NHL Hockey
Premium Edition
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April 21, 2006
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darrell,
We finished the regular season on a 30-4 run over the last month. Dime players pocketed over $20,000 during that stretch. Three picks tonight.
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Keep your head up and stick on the ice, darrell!

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Game: Edmonton at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Detroit -272
I know, big spread. But, worth it. We have the Presidents' Trophy winning Detroit Red Wings at home in this one. They accumplated the most wins and most points in the league. And, this is a team that knows how to win in the summer. The Oilers actually beat Detroit in the first two matchups this year (before Detroit evened the series) so the Wings won't be taking them lightly here. Detroit won eight of their last nine games to end the regular season. How good are they? They scored 3.7 goals per game and spread that scoring across all three quarters (getting slightly stronger as the game wears on). They have virtually no weaknesses as are solid in all aspects of the game. Edmonton can score, but not like Detroit. And, their defense isn't nearly as good. One glaring problem for Edmonton is the fact that they allow 12% shots-on-goal percentage. They are a .500 team and they are entering the Lions Den here tonight. Back the best team in the league here with the confidence of knowing that #1 seeds at home in the NHL playoffs are nearly a sure thing.
Game: Tampa Bay at Ottawa (7:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Ottawa -250
Tampa Bay wishes it were 2004 all over again. They took home the last Stanley Cup and a repeat here is all but guaranteed not to happen. Not when they have to go to Ottawa to face one of the best teams in the East. Ottawa held opponents to a conference-low 183 goals during the regular season. They own the Lightning having won 18 of the last 21 in the matchup including eight straight. Tampa Bay barely made the playoffs and their defense is horrible for a playoff team. They allowed 3.2 goals per game on the season and limped into the playoffs losing four of their last five games, getting beaten in those games by an average of 2 goals per game (2.6 to 4.6)! Ottawa beat opponents by an average score of 4.0 to 2.3 at home this season. Lay the heavy wood on the motivated, much better team here.
Game: San Jose at Nashville (8:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 1 star on Nashville +104
The Nashville predators are getting no respect here. While all other home teams this weekend are -150 or higher favorites, Nashville is a home underdog in this one. Consider that they had the better record than their opponent today. They scored 3.5 goals per game at home while giving up just 2.3. Their opponent actually had a negative win margin on the road this year (scored 3.0 per game while allowing 3.2). Nashville finished extremely strong having won their last six games by a combined score of 22-7. Sure, Tomas Vokoun is out. But, Chris Mason has done very well since taking over. Seven goals in the last six games including two shutouts? That's pretty good in my book. It should be close but I give the edge to the home squad here - a team that is 21-3 in the second of back-to-back home games this season.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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The Wunderdog
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