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Grogan's Fantasy Draft Tip - WIDE RECEIVERS
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REGGIE BROWN/PHILADELPHIA
Although he has had just a handful of starts in '05, is second-year man Reggie Brown ready to assume the responsibility of being Philly's featured wide receiver this season? And, more importantly, can he deliver good fantasy value? Judging from his play in the latter half of last season, we'd say "yes".

Brown was literally thrust into the no. 1 WR role last year following the decision to suspend Terrell Owens in game number eight. Brown's stats over the final nine weeks - 34 catches for 463 yards and 4 TDs - weren't bad, but keep in mind he only had Donovan McNabb as his QB for less than two full games. McNabb's groin injury in game nine sidelined him for the remainder of the year and the Eagles were forced to go with backup Mike McMahon and, on occasion, third-stringer Koy Detmer.

We also like Brown because he's in a good (fantasy) situation with Philadelphia who's desperate for WRs. Here's what they've got: Greg Lewis has had some chances, but has yet to materialize as a reliable starter; Todd Pinkston has been a starter in the past, but he's attempting a return from a ruptured Achilles tendon; and newcomer Jabar Gaffney (from Houston) is better suited as a slot receiver. This leaves Brown and what appears to be a terrific opportunity.

He was the Eagles' second round pick in the '05 draft (10th WR taken) and, although still young, grew up fast last year. At 6'1, 195 lbs, he has decent size and showed explosiveness with a 56-yard TD catch against the Redskins last season. He'll likely be available when you're in the market for a no. 3 fantasy wide out and we recommend taking the chance with him. Again, last year's stats weren't bad, but Brown can be a much stronger contributor with a healthy McNabb.

SANTANA MOSS/WASHINGTON
It might be tough to pass on last year's runner-up in receiving yardage, but is Santana Moss the real deal? In addition to finishing second to Steve Smith with 1483 yards in '05, Moss also showed excellent big play ability topping 100 yards on five occasions three times he eclipsed the 150-yard mark. While his nine TD catches were a little on the slim side for a fantasy elite receiver, that total still wasn't bad.

Our beef with Moss wasn't about his totals, but rather how he arrived at them. All nine of his scores came in just five games with three TDs coming in one outing versus the Giants. His 743 yards through the first 6 games was impressive, but the 740 over the final 10 weeks were pretty run-of-the-mill. So, you probably have guessed that Moss' consistency, or lack of, is what concerns us.

The addition of receiver Brandon Lloyd could help Moss by drawing away some of the defensive coverage, but then again, Lloyd will take his bite out of the passing stats too. Last year, Washington wide receivers, aside from Moss, contributed exactly zero TDs and all of 511 yards, but expect that to change. The offensively creative Al Saunders, who Washington lured away from Kansas City during the off-season, will have a big hand in the play calling. QB Mark Brunell won't be mistaken for Peyton Manning, but is a savvy veteran and is not a hindrance to Moss. However, backup Jason Campbell has little experience should Brunell go down.

Despite the negativity, we still think Moss can be a bona fide no. 1 starting fantasy WR, but he comes with some risk and he's not one we'll chase with an early pick. He's better off considered late among the first level starters.

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Mock Draft Rounds 5 & 6
In our Mock Draft analysis we walk you through an entire mock draft during July and August. We provide analysis on why we made the moves we did and our thoughts on the draft moves of others in the league. This is based on a real mock draft we recently conducted in which we drew draft position #3. This week we'll take a look at rounds 4 and 5 of that draft. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis and rounds 3 and 4 analysis.

Round 5
1 heywood WR Joey Galloway TB
2 Team Thetford DEF CHI Defense CHI
3 Wunderdog RB Reuben Droughns CLE
4 OG 6 WR Andre Johnson HOU
5 Omega smegma TE Tony Gonzalez KC
6 steamers TE Todd Heap BAL
7 peaches&cream WR Javon Walker DEN
8 Floggers RB Joseph Addai IND
9 bucs TE Chris Cooley WAS
10 BKLYN ROAD DAWG RB Tatum Bell DEN
11 ballers QB Daunte Culpepper MIA
12 Firebirds2 WR Deion Branch NE

Best Pick in Round 5: While its a toss up between J. Addai and D. Branch, I have to pick #8 Floggers selection of RB Joseph Addai. The reason for this is that he is one of the only solid RBs left to start on a team at this point and after R. Droughnswas selected, Floggers had little choice and needed to get a RB here with lots of upside. Not sure how Addai will fit in with Manning and the boys, but it is known that rookie RB's have the chance to produce in their first year (unlike most rookie WRs). With his upside, this has to be the best selection in this round.

Worst Pick in Round 5: This round had lots of TE's taken and I think because of that Cooley was taken out of position and should not have been drafted this early (same as a few other TEs selected here).But, I don't think that was the worst pick. I would say that #7peaches&cream taking Javon Walker is the worst here. It is out of position and if there was a need for WR, they could have taken many more that were higher on the list. Walker looks good in camp and may moving higher in some drafts, but the middle of the 5th is still much too high for him.

My Pick in Round 5: I have my eye on Tony Gonzalezbut its a bit early to take him here, I am also looking at Branch, Horn and A. Johnson all at WR and R. Droughnsis an option too. From this list, I decided Gonzo would most likely be gone in the next round, but there were a handful of other TEs I can take later. Since there are only a few RBs left and a handful of WRs, I had to take a chance that one of those WRs or TE may be left in round 6 but was pretty sure Droughns would be gone by then. J Addai is an option too if everyone else is gone or maybe D. Foster, but I took a chance and hoped it would pay off.

Round 6
1 Firebirds2 RB Thomas Jones CHI
2 ballers TE Randy McMichael MIA
3 BKLYN ROAD DAWG TE Jason Witten DAL
4 bucs QB Trent Green KC
5 Floggers QB Jake Delhomme CAR
6 peaches&cream TE Alge Crumpler ATL
7 steamers RB DeShaun Foster CAR
8 Omega smegma WR Derrick Mason BAL
9 OG 6 WR Lee Evans BUF
10 Wunderdog WR Joe Horn NO
11 Team Thetford RB Dominic Rhodes IND
12 heywood WR Mark Clayton BAL

Best Pick in Round 6:As the RB's keep getting drafted later and later, there are fewer from which to select I worry if he can make it through the whole season but with #7 picksteamers tookRB DeShaun Foster. He plays on Carolina - a team that likes to run the ball and their backs surely get it done. Its unclear what role DeAngelo Williams will play, though he should be taken by steamers as a backup now that he has selected Foster. A good player to grab in the 6th as he would have been gone earlier had the other teams focused on RBs earlier (as found in many other drafts).

Worst Pick in Round 6: There are some good QB's left on the board, but too many to start worrying and picking them up too quickly. That's what it looks like bucs did with the 4th pick when they selectedQB Trent Green.He surely gets the job done in most leagues butwill finish just slightly out of the top 10 (overall QB's) and because of that, there is no reason to take him here in the 6th. I like the WRs that will be aroundGreen andthink he will still produce has he hasdone so many years in the past.The problem is that this is a running team and Green is known for lots of passing yards but few passing TDs. A solid QB to have on your team, but not in round 6. Many otherplayers need to be taken here as Green(or people like him) could be drafted at QBquite a few rounds later.

My Pick in Round 6: It looks as though my gamble has paid off; I got Joe Horn with the 10th pick of this round. I was in need of another quality WR and am very glad that Horn slipped all the way to the bottom of the 6th for me to grab. I will add him to R. Moss and my solid RB core to continue building around these positions as others are worried about their TE's, QBs, and even a team Def was taken (though Chi should end up top of the league). I will be looking to those positions in the next round or two... hard to pass up on Horn here though, should be a nice addition and once A. Crumpler was taken, I knew it was time to hold off on TE's and focus on the right time to get the best value from my sleeper TE as I would hope to get in a much later round and use these middle rounds to focus on other needs.

In next week's newsletter, we'll look at rounds 7 and 8. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis and rounds 3 and 4 analysis.

Have a fantasy football question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll try to answer it in next week's newsletter.

QUESTION: Jake asks, "Which Arizona WR would you draft first, L. Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin?"

ANSWER: This is a hard question to answer. I don't see both of these WR's finishing in the top 10 at season's end, but I surely see one of them there (if not top 5). Out of this group, I would say Larry Fitz is going to draw more coverage after his dominating 2005 season, which would tend to leave Boldin getting an easier match-up, but i have a hard time seeing Larry not continuing on his dominating path. If I had to pick one, it would be Fitzgerald and take my chances. One thing I wouldn't do is pick both.

QUESTION: Steve from Utah asks, "Is Jevon Walker going to be the top WR in the Denver passing game?"

ANSWER: Not at first. Rod Smith has put in his time there and will not be taken out so quickly by the young Walker. I feel he should be taken later than most have drafted him simply due to his injury last year. But if he is healthy, he can surely produce. This is a running football team and that is their main focus, but Plummer has a strong arm and can move the ball around, just remember that he has a solid connection with Smith and that will be his main target again this year.

QUESTION: Bobby in Charlotte asks, "Is Keyshawn going to be a stud as a new wide out on the Panthers? Smith gets all the double teams and no one is going to be covering K.Johnson, don't you think?"

ANSWER: Sadly, I don't think so. Smith is the man and he will continue to be the man. If anything, I think Johnson will take a bit of coverage away from Smith since he will still command some respect from around the league. I see this being a running team as they have been the past few years with the exception of Smith.

Have a question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll do our best to answer it in next week's newsletter.

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Fantasy Advice and Sports Picks

Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College Football, NBA, NHL & NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not gut feel. View more info about The Dog.