darrell,

Well, we've made it to the final week of the regular season. We're 58% on the season and coming off a 4-1 week. Five picks in this final week.

Here's the status of my season team win totals picks with one game left to be played:

Official Picks (will end up 4-1 or 3-1-1 or 2-2-1)
Philadelphia UNDER 11.5 Wins - already won
Tampa Bay OVER 7.5 Wins - already won
Buffalo OVER 8 Wins - already lost
Atlanta UNDER 9.5 Wins - Will win or lose this week
KC OVER 9 Wins - Will win or push this week

Leans (5 wins, 2 losses)
San Diego OVER 8.5 Wins - already won
Minnesota UNDER 9.5 Wins - already won
Oakland UNDER 8 Wins - already won
Denver OVER 8.5 Wins - already won
St. Louis UNDER 8.5 Wins - already won
Jacksonville UNDER 8.5 Wins - already lost
Dallas UNDER 8.5 Wins - already lost

My Week 17 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

**CLEVELAND +3 over Baltimore (1:00 Eastern)
**Baltimore/CLEVELAND UNDER 37

Both of these teams are out of the playoffs so we really don't have anything too strange about this game. Yet, somehow we get a division home underdog with a visitor that is 0-7 this season (0-10 dating back to last season) on the road. Kyle Boller has certainly improved over the past couple of weeks. But, who has he faced? Green Bay and Minnesota. Two poor defenses. Why is everyone so ready to give this guy a "pass" just because he beat two horrible defenses? His numbers on the year are still atrocious. On the road, Baltimore has lost by an average score of 13-25. And, those games included some pretty bad opponents (Tennessee, Detroit). Cleveland is off a terribly embarassing loss last week to the Steelers. They DO NOT want to go into the offseason on that note. They will be working very hard this week and will leave it all on the field on Sunday in an effort to erase the memory of last week. Teams scoring <14 points per game coming off a game in which they scored less than 10 are a solid 13-6 ATS this year (68%). And, underdogs off a terrible rushing performance vs. an opponent that had a great defensive rushing performance last week are 1-0 this season and 75% lifetime. Don't get me wrong. Charlie Frye and company won't be lighting it up against this Baltimore defense. This will be a low scoring game. The first matchup this season ended in a 16-3 score. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER this season in conference games and 9-2 UNDER in expected close games (+3 to -3) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is 11-4 UNDER in all games this season including a perfect 7-0 vs. losing teams. Games with a total between 35.5 and 42 involving two bad teams with one having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games have gone UNDER 67% of the time since 1983 (77-38). This will be a low scoring hard fought game which will come down to the end. I'll take the field goal in a game like that. Two stars on the Browns and two stars on the UNDER.

**NY JETS +1.5 over Buffalo (1:00 Eastern)

The Bills pulled off an impressive victory over Cincinnati last week. All of the public squares who laid a couple of house payments on the Bengals now want a piece of Buffalo this week against the lowly Jets. But does Buffalo deserve to be a road favorite here? I don't think so. Buffalo has always matched up pretty well against Cincy and the Bengals were flat. This is a new week. Another reason this line has shifted towards the Bills is the performance of the Jets on Monday night. Everyone in the nation saw the Patriots tear them up. The Jets have been hit hard by injuries but they are still better statistically than Buffalo. Buffalo is ranked last in rushing defense and 29th overall on defense. They are ranked 29th in total offense. Away from home the Bills are 1-6 straight up yet they are the favorite here. Teams off a big upset road win fare very poorly the next week in the NFL. Remember just three weeks ago when the Dolphins went into San Diego as a two touchdown underdog and beat the Chargers 23-21? Well, the next week the Fins hosted these New York Jets laying nine points. They won but did not cover. I like the Jets to play hard at home and get the W. Two stars on New York here.

**Cincinnati/KANSAS CITY UNDER 46 (1:00 Eastern)

OK, let's face it. Neither of these teams will have anything to play for here. Cincinatti wrapped up the AFC North weeks ago and threw away their shot at a first round bye by losing last week. KC would need a win by Denver (11 point dogs) and a win by Detroit (13.5 point dogs) to have something to play for here. Not going to happen. Even with Carson Palmer playing in this one (probably won't), I like the UNDER. Kansas City is coming off a very emotionally tough win over San Diego last week. With nothing to play for here, I expect their normally potent offense to be a bit flat. Cincinnati's defense was torched last week by, of all teams, Buffalo. As a result, they'll be playing hard in this one to end the season on a good note. Games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points in the last two weeks of the regular season, featuring a team off a win against a division rival (KC over SD) have gone UNDER 23-4 (85%) over the last 10 seasons! Two stars on the UNDER.

**New Orleans/TAMPA BAY UNDER 37.5 (1:00 Eastern)

The Bucs rank 8th in the league in scoring defense, 4th in yards per play given up and 2nd in total yards allowed (behind Chicago by only a smidgeon). Think New Orleans is going to produce much offense here? Not with the 5th worst offense in the league. Tampa has something to play for and their defense can be downright mean. They are still feeling a bit like it's "us against the world" and they would like to make a statement heading into the playoffs. I think New Orleans will struggle to reach double digits in this game. Over the past three seasons, The Bucs are 14-3 UNDER vs. losing teams as they just shut them down. This includes a perfect 7-0 UNDER vs. teams that score less than 17 per game (New Orleans is averaging 14.8). They are also 8-1 UNDER off a win this season and 13-5 UNDER when the total is in this range (35.5 - 42). Two stars on the UNDER here.

**St. Louis/DALLAS OVER 43.5 (8:30 Eastern)

In what will be the final 2005 regular season game, the Cowboys are instilled as huge favorites over the troubled Rams. I've bashed the Rams here enough so I won't go into it too much. Their defense is so bad that they could give up 3/4ths of this total to Dallas. The Rams are ranked near the very bottom of the barrel in almost every key defensive category and they play just terrible on the road, giving up 31 points per game. Their offense however performs about average on the road, scoring 22 per game. The Cowboys found some offense last week and I think they carry that momentum into this game as Julius Jones and Marion Barber go off. Bledsoe, when not pressured, can pick you apart. If Carolina or Washington losses earlier, the Boys will be in the playoffs with a win. Even if they aren't playing for a spot, I think they score a lot here. Why rest players when you have no following game? Jamie Martin is back for St. Louis and he gives them the best chance to score points. The Rams know they have NO defense so their offense will just air it out here as they have no reason to hold back. Dallas is 18-3 OVER at home vs. good passing teams (61%+ completion) since 1992. This is a turf game which means lots of Rams points. Two stars on the OVER here.