darrell,

Three picks for Week 16 on Saturday...

My Week 16 NFL Computer Simulations are available for viewing. These simulations are based on a Super Computer playing each game tens of thousands of times. Use them as an input to your handicapping - not a replacement. The computer can't take into account emotion or situations which are critical to successful NFL handicapping.

Good luck, darrell!

**San Diego/KANSAS CITY UNDER 50 (1:00 Eastern Saturday)

San Diego is off the most impressive win of the season in the NFL. As big dogs they went into Indy and knocked off the undefeated Colts. How many people really thought they would win that game? Really? I hand it to the Chargers. It may be too little too late though as they have an uphill battle on their hands for playoff contention. Kansas City has won 17 straight at Arrowhead in December including a big win against Denver three weeks ago. And yet again they find themselves as underdogs here. But, they followed that Denver win with two straight losses which puts them in a very difficult position to make the playoffs. Their defense is the reason they are in trouble, again. The last three weeks they have allowed 27, 31 and 27. They've allowed 27+ in nearly half of their games this year. Of course, they are scoring again this year at 25 per game. But, this total is too high. First off, two of the last three games were against very good offenses (Denver, Giants). The other was on the road against a team that had an air-it-out gameplan against the Chiefs to try to stay with them (Dallas). People quickly forget that the Chiefs held their prior three opponents to 14, 17 and 16 points respectively. On the road, they held San Diego to 28 in the first matchup and I expect them to keep it in the twenties in this one. San Diego's off a draining and emotional win. It wouldn't surprrise me if the Bolts are somewhat flat this week after that Colts game, especially on offense. And, the SD defense has been spectacular the last few weeks. They held their last five opponents (including the high-powered Colts) to an average of 15.4 points per game. Kansas City's offense is not what it has been in the past and they may struggle to reach 20 this game. Larry Johnson has been outstanding but he'll be facing the top-rated run defense in the league on Saturday. San Diego is 7-2 UNDER their last nine while KC has gone UNDER five out of their last eight. Two stars on this game to go UNDER the total.

**ARIZONA -1 over Philadelphia (4:05 Eastern Saturday)

We were on Philly as our top-rated play last week. They were facing a terrible St. Louis team with an awful defense and getting over a field goal. Philly pulled off the win but how much are they going to have left this week travelling to the desert? In fact, I think they will take this game a bit lightly. Heck, they have nothing to play for but pride and they got a big dose of it last week - so less need this week. They won on the road last week so they'll subconciously be putting in a little less effort this week ("We did it once, why not again? It's only Arizona and they don't even have their starting QB"). Meanwhile, AZ will be up a bit more for this one. They are coming off a very embarrasing loss to Houston. After losing to a team with one win, you tell yourself "that ain't happening again dammit!" And, with their starting QB out, the rest of the team knows they need to put forth 110%. I expect Arizona to come out swinging while Philly to be a bit flat. In what promises to be a close game, the Cardinals have an edge with the best kicker in the league in Neil Rackers. With 4 field goals in his final two games, he'll break the NFL record of 39 set by Olindo Mare in 1999 and Jeff Wilkens in 2003. That's the most I've discussed kickers all season and it's probably too much so we'll move on. The Eagles' win last week was either amazing or points out how bad the Rams are. Let us not forget that the Eagles are without their three best players (McNabb, Owens and Westbrook). And, Mike McMahon had three picks last week to boost his number to 6 (vs. 2 TDs). On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles come in with the 7th worst defense in the league. Yes, Warner is out but the Cards have a big situational edge here. Two stars on Arizona.

**Indianapolis/SEATTLE OVER 42.5 (4:15 Eastern Saturday)

So much for a great matchup. With Indy's loss last week, the luster on this game has has worn off quickly. It would have been a potential Super Bowl matchup but now Indy will rest starters. They'll likely see a half of play in this one as they have nothing to play for here of significance with home field in the playoffs wrapped up two weeks ago and the perfect season gone. This is the first game in about a year that the Colts are underdogs. The last? Late last season when they rested starters against Denver - a game they lost 34-10. Despite the fact that Indy will rest starters for a portion of the game, the fact remains that these are the two highest scoring teams in the NFL. And, Seattle will have no problem racking up points here given the opportunity. Matt Hasselbeck is the NFC's top passer and the last two weeks he has completed a ridiculous 81% of his passes on way to >500 yards and 7 touchdowns with one interception. And, oh yeah, the Seabags have Shaun Alexander who has already rushed for over 1600 yards and 24 touchdowns. Yowser! If anything is suspect for Seattle, it's their defense. Points-wise it's not bad at all. But, they haven't faced many high-powered offenses this year. To the contrary they faced Jacksonville, Philly, Dallas, and Arizona, Houston and San Francisco twice each. Safety Ken Hamlin is out for the season and this week cornerbacks Kelly Herndon and Andre Dyson will sit out. Seattle will likely attempt to mimic what San Diego did last week which is bring a lot of pressure on Manning. But, you can bet Dungy and Manning have worked on that this week and will have some surprises in store when the blitzes fly. Defensive gambling could lead to some big scoring plays for Indy. Seattle has gone over 9-4 this season while Indy is 6-3 OVER since Manning and the offense started clicking in week 6. Back to Hasselbeck's high completion performance: Indianapolis is 8-1 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 2 seasons. And, in regards to Alexander, the Colts are 11-1 OVER on the road versus good rushing teams that average > 4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992. In non-conference games over the past two seasons, Seattle is 7-0 OVER and they are 14-5 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9 over the same span. Two stars on this to go OVER.