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Grogan's Fantasy Draft Tip - RUNNING BACKS
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CEDRIC BENSON/CHICAGO
Benson dashed many fantasy hopes last year when after being taken as the 4th overall selection in the '05 draft, he played a very subordinate backup role to Thomas Jones throughout the season. His only start resulted in a 50-yard effort against the Niners and ended prematurely with ankle injury in the second quarter. So, statistically, Benson offers fantasy owners little. But, his potential and the uncertainty of Jones make him a very interesting draft pick this year.

Without a doubt, Benson's role will be changing in '06. But, the real fantasy question is whether he'll take over as the Bears' featured back or join Jones in a combo backfield. Supplanting Jones won't be easy. Not only did he score nine times and run for over 1300 yards last season, but he excels at something coaches love blocking. Protecting the QB is a must for every starting NFL back and especially in Chicago where an injury-prone Rex Grossman is set to be starting at QB. Despite his 5'7" stature, Jones is one of the best in the business at picking up the blitz. That's not to say that Benson can't be good in protection. While it was one of his weaknesses last season, word has it that he has improved in this area.

Jones, however, might be doing more damage to himself than what Benson can inflict. He skipped Chicago's spring mini-camp which didn't go over well with head coach Lovie Smith. Although the camp was voluntary", you know how coaches define that word. Jones also made it no secret that he's not happy that his job is on the line especially after last year's performance. Whether you put much stock in rumors or not, insiders say that his name has come up in trade discussions on more than one occasion already.

Winning in fantasy football requires a little luck, but often times luck is made by taking chances. We think Benson is one to gamble with this year and that might require grabbing him as your no. 2 fantasy back on draft day.

WILLIS MCGAHEE/BUFFALO
McGahee provides a good illustration of how a running back's fantasy value hinges on those around him. Everyone will acknowledge the importance of the offensive line to a RB's play, but for fantasy purposes, it also helps if the quarterback is doing his job. And, that wasn't the case for McGahee last season. In bouncing back and forth between JP Losman and Kelly Holcomb, the Bills could only generate five TDs for McGahee and remember too that he had a 10-game dry spell without a score.

You'll find many fantasy owners who view McGahee as the runner who scored 13 times in '04. They'll attribute last season's decline as an aberration. But, Buffalo had veteran Drew Bledsoe at QB in '04 and as maligned he was as a fantasy player, he was better at engineering scoring drives than either Losman or Holcomb. This isn't to say that these guys can't do better, but they're also part of McGahee's risk equation.

Besides the obvious of generating scoring opportunities, McGahee needs an effective QB for a few other reasons too. He faced a stacked defensive line in most outings last season and his 3.8 yards per carry average reflected it. McGahee has not been a very explosive runner either and needs a substantial workload (20+ rushes) for him to crank out strong yardage stats. There are two ways to get your back a lot of work: (1) play good defense; (2) have a QB that can at least keep your team in a game. McGahee averaged over 25 carries in Buffalo victories last season, but just 19.2 in their losses. In fact, there were five games last season (all losses) in which McGahee failed to see more than 16 rushes.

McGahee generally doesn't catch many passes either (22 for 169 yards in '04; 28 for 178 yards in '05) so what fantasy points he delivers come primarily from what he does on the ground.

If you think the QB production will change for the better this year than you'll want to regard McGahee fairly high. We remain skeptical, however.

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Mock Draft Rounds 7 & 8
In our Mock Draft analysis we walk you through an entire mock draft during July and August. We provide analysis on why we made the moves we did and our thoughts on the draft moves of others in the league. This is based on a real mock draft we recently conducted in which we drew draft position #3. This week we'll take a look at rounds 7 and 8 of that draft. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis, rounds 3 and 4 analysis, and rounds 5 and 6 analysis from prior weeks.

Round 7
1 heywood QB Drew Bledsoe DAL
2 Team Thetford TE Heath Miller PIT
3 Wunderdog RB Fred Taylor JAC
4 OG 6 QB Jake Plummer DEN
5 Omega smegma DEF PIT Defense PIT
6 steamers DEF CAR Defense CAR
7 peaches&cream DEF TB Defense TB
8 Floggers PK Neil Rackers ARI
9 bucs DEF JAC Defense JAC
10 BKLYN ROAD DAWG DEF BAL Defense BAL
11 ballers DEF IND Defense IND
12 Firebirds2 WR Eddie Kennison KC

Best Pick in round 7: In this round there were 2 QBs, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE a Kicker (best in the league) and 6 team Def's. I guess the best pick is the Kicker because I feel Rackers to be the best kicker going into 2006. Another nice pick is Indy who I feel will be a great Def this year and to get them after so many other team Def's were taken is a nice addition. All and all though, I would say this was a bad round for at least half of these teams. You always want to start these trends and never want to follow (if you can help it). We are in round 7 and team defenses are being taken over so many other quality positions. Unless they are the Bears, I feel this is a bit early for more than 6 Defenses to be taken (through 7 rounds).

Worst Pick in round 7: See Above. --Be a Trend Setter, not a Trend Follower.

My Pick in round 7: The more I think about this pick, the more I am not pleased with it. As I was in the middle of the draft, I realized that there were so few RBs of any quality left and as long as he stays healthy, he has a chance to put up a few numbers. This was more of a pick to keep away from other teams though, rather than produce on my team (after I already have quite a few quality RBs). The main thing people should take away from this pick, is that there are only a handful of RB's that produce, and the fact that you must start 2 per league (at least) puts them at quite a high value. Fred Taylor, if he stays healthy, becomes a good player to trade or use as a backup on by weeks. My worst pick of the 7 rounds, but a decent pick from a strategy stand point.

Round 8
1 Firebirds2 TE L.J. Smith PHI
2 ballers RB Curtis Martin NYJ
3 BKLYN ROAD DAWG PK Adam Vinatieri IND
4 bucs PK Shayne Graham CIN
5 Floggers RB Deuce McAllister NO
6 peaches&cream PK Jay Feely NYG
7 steamers RB Chris Brown TEN
8 Omega smegma PK Lawrence Tynes KC
9 OG 6 RB Cedric Benson CHI
10 Wunderdog WR Donte Stallworth NO
11 Team Thetford WR Jerry Porter OAK
12 heywood WR Terry Glenn DAL

Best Pick in round 8: Finally we have a quality pick, Cedric Benson by 'OG 6' with the 9th pick in this round. As the preseason begins, it did not take long for the Bears to move Benson up the depth chart and it looks as though there is a strong chance he will be starting in week 1. He is the 4th overall pick in the 2005 draft and surely the back of the future for the Bears. The will be happy to pound the ball up the middle with a large back like Benson this season (as long as he keeps the starting job over Jones). With all the upside he has if he plays 16 games this year, this is simply a great value pick which was found just a few spots shy of the 100th selection in this draft.

Worst Pick in round 8: Almost like last round, Kickers are being drafted much too early in this round. You do not have to draft a full team through rounds 8 or 9, you can wait to pick up players like a kicker (where the 1st and 12th usually don't finish far apart by years end) until much later rounds. That being said, Tynes would be the worst pick so far. Not only is he a kicker, but he is a poor kicker who is unproven. He was thought to have lots of upside last year, but did nothing with it. He should not be drafted here in any league, if drafted as a starting Kicker at all. If you like the upside of Tynes being on KC, take him as a backup, not a starter.
--side note, C. Martin may be a poor pick, now that the latest reports say he may not play this season, but at the time of the draft, this was unknown--

My Pick in round 8: I very much enjoy playing with people who take so many defenses and kickers at such early rounds. It gives me the chance to load up on all the other key positions. I took the best player on the board at this point, D. Stallworth. He is a solid pick with his new QB situation and playing across from Horn (who may not have many years left in the tank), look for Brees to make a point to connect with Stallworth as this may be a tandem for the next few years (along with R. Bush). Has the best upside of the WR's left on the board, an easy pick for my team in this situation.

In next week's newsletter, we'll look at rounds 8 and 9. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis, rounds 3 and 4 analysis, and rounds 5 and 6 analysis.

Have a fantasy football question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll try to answer it in next week's newsletter.

QUESTION: Tim from CO asks, "I know it is important in the running game to have quality backups (such as L. Johnson and P. Holmes last year and years past). Who are some of the top RBs that should be drafted as "groups" this year. Thanks."

QUESTION: Nicole asks, "I am in an auction league and was wondering if you could please rank the following backs (in terms of value), thank you. Brian Westbrook, Domanick Davis and Corey Dillon."

QUESTION: Lew asks, "HEY GUYS: I HAVE THE BLESSING/CURSE OF THE FIRST PICK IN OUR FANTASY LEAGUE. THE WAY I SEE IT, EACH OF THE "BIG 3" HAVE ISSUES:
1) LARRY JOHNSON--NEW HEAD COACH, NEW OC, WILLIE ROAF RETIRING.
2) SHAUN ALEXANDER--NO LONGER HAS STEVE HUTCHINSON TO RUN BEHIND.
3) LADAINIAN TOMLINSON--NEW QB SITUATION, INJURY PRONE.
WITH THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS, WHO DO YOU GUYS LIKE AT NO. 1?
REALLY ENJOY YOUR INFO--THANKS!"

ANSWER: I would say that if you had your choice of where to draft, 3rd is the best spot, you get 1 of these 3 players and then have the earliest pick in the 2nd round of these 3 teams. That being said, it is best to have one of the top 3 picks vs the 4th, so it may look like its a cruse, but in reality, be glad you get to have one of the 3 most dominating backs/players in all of fantasy football. LT has been one of the most proven RBs in his young career and I don't see him slowing down anytime soon. The QB situation does create a bit of a problem and it may help teams put more in the box against him, but he has faced that before and it shouldn't be an issue. He may not catch as many passes with the new QB though and that could hurt his value just slightly enough to drop him to 3rd on my list. If you believe the cover of those on the Madden Box will get hurt or not produce, stay away form S. Alexander, for those of you who realize Madden has nothing to do with fantasy football, take this guy early in your draft.He may be the safest pick you can find. Great production, great QB, strong WRs, one of the better Defenses, and should get more carries than almost anyone else in the league. Since I play this game to win, and not play it safe, I would take S. Alexander 2nd (but can surely understand someone taking him 1st, if LJ has too many question marks for your liking). I guess its clear that LJ is my top pick for 2006. The loss of Roaf hurts his value and now with this news, there is a chance he could drop to the number 2 spot, but if you translate last years numbers into a full season of playing, LJ would have earned over 2,400 yards rushing and nearly 3,000 yards total with 30 TDs and almost 50 receptions. These numbers would break tons of records and with upside like this (and P.Holmes all but out of the picture), it is just too hard to pass up on a player who has a chance to put up numbers anywhere near this. The nice thing for you, is that you one of these 3 backs... no matter who you take, they will not make or break your season, the rest of your draft will be important too. My pick is LJ because of his huge upside, but the more i think about the loss of Roaf for KC, the more i start to consider the "safe pick" of S. Alexander. Can't go wrongwith either one. Have a great draft and please keep sending great questions.

QUESTION: Hockey28 asks, "Do you think thatWestbrook(me) for TO is a good trade? Just from a value point. Thanks."

ANSWER: That is a very interesting question and has taken me a day or two to think about. It would have been very helpful if you included some sort of list of your players and/or explaining your scoring system. That aside, I would like to start by saying that in a regular draft, the odds are that Westbrook is going to be drafted first (mainly because people are in need of at least 2 quality RBs before they start to look at WR's since WR's are much deeper this and most years). With that said, the odds are that in an auction draft, TO may cost a few more bucks to draft because he is one of the top WRs in the league and there is surely a drop off between him and the next group of wide-outs. So, I am going to assume that you have 3 RBs with somegood value, or you would not be asking such a question (if, for example, you have a top RB, Westbrook and your 3rd RB is T. Bell from Den, then there is no way you could do this trade for ANY WR in the league. On the other hand, if you have someone like K. Jones or J.Lewis, or even Dunn, then this is at least an option to upgrade at WR). I am guessing the reason you want the value of TO is not only because he is one of the top WRs but maybe your league requires you to start 3 WRs rather than 2 RBs and/or because you do not have such quality WRs at this point. If, however, you have 3 WRs who are all serviceable and you lack a core of RBs to give away a pick like Westbrook, even if you have no stud WR's you would need to keep Westbrook and not take a chance on TO with his new team in Dallas. In closing I would say that if you are even thinking about this trade, it is because you have enough RB support to make the deal, in which case I think you should do it. A new addition (you may not have known about when this trade was offered) is that Westbrook has a slight foot injury. Nothing major but has not been in practice the last day or two and his status for their next preseason game vs Cleveland is unclear. If this trade is still on the table and you have the ability to still take it, I would do so quick. Thanks for the great question and best of luck on your season!

Have a question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll do our best to answer it in next week's newsletter.

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Fantasy Advice and Sports Picks

Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College Football, NBA, NHL & NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not gut feel. View more info about The Dog.