Fantasy Football
|
December 04, 2008
|
|
darrell,
Welcome to the the Wunderdog Fantasy Football newsletter. Over the next six weeks, we'll prepare you for your draft with our player analysis for the upcoming season.
Each week we'll dig in and analyze the key positions: Kickers, Defense, Tight Ends, Wide Receivers, Quarterbacks and Running Backs. This week we look at Kickers.
Not only will you get Wunderdog's fantasy analysis but through our partnership with Athon/Grogan's Sports, you'll get even more great analysis. Grogan's has been providing fantasy content for over 20 years so make sure you don't miss what they have to say.
Good
luck...
|
|
| |
PLACE KICKERS
Each week until mid-August we'll analyze a position. This week we look at kickers. We'll have an official cheat sheet available soon which will include our top picks but for now we'll focus rather on the surprises: sleepers and busts. We'll also share information on key players in the featured position that have moved teams and what that means to their 2006 fantasy numbers...
Key Player Movement: Adam Vinateri (Indianapolis)
What do you get when you take a football team that has one of the most feared quarterbacks and let him lead one of the most dynamic offensives, place them in an indoor stadium, and add maybe the most clutch kicker of all time? Im not really sure but it is going to be fun watching Vinateri show us all this year. While not #1 on most draft boards (give that distinction to Arizona's Neil Rackers), Vinateri is almost always taken just a few picks later. Vinateri will see his numbers jump from last year just based on extra points alone (the Colts attempted the most extra points in the league over the last two years - 115). Add that to the fact that the Colts will be in scoring position more often than the Pats this year (giving many more FG opportunities) and you have a realistic chance of Vinateri being one of the most desired fantasy football kickers in 2006.
Sleeper: Ryan Longwell (Minnesota)
In his long career, Ryan Longwell has had only one poor season... last season. Because many fantasy owners tend to only look 1 to 3 seasons back and base their drafting selections off this information, I see Longwell as a sleeper who can surely finish among the top 10 fantasy kickers this year. Again, not your top pick but someone you can likely pick up in later rounds as a great value. Longwell has a career accuracy of nearly 82% and this has been outside in the cold and snowy weather of Lambeau Field. He moves indoors now to the Metrodome (a stadium in which he has kicked well previously) and will not have to deal with the elements of the weather nearly as often. The Vikings kicked 34 FGs last year and I wouldn't be shocked if they kicked more than that this year with such a proven veteran like Longwell. If he kicks 82% this season as well, that would be 30+ FGs made (surely a number that would put him near the top of the league).
Bust: Jeff Wilkins (St. Louis)
Wilkins is playing for a team with an offense that has been "up and down" more often then most the past few years. It is hard to say exactly what you are going to get out of the Rams this year, but I do see Wilkins playing well. The team has changed around staff members and it is still unclear if Wilkins will be hurt by such movements. He is a solid kicker who may slightly fall out of the top 10 this year. I'm forecasting about 25 FGs from Wilkins this year. You may be asking yourself how a kicker ranked around 12 can be a bust. Well, it's all about where you'll draft him - what I'll call average draft position. Average draft position is the average spot players are taken in mock drafts and actual drafts which have taken place this year. Wilkins is being drafted as high as the 4th kicker overall this year and since that is way too high for him, I consider this to be a "bust"
selection. I dont see any way for him to finish that high in points. Look for Wilkins as a solid backup kicker and maybe being drafted near the end if you are still in need of a starter.
Coming soon... the Wunderdog Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet (your guide to drafting the absolute best players in the right order). Stay tuned...
Think you got game? Enter the Wunderdog Fantasy Challenge Fantasy Football contest for your change at the $5,000 grand prize! |
|
GROGANS FANTASY DRAFT TIP - PLACE KICKERS
Brought to you by Athlon/Grogan s Fantasy Football exclusively for Wunderdog Sports. Dan and Kelly Grogan are kicking off their 21st fantasy season and you can get full fantasy coverage at www.grogansports.com. Grogans offers both draft and in-season fantasy assistance and their Cheat Sheets are not just updated daily, but can be customized to your scoring system. As a Wunderdog subscriber youll receive a 20% discount of all on-line services at Athlon/Grogans. Just be sure to type in Wunderdog in the Code box.
JAY FEELY/New York Giants
When it comes to drafting a fantasy kicker, theres a tendency among fantasy owners to look no further than at last years stats to make a decision. And, certainly there are guys who have had great histories and rightfully should be taken among the early ones. But, one big season doesn't make a kicker and that brings us to Jay Feely. You can bet that after leading the league in scoring with 148 points last season his name will undoubtedly be called early, but there are plenty of reasons to be careful with him. Not to take anything away from his accomplishments, but we think Feely really capitalized on an extraordinarily high workload. Both he and Arizonas Neil Rackers led the NFL with 42 FG attempts last season with no one else garnering more than 35. To put this into even greater perspective, there have been only three kickers in the last three seasons with more than 40 opportunities (the Rams Jeff Wilkins had 42 in 2003). Feely has never been an overly accurate kicker either and this could be a significant factor if his workload dips. Although his 83% marksmanship last year wasnt bad, this guy was just a 79% kicker in 2004 and hit just 70% of his tries in 2003. Feelys risk escalates further if your league awards bonus points for distance. While his 11 for 15 performance from 40+ yards in 2005 was decent, keep in mind that the previous two years he was just 7 for 16 from this range.
DAVID AKERS/Philadelphia Eagles
Understandably, fantasy owners have an aversion to injuries and this is one reason why David
Akers stock might be down on draft day. If you remember, he suffered a torn hamstring last season and was basically limited to 12 games. Actually, he was far from 100% in most of those. Factor in the TO fiasco and Donovan McNabbs season-ending injury at mid-year and its easy to see why Akers struggled. But, dont be quick to give up on him. When healthy, Akers is solid. From 2002-2004 he was among the top 10 scorers (twice he finished among the top 5). Philly isnt afraid to use him from long distance either. In 2004 he connected on 17 of 21 attempts from 40+ yards - an extremely impressive 81% success rate. This was no fluke since he was 41 for 56 beyond the 40 in the four years leading up to last season. With a healed hamstring and a healthy McNabb back in place look for Akers name to be found back among the league leaders in 2006.
Take a look at Grogan's premium services. Remember, enter "Wunderdog" in the Code box to get a 20% discount off their normal prices. |
Have a fantasy football question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll try to answer it in next week's newsletter.
QUESTION: Jeff from Boston asks: "I like Neil Rackers and I'm thinking about being the first to draft a kicker in my league and take Neil Rackers in round 8. Think that will be a good pick? Thanks!"
ANSWER: I would say thats a bit too high, even for Rackers. One thing is for sure - Rackers is the odds on favorite to finish the season #1 among kickers. He is actually quite a bit ahead of the rest of the pack but I would suggest not jumping on a kicker until at least the round after Rackers is selected. If your heart is set on Rackers, I think you can get him a few rounds later as his average ranking (in a 12 person league) is about 110 which is the last pick in the 11th round. Personally I wouldnt take a kicker (even this one) until at least round 12. Kickers are hard to predict and as long as you get one in the top 10, they usually wont "hurt" your team. Best of luck!
QUESTION: Jjohnny88 asks, "Do you see Shayne Graham being a good sleeper pick at kicker this year?"
ANSWER: I think Graham is one of the best kickers in the league. I think he has a strong chance to top Rackers this year and finished the top in points among kickers at the end of the 2006 season. Cincinnati scores lots of points and that surely helps Graham who helped the team score 31% of their total team points last year. He is a top rated kicker on a strong team and that always translates into production.
QUESTION: Andy from Topeka asks, "
I am in a keeper league and have my choice between the two kickers I had at the end of last season, which of the two would you keep and which would you let go: Jay Feely and John Kasey? Thank you."
ANSWER: I would like to start by saying that I think Kasay is a quality kicker and though he is almost 37 years old he has a great leg and very accurate. He has an offense that moves the ball and gets a lot of chances at FGs each season. I do see him just falling short of the top 10 this year, but wouldnt be shocked if he finished just slightly inside that number. That being said, I have to make my selection Feely for a couple of reasons 1) He is yet to miss a game in the last 5 years he has played and 2) he was the top scoring kicker last year with 143 points. The Giants have such talent on both sides of the ball and not only will be scoring lots of points but also moving the ball enough to give Feely lots of chances. Look for him to continue dominating with his leg in 2006.
Have a question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll do our best to answer it in next week's newsletter. |
|
The Wunderdog Fantasy Challenge
darrell, Think you got game? Show the world and enter the WFC for a chance to win the $5,000 grand prize. Top 10 spots win and weekly prizes paid for top scoring teams.
|
|
|
About
This Newsletter
Complimentary
Fantasy Football Advice
This newlsetter
is for designed to help fantasy sports fans win their leagues. Via this newsletter, you can get player rankings, sleepers, busts, cheat sheet information and learn about great fantasy football contests. We'll review mock drafts and answer your email questions. |
About
The Wunderdog
Fantasy Advice and Sports Picks
Based on
over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed
a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College
Football, NBA, NHL & NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games.
My approach is to make educated decisions based on data,
not gut feel. View more
info about The Dog. |
Are
you getting exactly the newsletters you want?
Choose
from Fantasy Football, Sports Picks (NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball, NBA, MLB, NHL, Horse
Racing) & Poker News.
To
stop receiving this or add yourself to other sports picks
or poker newsletters, change your email preferences or view your account/order history, go to your Subscription Management Page here. |
The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk. Subscription
to this newsletter is predicated on acceptance of Wunderdog
Sports Picks website terms.
Good Luck.
The Wunderdog
Fantasy Football from freeunderdog.com
877.DOG.WINS
P.O. Box 45
Golden,
CO 80402
|
 |
