jimmy Williams who was regarded by many as the top CB in this years college draft. Williams together with emerging shut-down star DeAngelo Hall give the Falcons one of the best young CB tandems in the league.

Look for sack production to rise as Abraham and Patrick Kerney team up to as one of the better pass rushing duos in the league. Getting Hartwell back would also be a significant factor in limiting the opposition on the ground.

Atlanta's schedule features some potentially explosive teams (Cincinnati, Dallas, Carolina (twice) and the Giants), but there are several matchups in the Falcons' favor. Detroit, Baltimore and New Orleans (twice) all have new QBs and both Cleveland and the Bucs have relatively young signal callers.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The second team we'd like to highlight as being undervalued this year is Jacksonville. The Jags aren't complete unknowns by any means, but your competition might have them ranked lower than they should be. We like them because they get the meaningful fantasy numbers. They're very good at getting pressure on QBs (their 46 sacks last year were the 4th most) and we have found that there's a good correlation between sacks and forcing mistakes. That's probably the reason for their 20 interceptions (6th) last season.

If pressuring the QB wasn't enough, the Jags are also very good at stopping the run. Making opponents one-dimensional is the goal of every defense and Jacksonville is very good at it. Only three backs ran for 100+ yards against them last season and nine times the Jaguars held the opposition to fewer than 3.9 yards per carry.

Jacksonville more than held its own against some of the highest scoring offenses last season and this can be a bonus if the "points allowed" statistic is considered in your league. The Jaguars held the Seahawks to just 14 points, Cincinnati to 20 and the Colts to 10 and 26 in two games. This defense also limited nine foes to no more than 17 points in '05. Only Indianapolis (26) and Tennessee (28) scored more than 25 against them and the Titans' defense accounted for one a TD with a fumble return.

Besides their annual two games with the Colts, the Jags have New England, Dallas, Kansas City and the Giants on the schedule, but this defense doesn't appear fazed by what the opposition looks like.

Take a look at Grogan's premium services. Remember, enter "Wunderdog" in the Code box to get a 20% discount off their normal prices.

Mock Draft Rounds 1 & 2
In our Mock Draft analysis we walk you through an entire mock draft during July and August. We provide analysis on why we made the moves we did and our thoughts on the draft moves of others in the league. This is based on a real mock draft we recently conducted in which we drew draft position #3. This week we'll take a look at rounds 1 and 2 of that draft...

Round 1
1 heywood RB LaDanian Tomlinson SD
2 Team Thetford RB Shaun Alexander SEA
3 Wunderdog RB Larry Johnson KC
4 OG 6 RB Clinton Portis WAS
5 Omega smegma RB Tiki Barber NYG
6 steamers RB Edgerrin James ARI
7 peaches&cream QB Peyton Manning IND
8 Floggers WR Steve Smith CAR
9 bucs RB LaMont Jordan OAK
10 BKLYN ROAD DAWG QB Matt Hasselbeck SEA
11 ballers RB Ronnie Brown MIA
12 Firebirds2 RB Rudi Johnson CIN

Best Pick in Round 1: I would say that #11 ballers taking Ronnie Brown would be the best. I would have taken Brown in the middle of this round (maybe as high as 6th or 7th ) and ballers was able to get him at almost the end of this first round. This gives him a very solid RB and will be able to have his pick between many other star players when we swing this draft around to round 2 as he has the 2nd pick in the 2nd round. Now that Miami has a QB who can put the ball in the air with at least SOME accuracy, look for Brown to benefit and get near the goal line a number of times this year -- a nice grab at the end of the 1st round.

Worst Pick in Round 1: This is an easy one, #10 BKLYN ROAD DAWG taking Matt Hasselbeck. He isn't the second best QB this year and isn't worthy of being selected before the 4th round. In most drafts, he would be drafted about round 5 or 6. If B.R. Dawg wanted Hasselbeck that badly, he could have still gotten him with little risk in round 3. Either way you look at it, in some leagues there are no QBs drafted in the first round at all. With the exception of Peyton Manning (maybe), there is no reason for a QB drafted in this round. Focus on RB's as you see the rest of the league did.

My Pick in Round 1: This was runner-up for "best pick" in this round (all humbleness aside). In my opinion Larry Johnson has the most upside of anyone in the league this year (and drafted #1 in many leagues). Much debated is whether it's better to have an early pick in round 1 to get a stud player (relegating them to the bottom of the order in round two), or a "swing picks" at the end of round 1, or a middle-position. It surely doesn't work every year, but this year, there are 3 stud players in my opinion and any one of the three could be on top of the league by season's end. Because of this, I felt great getting the 3rd pick in this years draft. I was able to get 1 of the big 3 stud RBs (LT, LJ or Alexander) and then get to pick ahead of the other two in round 2. Very happy with LJ drafting third!


Round 2
1 Firebirds2 RB Steven Jackson STL
2 ballers WR Chad Johnson CIN
3 BKLYN ROAD DAWG WR Terrell Owens DAL
4 bucs RB Carnell Williams TB
5 Floggers WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI
6 peaches&cream RB Domanick Davis HOU
7 steamers WR Torry Holt STL
8 Omega smegma RB Willis McGahee BUF
9 OG 6 RB Julius Jones DAL
10 Wunderdog RB Brian Westbrook PHI
11 Team Thetford WR Marvin Harrison IND
12 heywood QB Carson Palmer CIN

Best Pick in Round 2: With the #6 pick in this round, peaches&cream took Domanick Davis and I feel this to be the best pick of round 2. Not only do I feel that he is one of the top 10 RBs, but he is also someone I expected to be taken late in the 1st round. The ability to grab him in the middle of the 2nd round represents excellent value. It was also key for peaches to get a solid RB as his first selection was used to take P.Manning in round 1. I would expect another RB from this team in round 3 unless a stud WR was still on the board. Look for Davis to be well worth this middle 2nd round pick.

Worst Pick in Round 2: This is a toss up between Fitzgerald and Palmer as both are "reaches" at this point. In the end though, I would say that #12 in round 2 heywood taking Carson Palmer was the worst pick of this round. The problem here (as in round 1), is that this is still a bit too early for a QB who isn't named Peyton Manning. This team has one quality RB and there are many more RBs still on the board, as well as some top WRs. The only saving grace for heywood is that he gets back to back picks and if his next pick is a solid RB, this won't be so bad. While it will be 24 more picks (the end of round 4) before heywood drafts again, and Palmer may not be around, there will be other quality QBs available at that point and I'd use my second round pick on a RB.

My Pick in Round 2: With the 10th pick in this round I took Brian Westbrook from the Eagles. He will have many chances to score as the Eagles like to use him both running the ball and catching the ball in the backfield. This is a top 15 RB in my opinion and now I have 2 very quality RBs as the core of my team (LJ and Westbrook). While it is odd to see people taking Westbrook in round 1, it was expected that he would have been drafted much earlier in the 2nd round. The fact that I was able to get him at nearly the end of this round is a boon. I have an early 3rd round pick to grab one of the stud WRs still left on the board (Harrison, Moss, Ward) or look to grab another RB or QB if all 3 have been taken in the next 4 picks (but I would doubt either of the next two teams taking back-to-back WRs which should leave me with at least one of the 3 WRs mentioned above). Surely the start of a solid team and in good position to do well in the 3rd round.

In next week's newsletter, we'll look at rounds 3 and 4...

Have a fantasy football question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll try to answer it in next week's newsletter.

QUESTION: Alex from FL asks, "I have seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers being drafted as high as the 3rd best defense overall and feel this is a little too high for them, would you agree or am I missing out on one of the better teams this year?"

ANSWER: Not at all; Stay away from TB this early! This is the problem with owners who do not follow fantasy football year round (as it sounds like you do). I am sure that TB will have a solid defense as they do most every year. They will carry TB to contention for their Division title. That being said, this is not something that always translates into a solid fantasy defense. I have noticed TB going quite high as well in the mock drafts I have entered and feel they are more of a strong backup rather than a weak starter.

QUESTION: Kevin from Ohio asks, "I am a Bengals fans and know I should try not to take players from the team I like simply because I grew up watching them. I have heard that the Bengals may have a solid defensive unit this year and wonder if that's correct or if its just something I wish would be true."

ANSWER: I agree that you should stay away from players you enjoy watching simply because they are on your favorite team. However, you have stumbled upon a situation here where I think it would be okay. I have seen the Bengals go undrafted in some leagues and there is no reason for this. They play in a division where there is lots of running the football and lower scoring games. They have also made a few moves in the off-season and could be ranked in the top 10 by year's end. This isn't a superstar defense that I would take over the Colts or Giants or Steelers, but surely a defense that should be taken in later rounds as a starting unit.

QUESTION: Harry writes, "Houston used their #1 draft pick in 2006 to take Mario Williams over Reggie Bush in hopes that he would help improve their defense. Do you see this being the case out of the gate?"

ANSWER: I would like to first start off by saying that I did not think there was any way they would pass up on Bush in this year's draft. I think Mario Williams is a solid player and should do very well in this league, but he is not the type of player that will take one of the worst defensive teams in the league and turn them into a good unit. Their pass defense is still going to be poor, though I do feel they will have a much better front line to stop the run. They have an okay secondary, but nothing to brag about compared to some of the other secondary units you see around the league. In the end, there are many more backup defenses you should be looking to take for your fantasy team before you select the Texans.

QUESTION: Brandon from Mississippi writes, "With all that has happened in New Orleans, is there any chance their defense will show improvements in 2006?"

ANSWER: Sadly I have to say no to this one. They simply don't have a solid unit and are without enough key players to stop anyone at this point. The best they can hope for is lots of running the football, running the clock down, slowing the game down and leave the Def. on the bench as long as possible. If this doesn't happen, I'm sorry to say that I would predict the Saints team fantasy defense finishing dead last this year.

Have a question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll do our best to answer it in next week's newsletter.

About This Newsletter

Complimentary Fantasy Football Advice

This newsletter is for designed to help fantasy sports fans win their leagues. Via this newsletter, you can get player rankings, sleepers, busts, cheat sheet information and learn about great fantasy football contests. We'll review mock drafts and answer your email questions.

About The Wunderdog

Fantasy Advice and Sports Picks

Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College Football, NBA, NHL & NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not gut feel. View more info about The Dog.