The Wunderdog Fantasy Challenge

darrell, Think you got game? Show the world and enter the WFC for a chance to win the $5,000 grand prize. Top 10 spots win and weekly prizes paid for top scoring teams.

Grogan's Fantasy Draft Tip - QUARTERBACKS
Brought to you by Athlon/Grogan 's Fantasy Football exclusively for Wunderdog Sports. Dan and Kelly Grogan are kicking off their 21st fantasy season and you can get full fantasy coverage at www.grogansports.com. Grogan's offers both draft and in-season fantasy assistance and their Cheat Sheets are not just updated daily, but can be customized to your scoring system. As a Wunderdog subscriber you'll receive a 20% discount of all on-line services at Athlon/Grogan's. Just be sure to type in "Wunderdog" in the Code box.

KURT WARNER/ARIZONA
It's draft day. You've missed out on Peyton Manning couldn't pass up another top running back. Carson Palmer? Nope. Other priorities. Tom Brady? Needed a wide receiver. You take a pass on several others and suddenly you find yourself in need of a fantasy signal caller. Are you cooked? Was this a critical mistake? Not necessarily.

The "pass on a QB until you really need one" strategy is a common one since many think there's not a great drop-off in value once you're looking at quarterbacks in the 5-12 range. But, say you're now looking at guys like Drew Bledsoe, Kurt Warner, and Ben Roethlisberger. What do you do?

No doubt, the fantasy risk is higher down at this level, but here's why we think Warner should be your guy.

While Cincinnati and Indianapolis might argue differently, we think Arizona has the best tandem of WRs in the league. Anquan Boldin has been nothing short of spectacular since joining the NFL in '03 and we didn't have to wait the customary 3-years to see what Larry Fitzgerald can do (103 catches last season). Rookie TE Leonard Pope might not open the season as the starter, but he's expected to find his way into the starting lineup before long. At 6'7", he makes for a terrific target and has excellent hands too. So, Warner's weapons are in place.

Unlike last year, defenses won't be able to drop extra guys in coverage either. Not with Edgerrin James now in the Cards' backfield. This was a huge problem for Warner in '05 as his meager 11 TDs in 10 games attests. Arizona combination of JJ Arrington and Marcel Shipp never mustered more than 85 yards rushing in any game last season and this duo managed all of 2 TDs. Although a lot of fingers were pointed at the offensive line and this remains a question mark, few will argue that defenses will have more respect for the Cardinals' running game this year.

So what might be on tap for Warner in '06? It wouldn't surprise us if his yardage stats drop some from last year, but we think his TDs will be up. Warner averaged 312 yards per game last season (300+ five times) and that was because he had to throw so much. He attempted over 40 passes in nearly all of his outings last season. With the addition of James, we're expecting to see a more balanced offense this year. But, as noted, James' presence should open things up for the passing game too and this is why we think Warner's scoring will increase. We think we'll see him in the 22-25 range for TDs and have him for over 3800 yards through the air.

TRENT GREEN/KANSAS CITY
We're as forgiving as the next guy when it comes to a good player having a bad season, but Trent Green's 17 TD passes last year has us on edge. This is a guy who was perennially good for 25+ TDs and 4000+ yards. Although we did see the yardage (4014), Green's fantasy value cratered because of his scoring drop-off. Is he in danger of repeating?

While a total repeat would be a little surprising, we don't think Green will be back among the elite fantasy QBs this season. Here's why:

New coach Herm Edwards might be the polar opposite of Dick Vermeil when it comes to coaching style. Edwards loves a conservative, ball-controlled offense which better suits Larry Johnson than it does Green and the receivers. Vermeil along with offensive coordinator Al Saunders often kept the passing game in high gear even with a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter. Don't underestimate the loss of Saunders (now in Washington) either. While ex-running back coach Mike Solari takes over, he'll be hard-pressed to match Saunder's creativity.

We don't see any reason why Edwards will stray away from a Larry Johnson focused offense. Remember too that Johnson's 16 red zone TDs were a big reason why the numbers for both Green and Tony Gonzalez's (2 TDs) were down last year.

At least on paper, KC looks to be better defensively as well and when the offense isn't constantly fighting from behind, the passing game can take a back seat. The Chiefs gave up at least 27 points in six games last year. While you won't mistake this defense for the Bears, the addition of CB Ty Law helps significantly.

Green's outlook is 20-23 TDs and 3600-3900 yards and this is down enough to have him on the outside looking in at fantasy's elite QBs this year.

Take a look at Grogan's premium services. Remember, enter "Wunderdog" in the Code box to get a 20% discount off their normal prices.

Mock Draft Rounds 9 & 10
In our Mock Draft analysis we walk you through an entire mock draft during July and August. We provide analysis on why we made the moves we did and our thoughts on the draft moves of others in the league. This is based on a real mock draft we recently conducted in which we drew draft position #3. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis, rounds 3 and 4 analysis, rounds 5 and 6 analysis and rounds 7 and 8 analysis from prior weeks.

Round 9
1 heywood DEF DEN Defense DEN
2 Team Thetford QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT
3 Wunderdog QB Kurt Warner ARI
4 OG 6 TE Vernon Davis SF
5 Omega smegma RB DeAngelo Williams CAR
6 steamers WR Reggie Brown PHI
7 peaches&cream RB Ron Dayne DEN
8 Floggers QB Drew Brees NO
9 bucs QB Michael Vick ATL
10 BKLYN ROAD DAWG WR Rod Smith DEN
11 ballers WR Laveranues Coles NYJ
12 Firebirds2 DEF NYG Defense NYG


Best Pick in round 9: I would say the best selection in this round was taken by steamers. Reggie Brown is a sleeper WR who is the top pass-catching option on the Eagles. There were talks that Ashley Lelie may sign with Philly and give McNabb a proven target to throw to ball to in 2006, but that option has come and gone leaving Brown as the target of choice. With the upside of a #1 WR on a team like Philly to be taken so late in the draft, this clearly has to be the best pick for its value in round 9.

Worst Pick in round 9: With the top pick in this draft, heywood selected Denver's team defense and I find this to clearly be the worst pick of this round. Not only were there better defenses out there to be selected (ie: NY Giants), but Denver does not have a strong enough defense to even be a backup in some small fantasy leagues, let alone start in any of them. Not sure what heywood was thinking with this selection, but if they really wanted Denver, they could have waited until the last round or at least a bit closer to it than the 9th.

My Pick in round 9: As Big Ben was taken, It was clear that I needed to take my sleeper QB. I was busy building my RB and WR groups as other teams were taking QB's higher than I felt they should have been. This let me wait until the 9th round until taking my QB. Not just any QB either, but my top sleeper pick of this year with plenty of upside. I will need to look to take Leinart in a much later round however and handcuff these two on my roster plus get a backup for Arizona's bye week. Very pleased to grab Warner here and team is still looking solid.

Round 10
1 Firebirds2 PK Jason Elam DEN
2 ballers PK Mike Vanderjagt DAL
3 BKLYN ROAD DAWG RB Ahman Green GB
4 bucs RB Frank Gore SF
5 Floggers RB Mike Anderson BAL
6 peaches&cream RB Laurence Maroney NE
7 steamers QB Byron Leftwich JAC
8 Omega smegma RB LenDale White TEN
9 OG 6 QB Aaron Brooks OAK
10 Wunderdog TE Kellen Winslow CLE
11 Team Thetford TE Jerramy Stevens SEA
12 heywood PK Jeff Reed PIT


Best Pick in round 10: I have done my best to select the "best" pick in each round without using my selection (even if I thought it was the best). It lasted until the 10th round, but there are just no other options here I feel. There was no one of great value taken at any position and those of you that have been following along to the newsletters and had a chance to read about the sleeper TE of 2006 know how high I am on Winslow this year. His offensive system may not look great in the preseason but this is surely a team that will be passing the ball often as they are behind late in games and Winslow should look to line up as a WR for a few plays each game. Once the studs at the TE position are drafted, and if you do not get a chance to take them, focus on a sleeper pick with low risk and high reward (such as Winslow) to take in the later rounds and use your earlier picks to fill in other key areas and depth of your team.

Worst Pick in round 10: It's sad to say but heywood has made back to back mistakes in this draft as they are now taking a kicker. Again, this isn't a top kicker but an "average" one that could have been drafted a few rounds later. One tip this brings to mind is to remember that you do not have to fill your starting roster before drafting backups. Most teams have not selected all their K, Def's and TE spots at this point and the reason is because of all the WRs and RBs (key positions) that can still be taken. Look for heywoods back to back errors to cost him in terms of depth as the season injuries occur and bye weeks start to become an issue.

My Pick in round 10: See above.

If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis, rounds 3 and 4 analysis, rounds 5 and 6 analysis and rounds 7 and 8 analysis.

Have a fantasy football question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll try to answer it in next week's newsletter.

QUESTION: Hockey28 asks, "I have heard a lot of people saying that Matt Hasselbeck is better than Peyton Manning because of his favorable schedule and because of Shaun Alexander. Is this true?"

ANSWER: The simple way to answer this is "No." Hasselbeck has some solid passing options and a more proven running game, but their schedule is favorable most every year and 2006 is no different. Manning is clearly the number one fantasy QB option and a cut above the rest. Peyton's value may suffer without the pass catching abilities of E. James, though he also may get to throw the ball more in the red zone and improve on his TD numbers. There is no reason to think of Hasselbeck as a first round draft pick (though a chance someone may take Manning in this round) and even a few other better options at QB this year even ahead of Matt. Don't overvalue players simply because of the hype in the off season.

QUESTION: Wayne asks, "Hey, I sit the dreaded 4th pick in a team of 12. As the top 3 running
backs (LJ, LT & SA) will almost definitely be snatched up, who should I pick? Thanks."

QUESTION: Adam asks, "hi, i have the 2nd pick in my draft-- I plan on going RB-RB than WR in the 3rd with the 2nd overall pick. We have a rule where you cannot draft the same position more than twice in a row-- so with that being said i plan on taking a stud WR with my third-- I see Ward-chambers and wayne being available-- who do you go with? thanks Adam"

ANSWER: I must say that's a bit of an odd rule and would agree that RB-RB would usually be the best way to draft with a few exceptions. If someone like Chad Johnson or Smith fall to the 2nd round selection, you need to take them with that pick. It also gives you the chance to take a RB in rounds 3 and 4 (to get a solid backup, if any are left). Outside of this, there is a chance someone like Holt may fall to you and would be a great addition in the top of the 3rd round. I have also seen Moss fall into the early selections of the 3rd round and may have some solid upside after you build a strong RB core. After these two (in that order) I would look at Ward or Fitzgerald to join your team. If these 4 players are gone, along with the usual studs (Harrison/S.Smith/etc) are already gone, think of taking someone like Gates or Manning if they fall here, but this should not be an issue. Chambers is a bit of risk this high though with his QB whose health is still slightly in question, if you get lucky, he may slip into the 4th and if not, it may be best to stay away from a 'semi-sleeper' this early in the draft. Enjoy either Alexander or LJ with that 2nd pick and best of luck in the rest of your draft.

Have a question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll do our best to answer it in next week's newsletter.

About This Newsletter

Complimentary Fantasy Football Advice

This newsletter is for designed to help fantasy sports fans win their leagues. Via this newsletter, you can get player rankings, sleepers, busts, cheat sheet information and learn about great fantasy football contests. We'll review mock drafts and answer your email questions.

About The Wunderdog

Fantasy Advice and Sports Picks

Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College Football, NBA, NHL & NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not gut feel. View more info about The Dog.