NHL Hockey
Premium Edition
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April 16, 2006
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darrell,
Perfect 3-0 again last night to push the streak up to 26 wins and 3 losses. Three more picks today.
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Keep your head up and stick on the ice, darrell!

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Game: Philadelphia at New Jersey (1:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 stars on New Jersey -152
Nine straight now for New Jersey. The Flyers have traded wins and losses for seven straight games and the pattern says loss today. Philly is just 10-20 this season against good offensive teams like NJ (those that score 2.85+ goals/game). New Jersey meanwhile is 14-4 in the second half of the season vs. winning teams. NJ has been scoring 4 per game and allowing 2.4 over their last five games. Devils here.
Game: Toronto at Buffalo (5:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Toronto +140
Sure Toronto has missed the playoffs. But, doesn't seem to have affected their play. They have won four straight and eight of their last ten. They face an also-hot Buffalo squad that has won five of six. Home Favorites of -200 or less having won 3 of their last 4 games facing an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games are just 19-30 (39%) since 1996. Also, road teams off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% are 35-23 (60%) in the second half of the season over the last 5 seasons. Toronto has a chance here and there's good value on them at +140.
Game: Phoenix at St. Louis (7:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 stars on Phoenix -135
The Blues won 2-1 at home against Edmonton on April 9th. That's the good news for them. The bad news? They've lost the other 16 games they've played between mid-March and mid April. It doesn't get any worse than that. Phoenix hasn't done much better having lost six of seven but St. Louis has clearly packed it in earlier and they are the much worse team. Home teams that have been outscored by 0.2+ goals/game in the third period after scoring 2 goals or less in 5 straight games are just 8-27 (23%) over the last 5 seasons. And, losing home underdogs that have lost 3+ consecutive games are just 24-67 (26%) over the last 5 seasons. St. Louis here.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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The Wunderdog
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