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Grogan's Fantasy Draft Tip - TIGHT ENDS
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LJ SMITH/PHILADELPHIA
Whether it's by design or the fact that it's too difficult to pass up opportunities elsewhere, it's easy to miss out on the big names at tightend during a draft. You know Antonio Gates will be grabbed early and despite just 2 TDs last season, Tony Gonzalez won't last long (some fantasy owners are very forgiving). Shockey, Crumpler, Heap, Witten; you have to make a concerted effort to get any of these guys if that's your hope.

However, let's assume you don't land an elite guy. One player we really like this season is Philly's LJ Smith. While he's not an unknown at the position by any means, last year's three scores probably will cause him to slide down many draft lists. But, Smith could make for a nice pickup once the big guns are off the board.

For starters, the Eagles need him to contribute heavily. With Terrell Owens gone, the receiving corps has more questions about it than Jimmy Hoffa's disappearance. Reggie Brown is slated to assume the featured receiver role a tall order for a second year guy; Todd Pinkston is attempting a return from a torn Achilles tendon; Jabar Gaffney and Greg Lewis won't strike fear into many defenders' hearts. This leaves RB Brian Westbrook, who if all goes well, will likely lead all backs in receiving and Smith.

Here's why Smith looks to have more upside than many might think. He actually was on track for a pretty good season last year. Through the first nine games he had 42 catches, scored three times and had amassed 390 yards. But, it was also around this time that the bottom dropped out of the Eagles' offense. TO was suspended for the remainder of the season and don't forget, Owens was the focal point of the passing game the first seven games scoring six times and collecting 47 passes. Week nine was also when Donovan McNabb went down. Things were much different for Smith in the latter half of the season. In the final seven games with Mike McMahon and sometimes Koy Detmer at QB, Smith had just 19 receptions for 265 yards and failed to score.

Philadelphia needs Smith to be a bigger factor this year and a healthy McNabb is the first step in making that happen.

JERRAMY STEVENS/SEATTLE
Now, you have to admit that if you didn't know we were discussing Stevens, you would have been shocked to learn that he scored five times in Seattle's final seven games last year. Three of those contests occurred in the playoffs (2 TDs), but nevertheless, this was an impressive run. But, does this strong finish mean great upside for him in '06? Some fantasy owners might think so, but we're not convinced of it.

In addition to the late scoring flurry, Stevens also finished the season with a respectable 554 yards. He did little scoring in the first 12 weeks though (2 TDs). His 45 total receptions were bettered by thirteen other tightends too. But, statistics aside, there's more to consider when evaluating Stevens for this year.

There are a couple of things to be concerned about and the first is his health. Although he played in all 19 of Seattle's games last year, Stevens didn't make it through the season unscathed. A knee problem surfaced late and it lingered long enough to keep him out of the team's recent spring mini-camp. While the Seahawks expect him to be ready for training camp, he still has to show he's 100% and can stay that way.

The other concern for this season is Stevens' role in light of the anticipated return of Itula Mili. Don't be too quick to dismiss Mili. True, he missed the '05 with an intestinal disorder, but he was the team's starter in '04. The argument can be made that Stevens' numbers last year were inflated because of Mili's absence.

As far as a rise in Stevens' stats in '06, we just don't see it. He'll be impacted greatly if Seattle returns to the two tightend formation.

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Mock Draft Rounds 3 & 4
In our Mock Draft analysis we walk you through an entire mock draft during July and August. We provide analysis on why we made the moves we did and our thoughts on the draft moves of others in the league. This is based on a real mock draft we recently conducted in which we drew draft position #3. This week we'll take a look at rounds 3 and 4 of that draft. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis.

Round 3
1 heywood TE Antonio Gates SD
2 Team Thetford RB Willie Parker PIT
3 Wunderdog WR Randy Moss OAK
4 OG 6 RB Kevin Jones DET
5 Omega smegma WR Anquan Boldin ARI
6 steamers QB Tom Brady NE
7 peaches&cream WR Hines Ward PIT
8 Floggers TE Jeremy Shockey NYG
9 bucs WR Chris Chambers MIA
10 BKLYN ROAD DAWG WR Santana Moss WAS
11 ballers WR Reggie Wayne IND
12 Firebirds2 WR Darrell Jackson SEA

Best Pick in Round 3: Team haywood took Gates at TE with their top pick of this round. I would not have taken him with the 3rd pick because I feel there was more value on this board in the early parts of the third round. That being said, he is the best TE in the league by far and has been going in the 2nd in many drafts. To get him in the 3rd round (even though its the 1st pick) is still getting value as Gates can rack up as many points as some teams 2nd or 3rd WRs. A solid pick at this point, he just has to hope this early TE selection didn't cost him in depth at other areas as the draft continues.

Worst Pick in Round 3: With the 6th pick in third round, steamers took a QB, Tom Brady, andI feel this was a mistake. There have been a few more QB's taken than I expected at this point (mainly this year since QB number 2 through 7 is up in the air) and even though Brady puts up solid numbers, it isn't as though he has a "break out" year on the way. "Steamers" could have gotten a QB of almost the same value in at least the next round (if not Brady himself) and Ii feel this was a reach. This team had many quality WR's and a few RB's left on the board that should have been taken before jumping on a QB in the 3rd round.

My Pick in Round 3: With the 3rd pick I took Randy Moss and feel it was a "must" for my position. I would have very much enjoyed adding someone like K. Jones to my roster and grabbing a strong-hold with 3 very top RBs but when Moss fell to this spot, I felt I had to take him so that I could get at least one stud WR to build around. Granted, Moss is not valued as he was a few years ago as a top 3 stud, but he is surely in the top 10 if not top5 and with his gifted ability as an athlete, surely has the potential to do great things, even without a solid offensive system. This was not my first choice, but I also did not expect Moss to fall to me here. Since he did, I had to take him and did not want to see him taken 3 picks later to improve any team but mine.

Round 4
1 Firebirds2 QB Donovan McNabb PHI
2 ballers RB Corey Dillon NE
3 BKLYN ROAD DAWG RB Warrick Dunn ATL
4 bucs WR Plaxico Burress NYG
5 Floggers RB Jamal Lewis BAL
6 peaches&cream RB Chester Taylor MIN
7 steamers WR Roy Williams DET
8 Omega smegma QB Eli Manning NYG
9 OG 6 WR Donald Driver GB
10 Wunderdog QB Marc Bulger STL
11 Team Thetford WR TJ Houshmandzedeh CIN
12 heywood RB Reggie Bush NO

Best Pick in Round 4: With the #7 pick in this round,"Steamers" took Roy Williams from Detroit. There were a handful of "correct" picks in this round I feel, most people did not get anyextra value for their selections but most did not go below their value either. This is a good group of people that you would expect to go in or around this round. That aside, Roy Williams has been drafted after afew people who were actually ranked below him. This is aquality WR with lotsof upside (with his new QB) that could put up number and would make a great tandem with another solid WR. This isn't as good as some past rounds, but I feel the best value of any other pick in this round.

Worst Pick in Round 4: This is a tough call with such a mix of talent and QB's being taken earlier than they should, but Eli Manning (though with a lot of upside) is a bit of a reach in the middle of this round forOmega smegma.I am sure he was worried about not getting a QB in later rounds, but this was not the top QB left on the board. Unless he was interested in the top QB on the board (or maybe 2nd) he should have let this pick pass, added to another area of his team and chance that the top QB would be taken, leaving him a chance to grab Eli (who he wanted) at the top/middle of the following round. I feel Eli will have a strong season, but going over all the selections (with the exception of R. Bush, who is holding out but has tons of upside if he signs a contract soon), there was really no other player taken "out of turn" that could be the 'worst' pick of this round. I feel this was the most solid round of the draft up to this point.

My Pick in Round 4: With the 10th pick in this round I took Marc Bulger. While this was not the pick I wanted at this time, it was something I had to do (almost like the 3rd round but a different situation). I surely like to "set" the trend in the draft (ie: taking the 1st or 2nd TE and watching everyone in the next round or two hurry to take a TE as well). I am almost in the middle of the QB selections. A few top QB's have been taken, but based on my rankings, I noticed that the top QB has been taken (P. Manning) and now with his brother Eli being drafted as well has Matt Hasselbeck (from the 3rd group on my cheat sheet) left me to realize that there was only one QB left in my 2nd group of QBs (Bulger) as well as only one left in the my 3rd group. So if I didn't take one now, I wasn't sure if I could wait till the early part of the 5th round and hope they are both there. Lucky for me, there were no stud WR's or RBs or TEs left that I was interested in, so it was a perfect time to grab a QB with a solid upside in value.

In next week's newsletter, we'll look at rounds 5 and 6. If you missed it, check out my rounds 1 and 2 analysis.

Have a fantasy football question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll try to answer it in next week's newsletter.

QUESTION: Alex asks "I have the 11th pick (12 person draft) and was really hoping to get Gates on my team this year. Do you think there is any chance I can get him in the 3rd round or do I have to use my second round pick on him?"

ANSWER: Let me start by saying Gates is a great player to have on your team and having him is like adding an additional WR (from a scoring perspective) rather than a TE. That being said, the 13th overall pick in your draft is too early for a TE (no matter who it is). Don't get too caught up in Gates' star value. You will have players like Westbrook, Moss and Palmer to pick from at that spot and those players are valuable as well. I doubt Gates will fall to you at pick 35, but that is only because I have seen him overvalued in many of my mock drafts. He has been drafted in the middle/late 2nd and early 3rd rounds. If he falls to you in the 3rd round, take him, because I would say take him and you are getting great value. Your 2nd round pick (in this draft) should be focused on getting a 2nd RB and you may need to wait until the middle or later rounds to grab a TE. Good luck!

QUESTION: James from Utah asks "Who is going to start in Arizona: Leonard Pope or Adam Bergen?"

ANSWER: That is still unclear at this point and my advice is to stay away from both of these players. The ball will be passed around to many targets before it goes to a TE in Arizona this year and even if it does, it looks as though these two are more likely to split time rather than be divided into pure "backup and starter" roles. That being said, if I had to pick one, I would be Pope. I don't think he is ready to be a quality producer at this time in the NFL but has more upside than Bergen.

QUESTION: Ken asks, "Who is a better TE to take in this years draft, Alex Smith from Tampa Bay or Bubba Franks from Green Bay? Thanks!"

ANSWER: I like Alex Smith.I like B. Frank's ability to catch TD's and surely he should be a target of Favre's (as he is every year). But Smith has more upside this year as he has some NFL experience under his belt and is more familiar with what is expected of him in Tampa Bay. Gruden likes Smith and while he does not usually get his TE's involved enough to have huge fantasy value, the potential is there. I am not too high on either of these TEs to be honest (odds are you can get someone better in your draft - at least to start), but if you had to pick one, I would go with Smith. Best of luck.

Have a question? Reply to this email with your question and we'll do our best to answer it in next week's newsletter.

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Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL & College Football, NBA, NHL & NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not gut feel. View more info about The Dog.