darrell,

Whose hotter entering the playoffs? The Redskins or The Wunderdog? Well, the Skins. But, we do enter the playoffs off a 5-2 week and 73% (8-3) over the last two weeks of the regular season. Things also went perfectly last week for the season team win totals picks with Atlanta losing and KC winning. So on those picks, which we made back in August, we went 4-1 on the official picks and 5-2 on the leans.

Official Picks (4-1)
-Philadelphia UNDER 11.5 Wins - WIN
-Tampa Bay OVER 7.5 Wins - WIN
-Atlanta UNDER 9.5 Wins - WIN
-Kansas City OVER 9 Wins - WIN
-Buffalo OVER 8 Wins - LOSS

Leans (5-2)
-San Diego OVER 8.5 Wins - WIN
-Minnesota UNDER 9.5 Wins - WIN
-Oakland UNDER 8 Wins - WIN
-Denver OVER 8.5 Wins - WIN
-St. Louis UNDER 8.5 Wins - WIN
-Jacksonville UNDER 8.5 Wins - LOSS
-Dallas UNDER 8.5 Wins - LOSS

My Week NFL Wilcard Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

Wunderdog's NFL Playoffs Approach

I just love the NFL postseason. Although there is obviously an opportunity to do well during the regular season, the NFL playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily with underdogs as I do during the regular season, I spread it around in the post-season. In fact, I actually lean towards the favorites in my picks. Why is that you ask? Here are some of the reasons:
 
1. THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP IN THE NFL PLAYOFFS

In the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win, and cover the spread. Identifying the best team is not always easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the postseason. There are a myriad of stats to look at including straight-up record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc). Look at yards per play and yards per point. I utilize a system that weights statistics based on their historical predictive properties.

2. THERE IS NO “NEXT WEEK” FOR LOSERS… AKA THE “RUN UP THE SCORE” SYNDROME

In the regular season we can spot situations where a favorite is poised to be upset by a supposedly lowly underdog. In the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that if they lose this game, they go home. So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability. The favorites in the NFL don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity to score another two if they can. The unwritten rule in the NFL (don’t run up the score) goes out the window in January as opposing coaches and players don’t frown on having another team pile on. They would do it if the roles were reversed!

3. HOME SWEET HOME!

It is widely recognized that home field advantage in the NFL is important. Regular season spreads are routinely adjusted by about 2.5 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot be overstated. Home squads don’t have to travel after a long brutal season. The home field energy from the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays a big role (just ask a warm weather team like Tampa Bay having to travel to Green Bay or Buffalo in January). And, the better team usually “earned” home field advantage by playing awesome football for 16 weeks. The lines-makers typically cannot adjust the spread enough to account for these factors. Over the past eight seasons, home teams have covered the spread nearly 64% of the time! Home underdogs do even better. Home dogs are very rare but typically do very well against the spread. This year of course we have Cincinnati installed as a home dog to division rival Pittsburgh.

4. STATISTICAL HANDICAPPING INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE

In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the advantage in key statistical areas usually win and cover. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.

Keep these items in mind when handicapping the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl. My postseason picks utilize systems built around these variables.

**Washington/TAMPA BAY UNDER 37 (Saturday 4:30 Eastern)

The Skins took a 5-6 midseason record and turned it into 10-6 final record as they come storming into the playoffs. Tampa finished the regular season a bit better at 11-5. Earlier this season, Tampa pulled out a one point victory in a game between these two teams that accumulated 71 total points. This is a very good matchup and one that I expect to have a very different outcome in points scored. Over the past two seasons, Tampa has gone UNDER 66% of the time at home. As a home favorite, as they are in this game, the percentage improves to 75%. Joe Gibbs likes defense. His team is ranked 9th overall in defense this year. As the coach of the Skins, his teams have gone UNDER 65% of the time in all games played. As an underdog, that figure improves to 74%! And, you can see how he relies on his defense in big games. In all games vs. winning teams (favorite and underdog), Gibbs-coached Redskins teams have gone 75% UNDER the total. Think Gruden is thinking offense here or defense? Glad to be back in the playoffs after his post-Super Bowl hiatus, he remembers what got him there three years ago. Tampa's defense finished this season ranked #1 in yards allowed (278 per game). Their worst performance was against these Skins and they are going to come out fired up to atone for that. Two stars on the UNDER here.

*Jacksonville/NEW ENGLAND OVER 37.5 (Saturday 8:00 Eastern)

Who wants a piece of New England? No one right now. Especially not at home. New England actually has a chip on their shoulder as they are talking about making a statement here to show all of their mid-season doubters how wrong they were. Going against Bellichick and Brady has been pure death in the playoffs and thus we see a big line here. My gut says they'll cover it but I don't have enough statistical or historical evidence to make a call on that one. Can the Jags score in this game? I think they can score (enough) to force an OVER. While not known as an offensive powerhouse, the Jags actually scored 25 points per game this season. Against good defenses they only managed 15 PPG and that's probably about what they will score in this one (14-17 points). That leaves 21-24 from New England to get the OVER. The Pats really picked up steam at the end of the season, especially on offense. In their last four games, they averaged 30 points per game and that included a game against Tampa Bay (NFL #1 defense). With Brady playing at his peak, this team can score against anyone, including Jacksonville. I know Jacksonville's defense is very good. But that doesn't scare Brady one iota. The Pats put up 28 against Tampa a few weeks back and that is a much better defense. And who would be shocked if this New England defense scored once or twice? The clincher? Several key Jacksonville defenders are out or questionable including a starting linebacker, both starting defensive ends, and a starting safety. January is New England time and they will score enough here to get the OVER. One star on the OVER.

**NEW YORK GIANTS -2.5 over Carolina (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

How good is this Giants team? Overall they were 11-5 on the season and 10-5 ATS. Very good. But wait. Let's take a look at home/away. In the Meadowlands these guys were nearly unstoppable going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. One ATS loss came against Denver and they really had just one letdown game against the Vikings to kill a perfect home record. They won by 13 points on average in those games. Now, Carolina played well on the road this year but they did so against very weak competition including Miami (early season), Arizona, Detroit, Buffalo and New Orleans. Carolina hasn't faced an offense near this good all year. The best offense they have faced is... well. It's hard to say. I guess it was New England, and then Arizona. New England put up 27 on them and Arizona, 24. Against good defenses, New York scored 24 against Denver, and 56 against Washington in two games. Carolina will have their hands full with the likes of Buress, Barber, Toomer and Shockey. And, don't discount a New York defense that, after a slow start, has gelled into a solid unit. Now that the playoffs are here, many are predicting another Carolina Superbowl run. But, the Panthers lack something very important that they had last time around - a running game. Carolina has been here before but I give the intangible edge to Eli Manning and the Giants in this game. He showed us multiple times this year that he can drive for a key score under immense pressure. Coughlin is 76% as a home favorite of under 3 points in his career. The Giants home field advantage is big and the playoffs magnify it five-fold. G-Men for two stars.

***CINCINNATI +3 over Pittsburgh (Sunday 4:30 Eastern)

On paper, this is all Pitsburgh. They have the statistical advantage in every defensive category as well as the rushing game on offense. They steamroll into the playoffs off 4 straight wins and covers winning those games by a combined score of 115-33. In three of those games, they held their opponents to single-digits and one was a 41-0 shutout of Cleveland. They have momentum while Cincinnati apparently does not. The Bengals have lost two straight to limp in and they've given up 74 points in those two losses. If you were concerned with Cincy's defense before those two games, what about now? And, Pittsburgh has won four straight road playoff games and made it to the AFC Championship last year. Now that we've layed out the obvious case for Pittsburgh, let's discuss why we are going to go hard against all of that. In fact, all of that stuff above is precisely why we are going to back the Bengals. You see, history tells us that Cincy is the STRONG play here. First off, they are a playoff home underdog. These situations are rare but blindly playing them would have notched you a 71% win record over the past twenty five years. Think about it - the home team had a better record through 16 games. Why are they the dog? In this case, it has a lot to do with recent performance of the two teams. Pitt's performance is meaningful as they needed to win to get in. But, Cincinnati's performance was meaningless. But, there's more. A lot more. The Bengals fall into a system that backs certain playoff home dogs or small favorites that is a perfect 9-0 ATS since 1984. The latest win came in last year's playoffs when New England was a 1 point favorite to Indianapolis and won 20-3 vs. a red hot Colts team. In addition, teams that allow tons of points in their last two games do very well (76%) in their first playoff games while teams that enter off outstanding defensive efforts do very poorly. The public overreacts to recent events. Also, teams entering off a couple of losses (both SU and ATS) typically do very well in their first game. See a pattern here? It's a contrarian play as everyone and their mother jumps on the "obvious" team. Meanwhile, the home team (that earned that distinction by playing great football) is chomping at the bit to show the world that they should've been installed as the favorite. This is Cincinnati's first real shot in a long time and they are gonna play their hearts out and play above themselves, at least for this game. The home dog is a rare, good bed. But as I said, I don't just play them blindly. In this case, the other circumstances make it a very strong play. Cincinnati plus the points for three stars.