NHL Hockey
Premium Edition
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February 2, 2006
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darrell,
Anaheim failed for us last night but still 25-11 this year. Three picks tonight, two of which I really like.
Keep your head up and stick on the ice, darrell!

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****BOSTON -164 over Montreal (7:05 Eastern)
While even overall on the season, Montreal is 2-5 in their last seven while 7-2 in their last nine. Montreal's off a 8-2 beating at the hands of Carolina and their confidence is very low right now. Boston is just the opposite, feeling good after a 5-0 win over Ottawa on Monday. I like the momemtum to carry into tonight's game. Home teams off a blowout win by 4 goals or more vs. an opponent that has allowed 3 goals or more 3 straight games are 55-19 (74%) since 1996. Montreal's offense is pretty good but Boston is 15-7 this season since the mid-way point vs. teams that score 2.85+ goals per game. Montreal is just 9-18 on the road this year and their defense is allowing 4.8 goals per game over their last five games. Boston is winning by 1.4 goals per game over their last five. Momentum play here. Boston for four stars.
*****NY Rangers -119 over NY ISLANDERS (7:05 Eastern)
Now here's another hot team - the Islanders. Well, at least hot for them. With a win, they get their longest winning streak of the season. Problem is, it would only be four games. They haven't managed more than three in a row all season. These teams have split the four earlier games this season and I like the Rangers to bring the Islanders back down to earth. See, the Islanders are coming of a win and they are just 27% after a win (6-16) this season including 0-5 if that win was at home and they are at home again. They simply can't put back-to-back performances together. And, they are 0-8 at home this season facing a team that beat them earlier. The Rangers are 30-23 while the Islanders are just 23-28. The Rangers are 8-2 vs. their cross-town rival over the past three seasons and 12-8 vs. division rivals, winning by 1.1 goals on average. The Islanders are just 7-8 in-division losing by an average of 0.7 goals per game. I could go on and on about the stats but most favore the Rangers. Road favorites off a game allowing 1 goal or less now facing an opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more are 34-8 (81%) since 1996. And, winning road favorites at -100 to -150 after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 23-7 (77%) in the second half of the season over the last 5 seasons when facing a losing team. Love the Rangers here at the low price for five stars.
**EDMONTON -255 over Columbus (9:05 Eastern)
Columbus has suprisingly pulled off four straight wins but now they go to Edmonton where they have only won once in nine tries. Edmonton has already won two from Columbus this season and tonight they get help from a couple of new trade acquisitions, Jaroslav Spacek and Dick Tarnstrom. Despite their recent success, let us not forget that over the past ten years, Columbus is 13-66 on the road vs. winning teams and 5-38 vs. teams that score 2.85+ goals per game (Edmonton averages 3.3 and has scored 3.8 per game over their last five games). Road underdogs that have been outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game are just 11-40 (22%) off an overtime win since 1996. Columbus has played some good hockey of late but they'll be very hard pressed to continue it tonight. Two stars on the Oilers.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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